Gameweek 5 produced 82 substitutions across ten Premier League matches. On 81 occasions the player who came off and the player who replaced him reached a tally between them that the starter had not reached alone.
That is the whole column. Under bet365's Sub On Play On and the equivalent rules elsewhere, a replacement's tally continues the line, so the pair's combined figure is the one that matters on those markets. Nobody else computes it, and it produces a different set of names every week.
Conor Gallagher, six minutes, six thresholds. He replaced Sandro Tonali at 84 minutes in Tottenham Hotspur's 2-3 home defeat to Aston Villa and in those six minutes had a shot, put it on target, made three tackles and committed a foul.
Three tackles in six minutes is the number to sit with. It cleared the 1+, 2+ and 3+ tackle thresholds on his own account, and it took the Tonali pair to nine tackles between them. Tonali had come off with no shots on target and no fouls; the pair finished with one of each.
Not every market behaves the same way. The column below counts how often, when a starter came off exactly one short of a threshold, the pair's combined total went on to reach it.
| Line | Starters short | One short | Pair reached it | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3+ shots | 67 | 20 | 9 | 45% |
| 3+ tackles | 69 | 16 | 7 | 43.8% |
| 1+ fouls | 44 | 44 | 17 | 38.6% |
| 1+ shots | 25 | 25 | 9 | 36% |
| 2+ tackles | 53 | 22 | 7 | 31.8% |
| 2+ shots | 47 | 22 | 6 | 27.3% |
| 1+ tackles | 31 | 31 | 8 | 25.8% |
| 2+ fouls | 68 | 24 | 6 | 25% |
| 1+ shots on target | 56 | 56 | 9 | 16.1% |
| 2+ shots on target | 75 | 19 | 3 | 15.8% |
The shape is the same as it has been all season. Shots and tackles move most - a substitute attacker or midfielder arrives and immediately contributes to both - while shots on target barely move at all, because a replacement needs not just an attempt but a good one in twenty minutes. The 1+ fouls line carries the most volume by a distance: 44 starters came off short of it and 17 pairs got there anyway.
Three more cleared six or four thresholds from the bench:
Shorter still, and worth noting because the minutes are so small:
Across 50 Premier League fixtures this season, 426 thresholds have been reached by a substitution pair that the starter had not reached alone. The distribution by line:
| Line | Times reached by the pair |
|---|---|
| 1+ fouls | 59 |
| 2+ fouls | 57 |
| 2+ tackles | 54 |
| 1+ shots | 47 |
| 3+ tackles | 46 |
| 2+ shots | 41 |
| 1+ shots on target | 40 |
| 3+ shots | 37 |
| 1+ tackles | 33 |
| 2+ shots on target | 12 |
Fouls and tackles sit at the top because they are the thresholds a substitute can reach without needing the ball to fall kindly. That is the practical read of the whole series: the markets where a replacement's minutes count for most are the low-threshold physical ones, not the shooting lines.
Every figure above is arithmetic on our own match data. It counts thresholds that a substitution pair reached between them and the starter did not reach alone.
It says nothing about whether a bookmaker offered any of these lines, whether anybody backed one, whether a Super Sub rule applied to that market at that bookmaker, or how anything settled. We cannot see bets and we do not claim to. The value here is that the underlying match data is settled fact, and that nobody else counts it.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Match data from our own database. This column reports match events, not betting outcomes.