Carabao Cup third round, three La Liga games and a Championship midweek. Twenty-six fixtures priced on our board, and one feature of it worth naming before anything else: not a single favourite rates above its price today.
The shortest side our model rates as value is Rayo Vallecano at 13/10. Everything below that is priced ahead of what we make it. So the value today sits in goals markets and in a handful of big prices. Everything here comes from the Acca Sheet and the Player Props board, and the rule stands: we only name a selection the model rates above its price.
Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur, 20:00. The headline tie, and the model wants no part of the result. It makes no goals at both ends 43 percent at 6/4, which is 5.1 points clear of its price and the biggest gap in the goals market anywhere tonight. The reason is stark: Tottenham Hotspur have not scored in four league games. Their only goals this season came in this competition, against Charlton Athletic. Under 2.5 goals at 2.60 is 6.2 points clear, the same read expressed twice. Our full preview has the detail.
Ipswich Town v Arsenal, 20:00. Arsenal have won five in a row and conceded in only one of them. Ipswich Town have conceded in every league game they have played. No goals at both ends is 54 percent at 1.80, and under 2.5 goals at 2.35 is the better-priced version at 5.7 points clear. full preview here.
West Ham United v Fulham, 19:45. The one cup tie where the model likes a winner: West Ham United at 2.82, 36 percent against an implied 33, and they have won four of their last five.
Peterborough United v Barnsley, 19:30. The best goals game on the card. Both teams to score is 62 percent, the highest projection anywhere today and 4.4 points clear of 8/13; over 2.5 goals is 60 percent at 1.70 and 5.2 clear. Barnsley have seen goals at both ends in four of their last five.
Elche v Real Madrid, 20:30. Goals at both ends is 58 percent at 3/4, 4.5 clear of its price, and it is the leg we have taken on today's treble. Elche have not won in five but have scored in four of them, and Real Madrid were beaten 1-0 at Real Betis a fortnight ago, so the clean sheet is not the formality the price implies. full preview here.
Deportivo Alaves v Valencia, 19:00. The biggest disagreement on the whole card: Valencia at 17/4 is 25 percent on our numbers against an implied 18, a gap of 7.2 points. The counter is that Valencia have not won in five and Deportivo Alaves have won three of their last five at home. Model against form book, and we said the same thing about Villarreal last night before they lost.
Rayo Vallecano v Espanyol, 18:00. The only favourite anywhere on the card the model rates above its price, at 13/10 for 46 percent. Worth noting for that fact alone.
Season numbers for all three are on the La Liga xG table and the La Liga power rankings.
Middlesbrough v Millwall, 19:45. Goals at both ends at 58 percent and 4 clear of its price, the third leg of today's treble.
Bristol City v Lincoln City, 19:45. Lincoln City at 3.70 is 28.5 percent against an implied 25, and the model also makes no goals at both ends 48 percent here.
Falkirk v Hearts, 19:45. Under 2.5 goals at 2.10 is 6.4 points clear of its price, the joint-biggest gap in that market today.
Form ordering for the English second tier is on the Championship power rankings.
Three, all on the Daily Acca with a settled public ledger behind them:
Yesterday was nought from three and -2.00pts, which is in the ledger along with everything else. The season stands at 11 winners from 48 and +2.24pts.
Projection first, price second, never edge - thin-sample edge percentages overstate, and a large gap on a leg that lands one time in five is not a bet. Every selection above is one the model rates above the price on offer, and every player line is checked against predicted lineups.
Two honest caveats tonight. The cup ties are a rotation risk: our projections assume predicted XIs and neither Liverpool nor Arsenal owe us a first-choice team, though under the void rule a named player who does not start removes his leg rather than losing it. And the card markets are the weakest part of any of these fixtures, because our bookings model does not yet account for the referee - the appointment tables are at Premier League referees if you want the work our model is not doing.
The method is written up in how to use the Statz Best Bets tool and how our football predictions work. The round-by-round record is at Premier League betting predictions, which finished Gameweek 4 at 7-2 and +3.10pts, its best round of the season.
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18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes a settled record for every column, win or lose.