Ipswich Town host Arsenal at Portman Road on Tuesday 15 September, kick-off 20:00 UK, in the Carabao Cup third round. Arsenal have won their last five matches in all competitions and conceded in only one of them.
Ipswich Town, meanwhile, have been one of the most watchable teams in the country, for reasons that are not entirely to their credit.
Arsenal have won five from five: 2-0 at Sunderland, 1-0 away at Napoli in the Champions League, 2-1 against Chelsea, 1-0 at Aston Villa and 3-0 against Coventry City. Four clean sheets in that run, and the only game in which both sides scored was the Chelsea win. They lead the Premier League on twelve points with one goal conceded all season.
Ipswich Town are the opposite proposition. Seven scored and ten conceded in four league games: a 3-2 win at Crystal Palace, a 0-2 home defeat to Liverpool, a 5-2 hiding at Manchester United and a 2-1 win over Sunderland. They also beat Leicester City 3-1 in the previous round of this competition. Their underlying numbers on the Premier League xG table are 5.2 expected goals created against 7.0 conceded, so the chaos is real rather than bad luck.
The two have met twice recently: Arsenal won 4-0 at Portman Road and 1-0 at home.
The model makes no goals at both ends 54 percent at 1.80, against a fair implied 52. Under 2.5 goals is 46 percent at 2.35, which is 5.7 points clear of its price and the better value of the two. Ipswich Town to win is 11 percent at 10.0.
Both calls lean on the same thing: Arsenal have conceded once in five matches, and Ipswich Town have not kept a clean sheet in any of their four league games. The model expects Arsenal to control it without the game becoming an exhibition.
Tonight's Carabao Cup double, pairing this with the Anfield tie, is on the Daily Acca.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Taken off the player props board this morning, prices move.
The referee is Peter Bankes, averaging four yellows across two games this season - too small a sample to lean on, and our bookings projections are referee-blind in any case. The season table is on the Premier League referees page.
One caveat over every number here: this is the Carabao Cup third round. Our projections are built on predicted XIs and neither manager owes us a first-choice team, so treat each player line as conditional on the team sheet. Under the void rule a named player who does not start takes his leg out of the bet rather than losing it.
Season numbers for everyone named here are on the player stats hub.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Arsenal are the best defensive side in England right now by some distance, and Ipswich Town have conceded in every league game they have played. A rotated Arsenal is still likely to be too organised for this, and the value is in the clean sheet rather than the winner.
Prediction: Ipswich Town 0-2 Arsenal.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes a settled record for every column, win or lose.