Updated 2 November 2026.
Athletico PR welcome Vasco da Gama to the Arena de Baixada on Wednesday 4 November, with kick-off at 22:30 UK. The hosts are 5th in the Campeonato Brasileiro and the visitors 13th, though Vasco rank 4th for shots on target per game and 5th highest for over 2.5 goals, and they have scored in four of their last five league and cup games. Athletico PR have lost two of their last three league games.
Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance and puts over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Athletico PR sit 5th on 54 points from 33 games, with 15 wins, 9 draws and 9 defeats and a goal difference of plus 10. Their defence is the strength: they concede 1.21 a game, the 6th fewest in the division, and keep a clean sheet in 24% of matches, the 7th highest rate. Up front they score 1.52 per game, the 5th most.
The recent run has been patchy, with one win in their last five. They were beaten 2-0 at Grêmio on 30 October and drew 1-1 at Vitória on 24 October. Before that came a 2-0 home defeat to Palmeiras on 17 October, a 4-1 win at Chapecoense on 12 October and a 2-2 draw at home to Atlético-MG on 8 October. They are among the more foul-prone sides, with 13.73 fouls a game, the 5th most, yet they collect only 2.12 cards, the 4th fewest.
Vasco da Gama are 13th on 38 points from 32 games, with 10 wins, 8 draws and 14 defeats and a goal difference of minus 9. They concede 1.53 a game, the 4th most in the league, and keep a clean sheet in only 13% of games, the 4th lowest rate. Up front they average 5.31 shots on target per game, the 4th most, and take the 5th most corners at 5.84.
Their last five have brought two wins and three defeats. They lost 4-1 at home to Flamengo on 29 October, after winning 3-2 at home to Corinthians on 24 October, losing 3-1 at home to Boca Juniors in the Copa Sudamericana on 21 October and losing 1-0 at São Paulo on 18 October. The 1-0 win at Boca Juniors in the Copa Sudamericana on 14 October is the only clean sheet in those five games. Vasco average 1.97 cards a game, the 2nd fewest in the league.
Both sides are in the top half of the division for both teams to score, with Vasco at 63%, the 7th highest, and Athletico PR at 58%, the 10th highest. Our projection has Athletico on 5.47 shots on target and Vasco on 4.29.
Athletico PR possible starting lineup:
Mycael; Arthur Dias, Aguirre, Esquivel; Gilberto, Jádson, Luiz Gustavo; Mendoza, João Cruz, Leozinho; Viveros
Vasco da Gama possible starting lineup:
Léo Jardim; José Luis RodrÃguez, Robert Renan, Cuiabano; Gabriel Pereira, Thiago Mendes, Santiago Sosa; Hinestroza, Lescano; Colidio, Brenner
Kevin Viveros has committed at least one foul in 23 straight games, averaging 2.3 a game over the run. He has also had a shot on target in four of his last five, and bet365 offer 1.17 on another.
Stiven Mendoza has had a shot in eight straight games, averaging 1.9 a game, and is 1.13 at Ladbrokes to make it nine.
Facundo Colidio has had a shot in 11 straight games for Vasco, averaging 3.5 a game, and Ladbrokes offer 1.04 on another.
José Luis RodrÃguez has had a shot in five straight games, averaging 2.6 a game, and has made at least one tackle in four straight.
We back Athletico PR narrowly at 2.20 with Coral, ahead of the draw at 3.60 and a Vasco win at 3.40 with bet365. Both teams to score is 1.62 with bet365, and over 2.5 goals is 1.75 there.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Athletico PR win | 2.20 (Coral) | 39% |
| Draw | 3.60 (Coral) | 27% |
| Vasco da Gama win | 3.40 (bet365) | 34% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 (bet365) | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 (bet365) | 55% |
Our prediction is Athletico PR 1-1 Vasco da Gama. 1-1 is the likeliest single scoreline at 13%, though we make Athletico PR 39% to win against 34% for Vasco da Gama. Our model expects 1.49 goals from the hosts and 1.38 from the visitors, and puts a clean sheet at 25% for Athletico and 23% for Vasco.
The bet builder pairs RodrÃguez for a shot, Viveros for a shot on target and Thiago Mendes for a shot. RodrÃguez has had a shot in each of his last five games, Viveros a shot on target in four of his last five and Mendes a shot in four of his last five.
Athletico PR vs Vasco da Gama kicks off at 22:30 UK on Wednesday 4 November at the Arena de Baixada in the 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro, with Athletico PR 5th on 54 points and Vasco da Gama 13th on 38 points.
We predict a 1-1 draw between Athletico PR and Vasco da Gama in the 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro, the likeliest single scoreline at 13%, though we make Athletico PR 39% to win, Vasco da Gama 34% and the draw 27%.
Athletico PR are narrow favourites against Vasco da Gama in the 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro, with our model giving them a 39% chance of a win against 34% for Vasco da Gama and 27% for a draw.
Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance in Athletico PR vs Vasco da Gama in the 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro, and both sides rank in the top half of the league for the rate, Vasco da Gama at 63% and Athletico PR at 58%.
Athletico PR are 5th in the 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro on 54 points from 33 games, with 15 wins, 9 draws and 9 defeats, while Vasco da Gama are 13th on 38 points from 32 games, ahead of their meeting on Wednesday.
Facundo Colidio has had at least one shot in 11 straight Campeonato Brasileiro games for Vasco da Gama in 2026, averaging 3.5 shots a game, going into the match at Athletico PR on Wednesday 4 November.
Athletico PR's possible starting lineup against Vasco da Gama in the 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro has Mycael in goal, Kevin Viveros up front and Stiven Mendoza, João Cruz and Leozinho in the 3 attacking midfield positions behind him.