Updated 2 November 2026.
Flamengo welcome Grêmio to the Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho on Wednesday 4 November, with kick-off at 22:30 UK in the Campeonato Brasileiro. The league leaders are 36 points clear of their opponents, with 73 points from 33 games against Grêmio's 37, and we give the hosts a 79% chance of winning.
Flamengo have scored more than anyone in the division and conceded the 2nd fewest. Grêmio come in off two straight league wins.
Flamengo are 1st with 22 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats, and a goal record of 68 for and 28 against. They average 2.06 goals a game, the most in the league. At the back they concede 0.85 a game, the 2nd fewest, and they have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their matches, the 2nd highest rate. Their shots on target average of 5.76 a game is also the most, and 64% of their league games have gone over 2.5 goals, the highest in the competition.
Flamengo are unbeaten in their last five. They won 4-1 at Vasco on 29 October and 3-2 against Atlético-MG three days before that. Before that came a 0-0 with Estudiantes in the Copa Libertadores, which followed a 3-0 win at Bahia. They are unbeaten in their last ten league and cup games, with six wins and four draws.
Grêmio are 15th in the table with 9 wins, 10 draws and 14 defeats, scoring 37 and conceding 44. They manage 1.12 goals a game, the 7th fewest, and their 3.82 shots on target per game is the 3rd fewest. They are also the 2nd most carded side in the league at 2.82 a game.
They beat Athletico PR 2-0 on 30 October and won 1-0 at Coritiba four days earlier. Before those wins came a 2-4 home defeat to Cruzeiro on 18 October, a 1-1 home draw with Internacional on 11 October and a 1-1 draw at Remo on 7 October.
Flamengo possible starting lineup:
Rossi; Varela, Léo Ortiz, Léo Pereira, Ayrton Lucas; Pulgar, Jorginho; Carrascal, Arrascaeta, Lino; Pedro
Grêmio possible starting lineup:
Grando; Balbuena, Gustavo Martins, Wallace; Noriega, Villasanti, Marlon, João Pedro; Braithwaite, Amuzu, Enamorado
Samuel Lino has had a shot in nine straight games, averaging 3.4 a game over the run, and bet365 offer 1.01 on another.
Giorgian de Arrascaeta has managed two or more shots in five consecutive matches, also averaging 3.4. Bet365 offer 1.17 on him to make it six.
Francis Amuzu has had a shot in six straight games, averaging 2.2 a game over the run, and bet365 offer 1.40 on him to shoot again.
Wallace has made at least one tackle in 11 straight games for Grêmio, averaging 1.5 a game over the run.
Ayrton Lucas has shot in four of his last five games, though he averages one a game. Bet365 offer 1.20 on him for a shot, and he pairs with Amuzu in the two-leg bet builder.
We back Flamengo, who are 1.20 at Ladbrokes to win. The draw is 8.00 at bet365 and Grêmio are 15.00 there.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Flamengo win | 1.20 (Ladbrokes) | 79% |
| Draw | 8.00 (bet365) | 15% |
| Grêmio win | 15.00 (bet365) | 6% |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 (Ladbrokes) | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 (bet365) | 63% |
Our prediction is Flamengo 2-0 Grêmio. That scoreline carries a 13% chance, with 3-0 next at 12% and 1-0 at 9%. We project 2.62 goals for the hosts against 0.64 for the visitors, and a Flamengo clean sheet is a 53% chance. Flamengo are projected to take around eight shots on target, while Grêmio are projected at fewer than three.
Flamengo vs Grêmio in the 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro kicks off at 22:30 UK on Wednesday 4 November at the Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, with Flamengo 1st on 73 points and Grêmio 15th on 37 points.
Our prediction for Flamengo vs Grêmio in the 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro is a 2-0 home win, the likeliest single scoreline at 13%, with 3-0 next at 12% and 1-0 at 9%.
Flamengo are strong favourites against Grêmio in the 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro, with our model giving them a 79% chance of winning against 15% for a draw and 6% for a Grêmio win.
We make both teams to score a 44% chance in Flamengo vs Grêmio in the 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro, and Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their league games, the 2nd highest rate.
Ahead of Flamengo vs Grêmio, Flamengo lead the 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro on 73 points from 33 games with 22 wins, while Grêmio are 15th on 37 points from 33 games after winning their last 2 matches.
Before Flamengo vs Grêmio in the 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro, Samuel Lino has had a shot in 9 straight league games and Giorgian de Arrascaeta two or more shots in 5 straight, both averaging 3.4 a game.
Flamengo's possible starting lineup against Grêmio in the 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro has Agustín Rossi in goal and Pedro up front, with Jorge Carrascal, Giorgian de Arrascaeta and Samuel Lino in the 3 attacking midfield positions, while Grêmio's attack is Martin Braithwaite, Francis Amuzu and José Enamorado.