Monday is the thin end of the football week and that is exactly why it is worth working. Twenty-five games are on, five of them in leagues where our player props run, and the shorter the card the less attention the prices get.
Everything below comes from two places: the Acca Sheet, which prices every team market on the day's card against the model's own number, and the Player Props board, which does the same job player by player. The rule is the one we introduced on the Daily Acca last week and have not moved off since: we only name a selection the model rates above its price. Eight cleared that bar today. Prices were taken this morning and move.
The model makes no goals at both ends 60.9 percent in Como against Parma, against a fair implied 58.9 in the 4/7 on offer. It is the highest-rated call in the goals market anywhere on the Monday card.
The case is Parma rather than anything clever. They have scored one goal in their last four matches, and were shut out in three of them: 0-2 at home to Cremonese in the Coppa Italia, 0-2 at Juventus, 0-1 at home to Cagliari. The single goal came in a 1-1 with Monza. Como meanwhile arrive in the best form of anyone on this list, four goals at Genoa and four more against RB Leipzig in the Champions League last week.
One honest caveat: Como have played four of their last five away from home, so there is not much recent evidence of how they defend at the Sinigaglia. The bet leans on Parma's blank sheets.
Our number on Torino defender Pietro Comuzzo to make two or more tackles is 64.3 percent, against an implied 61.7 in the 8/13. He has cleared it in three of his last five, with a seven-tackle game inside that run.
The fixture shape supports it. The model gives Torino only 18 percent at home to Roma, who it rates at 59, so Torino spend the evening defending. Tackle counts follow possession in the direction you would expect, and a centre-back on the wrong side of a 59-18 split gets work.
Per-90 tackle numbers for every player named in this article are on the player stats hub, and the Serie A season ordering is on the Serie A power rankings.
The biggest disagreement in the goals market on the whole card. The model makes over 2.5 goals 59.4 percent here against an implied 54.6, a gap of 4.8 points.
It also likes goals at both ends in the same game at 56.3 percent, 4.8 clear of the 4/5 on offer, so the two are the same read expressed twice. {H('gaziantep-vs-fenerbahe',19746618,'The match page')} carries the full picture. If you want only one of them, take the over: it does not need the home side to score, only the game to be open.
66.8 percent for over 2.5 goals in Inter against Udinese is the highest projection in any goals market on the Monday board, and at 1.50 the implied number is 63.7. The model also rates goals at both ends at 51.3 percent against an implied 48, so it sees Udinese scoring rather than a one-sided rout.
The prop to go with it is Udinese defender Oumar Solet at two or more tackles, 64.3 percent against an implied 61.7. Three of his last five have cleared it, including a five-tackle game. Same logic as Comuzzo: the model has Inter at 76 percent in this fixture, so the visiting defence is where the volume sits.
Season expected-goals numbers for both are on the Serie A xG table.
Villarreal against Real Betis has the two highest-projected player props of the entire Monday card, and both sit in the contact markets rather than the glamour ones.
The team market is worth a line too. Villarreal at 19/20 is 51.5 percent on our numbers against an implied 48.6, and it is the only home side on the Monday card the model rates above the price. It also comes with a warning we put on the Daily Acca this morning: Villarreal have lost their last three and have not won in five. The model and the form book genuinely disagree here, and we are siding with the model while saying so out loud.
La Liga season ordering is on the La Liga power rankings and the underlying numbers are on the La Liga xG table.
Monday Night Football, and the model likes the goals rather than the result. Both teams to score is 59.6 percent against a fair implied 57.6, over 2.5 goals is 57.1 percent at 4/5, and Newcastle United to win at 21/10 is 32.5 against an implied 30.6. All three are above their price, which is unusual for one fixture.
The reason is one number. Newcastle United have the worst expected points total in the Premier League at 2.4, having conceded 6.3 expected goals in three league games while shipping only four actual ones. That is a defence being flattered by finishing, and our Gameweek 4 xG review has the full division-wide picture.
The prop to pair with it is Leeds United midfielder Anton Stach at one or more shots, 89 percent and a shot in all five of his last five. Jacob Ramsey 2+ tackles at 1.67 is the Newcastle United side of the same idea, 62.8 percent with four of his last five clearing it.
The honest counterweight, which we also put in the full match preview: four of the last six meetings between these two finished with two goals or fewer, including two goalless draws. The model does not weight fixture history heavily. You may want to.
Three of the highest projections on the card, in three different games, in three different markets:
Around 8/5 combined, and roughly a 61 percent chance of landing on our numbers. It is a short price with a real probability behind it rather than a long price with none, which is the trade the whole method is built on. Today's cross-match accumulators, with a settled public ledger going back to the start of the season, are on the Daily Acca.
Three team markets did not make the write-ups but cleared the bar, and all three sit outside the big five leagues where the prices get least attention:
Every price on the day's card, model number beside bookmaker number, is on the Acca Sheet. The player-by-player version is on the Player Props board.
We sort by projection first and price second, never by edge. The value feed's edge fields overstate on thin samples, and a large percentage gap on a leg that lands one time in five is not a bet, it is a lottery ticket with a story attached. Every selection above is checked against predicted lineups, because the props feed happily returns bench players.
A note on the card markets, which we have kept light today on purpose: our bookings projections do not yet account for the referee, a gap we wrote up in last week's Referee Watch. Until that lands, the appointment tables at Premier League referees and Serie A referees do work our model does not.
The longer method piece is how to use the Statz Best Bets tool, and the model itself is explained in how our football predictions work. Our columns all carry a settled public record: the Daily Acca ledger and the round-by-round Premier League predictions column, which settled Gameweek 4 at 6-2 with Monday night still to play.
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18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes a settled record for every column, win or lose.