Leeds United vs Newcastle United Predictions and Betting Tips

Leeds United host Newcastle United at Elland Road on Monday 14 September, kickoff 20:00 UK, closing out the round under the lights.

Leeds arrive with no league game yet past two and a half goals, 19th of 20 on that count. They are also in the fixture where the Statz model's biggest disagreement with the market all night is over 2.5 goals. Those two facts are not in conflict, and the expected goals explain why. The full picture is on the Statz match centre.

How the teams arrive

Leeds United are unbeaten in the Premier League: 1-0 winners at Nottingham Forest, then 1-1 at home to Brentford and 1-1 at Brighton & Hove Albion. Exactly one Leeds goal in each of the three. They also went out of the Carabao Cup at Chelsea on Wednesday in a 6-3 defeat, after knocking out Nottingham Forest 2-0 in the previous round.

The scorelines undersell the games badly. Leeds fixtures have produced 8.93 expected goals across those three league matches, 2.98 per game, and returned five actual goals, 1.67 per game. The Brighton draw alone was worth 2.39 to 2.04. Leeds have conceded 5.03 xG and shipped two goals, which is why their 0.67 goals against per game, third in the division, reads better than the performances behind it.

Newcastle United have scored exactly two goals in each of their three league games: 2-2 with Liverpool, 2-0 at Tottenham Hotspur, 2-2 with AFC Bournemouth. They beat Millwall 1-0 in the Carabao Cup in midweek. Six goals from 3.00 xG is the heaviest finishing overperformance in this fixture, and at the other end they have conceded four from 6.28 xG against. Both ends of their record currently flatter them.

Neither club has a lineup published yet, which is normal until roughly an hour before kick-off. Check team news before kick-off.

What the model says

The model makes Leeds United 42.3% to win, Newcastle United 32.3%, with the draw taking the remaining 25.4%. Projected goals are 1.60 to 1.37, on 14.10 shots to 11.97 and 4.49 shots on target to 3.96.

Over 2.5 goals is the standout. The model has it at 57.1% against a price of 1.80, a fair implied 52.6%, so the model sits 4.5 points above the market, the widest gap in the fixture. Both teams to score is 1.62, a fair 57.6%, against a model reading of 59.6%, 2.0 points above. Leeds at 2.38 imply a fair 39.9% against 42.3%, 2.4 points above. Newcastle at 2.88 are the only one of the four the model rates below its price, 32.3% against a fair 33.0%.

The over is the call the record argues against and the underlying numbers support. Between them these two sides have played six league games worth 18.21 expected goals, just over three per game, and returned 15 actual ones. Our Premier League xG table carries the same story across the division.

Statz Team Projections

See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.

Betting angles

Michael Salisbury takes charge, though with one game this season, at 25 fouls and two yellow cards, there is not enough of a sample to lean on. The team numbers are louder: Newcastle United commit 14.67 fouls per game, third most in the division, and pick up 3.00 cards per game, second most. Leeds sit ninth for fouls at 11.33.

The player board has not filled out fully yet, so prop coverage is thinner than a Sunday card. Prices below were the model's numbers at the time of writing, and each assumes the player starts.

• Jacob Ramsey 2+ tackles at 1.91. The model has him at 61.0% on a projection of 2.06 tackles, cleared in four of his last five, recent line 3, 0, 3, 2, 5. The biggest single edge in the fixture.
• James Justin 3+ tackles at 2.10. Model 50.2% on a 2.68 projection, three of his last five, with sevens and sixes in that run.
• Tarik Muharemovic 1+ shot on target at 4.00. The longer-priced one: the model has 29.5% against a price implying 25%, on a 0.35 projection, and the centre-back has hit the line in two of his last five.

Leeds are projected for 15.66 tackles to Newcastle's 14.06, which is the backdrop to both tackle lines. More shots-on-target angles across the card sit on Bet Builder of the Day: Shots on Target, and the full model board is on the daily acca sheet.

Statz Bet Builder

See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.

Prediction

The model's call: Leeds United 2-1 Newcastle United.

That follows the lean rather than promising it. Leeds are the 42.3% side at home, projected for 1.60 goals to 1.37, and the model wants more goals in this game than either team's results column has produced so far.

Newcastle United are the one selection here the model rates below its price, and their 2-2, 2-0, 2-2 start has come from 1.00 expected goals a game. If that finishing settles toward the underlying rate, the 57.1% over is doing more work than the 32.3% away win.

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18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at the time of writing.