Liverpool host Tottenham Hotspur at Anfield on Tuesday 15 September, kick-off 20:00 UK, in the Carabao Cup third round. Liverpool have not lost in five. Tottenham Hotspur have not scored in four league games.
That second number is the whole tie, and it is worse than it sounds.
Liverpool come in on a goalless draw with Fulham on Saturday, having beaten Atletico Madrid 2-1 in the Champions League three days earlier. Before that: 2-0 at Ipswich Town, 2-2 with Nottingham Forest, 2-2 at Newcastle United. Unbeaten, but drawing a lot.
Tottenham Hotspur have played four league games and scored in none of them: 0-0 with Everton, 0-0 at Nottingham Forest, 0-2 at home to Newcastle United, 0-3 at Brentford. Their only goals this season came in this competition, a 5-1 against Charlton Athletic. Our Gameweek 4 xG review put the detail on it: four games, no goals, from 3.7 expected. This is finishing, not a collapse in chance creation, but it has lasted a month.
The head to head does not offer Tottenham Hotspur much either. The last five meetings read 1-1, a 2-1 Liverpool win at Tottenham Hotspur, 5-1 Liverpool, and 4-0 Liverpool in this same competition. Tottenham Hotspur did win the other cup tie in that run, 1-0.
The model makes no goals at both ends 43 percent at 6/4, which is 5.1 points clear of its price and the biggest gap in the goals market anywhere on tonight's card. Under 2.5 goals is 43 percent at 2.60, 6.2 points clear. Tottenham Hotspur to win is 23 percent at 4.75.
Liverpool at 61/100 is the one line the model will not back. It agrees they should be favourites; it does not agree they should be that short, and on a rotation night neither do we.
Today's cross-match slips, including a Carabao Cup double built on this game, are on the Daily Acca.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
From the player props board this morning, prices move.
The referee is Andy Madley, who has averaged five yellows across two games this season. That is a small sample, and our bookings projections do not account for the official at all, so the card board is the softest part of this fixture. The season table is on the Premier League referees page.
One caveat that sits over every number here, and we would rather say it than bury it: this is the Carabao Cup third round. Our projections are built on predicted XIs, and neither manager owes us a first-choice team. Treat every player line below as conditional on the team sheet. Under the void rule a named player who does not start takes his leg out of the bet rather than losing it, which is the one mercy of a rotation night.
Per-90 numbers for every player named here are on the player stats hub.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
A Tottenham Hotspur side that has not scored in four league games, away at Anfield, against opponents who have kept it tight without being ruthless. The model's read is a quiet night rather than a rout, and the price on that is better than the price on Liverpool winning it.
Prediction: Liverpool 2-0 Tottenham Hotspur.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes a settled record for every column, win or lose.