The League One Season So Far: Every Team Ranked on the Numbers

Seven games into League One season is enough to stop calling things a small sample and start reading them. Below is the division ranked on what teams are actually doing rather than what the table has given them for it, with every figure taken from our League One stats page, which covers league games only and updates as the season goes. The underlying expected-goals numbers behind much of it live on our League One xG table.

Two numbers frame the rest. Bradford City have taken 5.7 points more than their underlying numbers say they should have; Wigan Athletic have 5.4 fewer. That is the widest the table has been stretched in either direction.

The clearest single case is Reading. They lead League One for shots at 17.33 a game and for shots inside the box at 12.5, and they are converting 13.5 per cent of them. They sit 8th.

Attacking threat

Ranked on the volume and the quality of what each side creates.

Reading lead League One for shots at 17.33 a game, and take 12.5 of them inside the box. They are scoring 2.33 a game from that, a conversion rate of 13.5 per cent.

Huddersfield Town carve out 5.14 big chances a game, the most in League One, and convert 16.7 per cent of them. Derensili Sanches Fernandes of Huddersfield Town leads the division's players with 6 big chances created.

Reading generate 2.17 expected goals a game and are scoring 2.33, which puts them 0.16 a game ahead of what their chances have been worth. Expected goals weight every shot by how often a chance of that type is scored, so it describes the quality of what a side is creating rather than how the finishing has gone.

Barnsley win 8.57 corners a game. They also hit 23.14 crosses a game, 5th of 24 in the division, which is usually the same story told twice: sides that attack down the flanks force more of both.

Huddersfield Town take 12.71 shots inside the box a game, 78.8 per cent of their total. Shot location is the single biggest driver of chance quality, so this table tends to describe who is creating properly rather than shooting on sight.

Defending

Fewest is best in every table below.

Stockport County concede the fewest shots in League One at 9 a game. Opponents are converting 15.9 per cent of them, which still leaves 1.43 goals against a game and a goals-conceded rank of 13th of 24 - a reminder that a good defence and a good goals-against column are not the same thing.

Reading give up 0.88 expected goals a game, the best figure in League One. They are actually conceding 1.17, which is 0.29 a game more than the chances against them have been worth - the kind of gap that usually closes.

Huddersfield Town concede 3.43 corners a game, fewest in the division and have kept 2 clean sheets in 7. Corners conceded is a decent proxy for how much sustained pressure a side absorbs.

Bradford City concede 1 big chances a game, and opponents are putting away 14.3 per cent of the ones they get. A big chance is one a striker is expected to score, so this is the table that matters most at the defensive end.

Stockport County allow 5.71 shots inside their own box a game, and 63.5 per cent of the shots they face come from there. Keeping opponents outside the area is most of defending.

Possession and play style

How each side plays, rather than how well.

Leicester City play 606.71 passes a game at 87.2 per cent completion, with 68 per cent of the ball. Volume and possession usually travel together; completion rate is what separates keeping the ball from moving it forward.

Bradford City hit 26.57 crosses a game, of which 6.14 find a teammate - an accuracy of 23.1 per cent. A high cross count with a low accuracy is often a side with no other way through.

Bromley commit 15.29 fouls a game, the most in League One, and pick up 1.71 yellow cards a game for it. A high foul count usually means a side that presses hard or breaks play up deliberately. Jamie Carson McDonnell of Oxford United leads the division's players at 3.83 fouls per 90 minutes.

Burton Albion make 20.71 tackles a game, and 30.14 tackles and interceptions combined. Finley Munroe of Blackpool makes the most of any player in the division at 5.47 per 90 minutes.

The players

Minimum 270 minutes for the shooting and creating tables, so a player needs roughly three full games to appear.

Jack Marriott of Reading leads League One with 8 goals from 24 shots, against an expected goals figure of 3.29 - 4.71 more than those chances were worth.

Lewis Bate of Stockport County leads for assists with 4, from 12 chances created and 1 of those big ones. Assists depend on someone else finishing, which is why chances created is the steadier measure of a creator.

Kyle Wootton of Stockport County has taken 27 shots, more than anyone in League One, hitting the target with 9 and scoring 4 - a conversion rate of 14.8 per cent.

Derensili Sanches Fernandes of Huddersfield Town has created 6 big chances, the most in League One, which have so far produced 3 assists. The gap between those two numbers is finishing, not creation.

What the table is hiding

Expected points take every chance a side has created and conceded and ask what a league table would look like if those chances had been taken at an average rate. The gap between that and the real table is the part of the season that has not been earned - in either direction.

None of this says the over-performers are about to collapse or that the under-performers are about to win six in a row. Finishing is a real skill and some sides out-run their numbers for a whole season.

What we can say is what we have measured. Across 1,245 fixtures we tested both halves of this idea. Sides whose results were running more than half a goal a game ahead of what their chances deserved went on to win 3.2 percentage points less often than the model rated them - a real, usable correction. Sides running the same distance behind beat their rating by only 0.8 points, which is close enough to nothing to ignore. So the tradeable half of this table is fading the teams it is flattering, not backing the ones it is punishing. That asymmetry is the single most useful thing on this page.

FAQs

Which League One team creates the most chances? Reading lead for shots at 17.33 a game and shots inside the box at 12.5. Huddersfield Town lead for big chances created at 5.14 a game.

Which League One team has the best defence? Reading concede the fewest expected goals at 0.88 a game and the fewest shots at 9.67, after 7 games.

Who is League One top scorer this season? Jack Marriott of Reading with 8 goals. Lewis Bate of Stockport County leads for assists with 4.

Which League One teams are over-performing? Bradford City have 5.7 points more than their chances deserve; Wigan Athletic have 5.4 fewer. Our own testing says the tradeable side of that gap is fading the over-performers rather than backing the under-performers.