No, Oldham have taken 24 points over their last 20 League Two games, 4.53 fewer than the 28.53 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Oldham create 1.33 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 League Two games, 26.53 in all, and have scored 29 goals from those chances, 2.47 more than that xG would expect.
Oldham allow 1.27 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 League Two games, 25.46 in all, and have conceded 26 goals from those chances, 0.54 more than that xGA would expect.
Mike Fondop has the most expected goals (xG) for Oldham over their last 20 League Two games, 6.00 xG in 19 appearances, and has scored 5 goals; Calum Kavanagh is next with 4.24 xG.
Oldham have taken 4.5 points fewer than their chances warranted over 20 games: +2.5 goals against their xG, and -0.5 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 26.53 | 29 | +2.47 | 25.46 | 26 | -0.54 | 28.53 | 24 | -4.53 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 13.60 | 12 | -1.60 | 11.88 | 13 | -1.12 | 14.64 | 11 | -3.64 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.99 | 2 | -4.99 | 7.10 | 10 | -2.90 | 6.69 | 1 | -5.69 |
| Home | 10 | 12.71 | 16 | +3.29 | 11.99 | 9 | +2.99 | 14.08 | 17 | +2.92 |
| Away | 10 | 13.82 | 13 | -0.82 | 13.47 | 17 | -3.53 | 14.45 | 7 | -7.45 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | League Two | Accrington (H) | 0-0 | 0.27 | 0.80 | 0.77 | 1 | L |
| 26 Sep | League Two | Salford (H) | 1-4 | 1.26 | 1.45 | 1.24 | 0 | L |
| 19 Sep | League Two | Rochdale (A) | 2-0 | 2.03 | 0.45 | 2.43 | 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | League Two | Chesterfield (H) | 1-2 | 0.87 | 2.50 | 0.49 | 0 | L |
| 5 Sep | League Two | Tranmere (A) | 2-0 | 2.56 | 1.90 | 1.76 | 0 | W |
| 1 Sep | League Two | Fleetwood (A) | 1-1 | 0.72 | 1.04 | 1.07 | 1 | L |
| 29 Aug | League Two | Swindon (H) | 3-0 | 3.05 | 0.21 | 2.82 | 3 | W |
| 22 Aug | League Two | Colchester (A) | 2-1 | 0.42 | 2.48 | 0.26 | 0 | L |
| 15 Aug | League Two | Port Vale (H) | 2-0 | 1.32 | 0.64 | 1.88 | 3 | W |
| 2 May | League Two | Accrington (H) | 3-0 | 1.10 | 0.41 | 1.92 | 3 | W |
| 25 Apr | League Two | Newport (A) | 3-2 | 0.65 | 2.45 | 0.39 | 0 | L |
| 18 Apr | League Two | Salford (H) | 1-2 | 0.69 | 2.39 | 0.42 | 0 | L |
| 14 Apr | League Two | Barrow (A) | 3-2 | 1.04 | 1.52 | 1.03 | 0 | L |
| 11 Apr | League Two | Shrewsbury (A) | 1-0 | 1.63 | 0.29 | 2.37 | 0 | W |
| 6 Apr | League Two | MK Dons (H) | 1-1 | 1.06 | 1.62 | 1.00 | 1 | L |
| 3 Apr | League Two | Colchester (A) | 1-3 | 1.40 | 1.27 | 1.46 | 3 | W |
| 28 Mar | League Two | Crewe (A) | 2-1 | 1.82 | 1.46 | 1.62 | 0 | W |
| 24 Mar | League Two | Notts County (H) | 3-0 | 1.79 | 0.50 | 2.28 | 3 | W |
| 21 Mar | League Two | Harrogate Town (H) | 1-0 | 1.30 | 1.47 | 1.26 | 3 | L |
| 17 Mar | League Two | Chesterfield (A) | 0-3 | 1.55 | 0.61 | 2.06 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kane Drummond | attacker | 17 | 1320 | 3.73 | 6 | +2.27 | 0.25 |
| Kane Taylor | midfielder | 8 | 331 | 0.18 | 2 | +1.82 | 0.05 |
| Dynel Simeu | defender | 5 | 366 | 0.31 | 2 | +1.69 | 0.08 |
| Jake Leake | defender | 7 | 156 | 0.50 | 2 | +1.50 | 0.29 |
| Elliott Nevitt | attacker | 7 | 230 | 0.15 | 1 | +0.85 | 0.06 |
| Keenan Appiah-Forson | midfielder | 9 | 810 | 0.50 | 1 | +0.50 | 0.06 |
| Josh Hawkes | midfielder | 12 | 534 | 0.66 | 1 | +0.34 | 0.11 |
| Will Sutton | defender | 12 | 922 | 0.86 | 1 | +0.14 | 0.08 |
| Tom Pett | midfielder | 17 | 1148 | 0.91 | 1 | +0.09 | 0.07 |
| Donervon Daniels | defender | 15 | 1271 | 1.07 | 1 | -0.07 | 0.08 |
| Calum Kavanagh | attacker | 11 | 741 | 4.24 | 4 | -0.24 | 0.51 |
| Kai Payne | midfielder | 10 | 461 | 1.34 | 1 | -0.34 | 0.26 |
| Ryan Delaney | defender | 7 | 559 | 0.53 | 0 | -0.53 | 0.09 |
| Gus Scott-Morriss | defender | 9 | 765 | 0.78 | 0 | -0.78 | 0.09 |
| Favour Fawunmi | attacker | 8 | 497 | 1.85 | 1 | -0.85 | 0.33 |
| Mike Fondop | attacker | 19 | 1361 | 6.00 | 5 | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 8 | 15.1 | 20 | 11.9 | 11 | 12.9 | 18 | +5.1 |
| 2 | Rochdale | 10 | 9.1 | 11 | 15.7 | 12 | 9.4 | 14 | +4.6 |
| 3 | Cheltenham Town | 10 | 11.5 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 10.5 | 15 | +4.5 |
| 4 | Crewe Alexandra | 10 | 13.2 | 12 | 12.8 | 7 | 13.8 | 18 | +4.2 |
| 5 | Salford City | 10 | 12.9 | 15 | 11.1 | 10 | 14.9 | 19 | +4.1 |
| 6 | Gillingham | 10 | 12.3 | 15 | 14.4 | 10 | 12.8 | 16 | +3.2 |
| 7 | Swindon Town | 10 | 9.9 | 9 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 11 | +2 |
| 8 | Walsall | 9 | 15.2 | 12 | 13.6 | 6 | 13.5 | 15 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 12 | 10 | 16.8 | 11 | 11.1 | 11 | -0.1 |
| 10 | Tranmere Rovers | 10 | 13.2 | 13 | 16 | 13 | 12.2 | 12 | -0.2 |
| 11 | Newport County | 10 | 12.3 | 13 | 12.9 | 12 | 14.1 | 13 | -1.1 |
| 12 | York City | 9 | 17.3 | 17 | 11.7 | 11 | 16.2 | 15 | -1.2 |
| 13 | Colchester United | 9 | 12.8 | 10 | 15.2 | 13 | 11.2 | 10 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 18.4 | 15 | 12.9 | 17 | 16.4 | 15 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Exeter City | 10 | 11.7 | 6 | 12.2 | 6 | 13.4 | 12 | -1.4 |
| 16 | Northampton Town | 8 | 6.1 | 4 | 8.7 | 7 | 9.2 | 7 | -2.2 |
| 17 | Shrewsbury Town | 10 | 11.7 | 9 | 11.2 | 15 | 14.1 | 11 | -3.1 |
| 18 | Accrington Stanley | 10 | 15.4 | 13 | 14.9 | 14 | 14.4 | 11 | -3.4 |
| 19 | Grimsby Town | 10 | 18.2 | 13 | 13.1 | 11 | 17.2 | 13 | -4.2 |
| 20 | Port Vale | 8 | 10.7 | 4 | 7.7 | 9 | 12.4 | 8 | -4.4 |
| 21 | Crawley Town | 8 | 12.6 | 8 | 16.6 | 15 | 9.5 | 5 | -4.5 |
| 22 | Chesterfield | 10 | 22 | 17 | 12.2 | 14 | 19.6 | 15 | -4.6 |
| 23 | Rotherham United | 10 | 14.6 | 12 | 12.8 | 16 | 14.6 | 10 | -4.6 |
| 24 | Oldham Athletic | 9 | 12.5 | 9 | 11.5 | 13 | 12.7 | 8 | -4.7 |