No, Bristol Rovers have taken 15 points over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, within 1.37 of the 16.37 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Bristol Rovers create 1.84 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 18.38 in all, and have scored 15 goals from those chances, 3.38 fewer than that xG would expect.
Bristol Rovers allow 1.29 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 12.87 in all, and have conceded 17 goals from those chances, 4.13 more than that xGA would expect.
Fabrizio Cavegn has the most expected goals (xG) for Bristol Rovers over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 3.70 xG in 9 appearances, and has scored 3 goals; Tommy Leigh is next with 2.20 xG.
Bristol Rovers's results and their chances agree, within 1.4 points of xPts over 10 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 10 | 18.38 | 15 | -3.38 | 12.87 | 17 | -4.13 | 16.37 | 15 | -1.37 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.49 | 3 | -3.49 | 7.18 | 11 | -3.82 | 6.21 | 3 | -3.21 |
| Home | 5 | 11.49 | 10 | -1.49 | 5.31 | 6 | -0.69 | 10.36 | 12 | +1.64 |
| Away | 5 | 6.89 | 5 | -1.89 | 7.56 | 11 | -3.44 | 6.01 | 3 | -3.01 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | League Two | Barnet (H) | 1-3 | 2.59 | 2.05 | 1.69 | 0 | W |
| 3 Oct | League Two | Crewe (A) | 3-1 | 0.99 | 1.51 | 1.00 | 0 | L |
| 26 Sep | League Two | Exeter City (H) | 1-0 | 1.91 | 0.42 | 2.40 | 3 | W |
| 19 Sep | League Two | Gillingham (A) | 3-0 | 0.88 | 2.34 | 0.55 | 0 | L |
| 12 Sep | League Two | Grimsby (A) | 2-0 | 0.12 | 0.86 | 0.57 | 0 | L |
| 5 Sep | League Two | Rotherham (H) | 1-0 | 1.08 | 1.13 | 1.32 | 3 | L |
| 1 Sep | League Two | Colchester (H) | 2-0 | 2.64 | 1.12 | 2.25 | 3 | W |
| 29 Aug | League Two | Crawley (A) | 0-2 | 2.88 | 0.81 | 2.51 | 3 | W |
| 22 Aug | League Two | Newport (H) | 5-3 | 3.27 | 0.59 | 2.70 | 3 | W |
| 15 Aug | League Two | York (A) | 3-2 | 2.02 | 2.04 | 1.38 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas James | defender | 9 | 805 | 0.30 | 2 | +1.70 | 0.03 |
| Bobby Kamwa | attacker | 9 | 521 | 2.09 | 3 | +0.91 | 0.36 |
| Ellis Harrison | attacker | 9 | 437 | 1.72 | 2 | +0.28 | 0.35 |
| Clinton Mola | defender | 10 | 900 | 0.81 | 1 | +0.19 | 0.08 |
| B. Purrington | defender | 9 | 675 | 1.19 | 1 | -0.19 | 0.16 |
| Tommy Leigh | midfielder | 7 | 502 | 2.20 | 2 | -0.20 | 0.39 |
| J. Aitchison | midfielder | 6 | 191 | 0.54 | 0 | -0.54 | 0.25 |
| Kofi Balmer | defender | 10 | 853 | 0.62 | 0 | -0.62 | 0.07 |
| Fabrizio Cavegn | attacker | 9 | 646 | 3.70 | 3 | -0.70 | 0.52 |
| Keenan Gough | midfielder | 4 | 314 | 0.89 | 0 | -0.89 | 0.25 |
| Shaqai Forde | attacker | 10 | 751 | 2.15 | 0 | -2.15 | 0.26 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 8 | 15.1 | 20 | 11.9 | 11 | 12.9 | 18 | +5.1 |
| 2 | Rochdale | 10 | 9.1 | 11 | 15.7 | 12 | 9.4 | 14 | +4.6 |
| 3 | Cheltenham Town | 10 | 11.5 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 10.5 | 15 | +4.5 |
| 4 | Crewe Alexandra | 10 | 13.2 | 12 | 12.8 | 7 | 13.8 | 18 | +4.2 |
| 5 | Salford City | 10 | 12.9 | 15 | 11.1 | 10 | 14.9 | 19 | +4.1 |
| 6 | Gillingham | 10 | 12.3 | 15 | 14.4 | 10 | 12.8 | 16 | +3.2 |
| 7 | Swindon Town | 10 | 9.9 | 9 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 11 | +2 |
| 8 | Walsall | 9 | 15.2 | 12 | 13.6 | 6 | 13.5 | 15 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 12 | 10 | 16.8 | 11 | 11.1 | 11 | -0.1 |
| 10 | Tranmere Rovers | 10 | 13.2 | 13 | 16 | 13 | 12.2 | 12 | -0.2 |
| 11 | Newport County | 10 | 12.3 | 13 | 12.9 | 12 | 14.1 | 13 | -1.1 |
| 12 | York City | 9 | 17.3 | 17 | 11.7 | 11 | 16.2 | 15 | -1.2 |
| 13 | Colchester United | 9 | 12.8 | 10 | 15.2 | 13 | 11.2 | 10 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 18.4 | 15 | 12.9 | 17 | 16.4 | 15 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Exeter City | 10 | 11.7 | 6 | 12.2 | 6 | 13.4 | 12 | -1.4 |
| 16 | Northampton Town | 8 | 6.1 | 4 | 8.7 | 7 | 9.2 | 7 | -2.2 |
| 17 | Shrewsbury Town | 10 | 11.7 | 9 | 11.2 | 15 | 14.1 | 11 | -3.1 |
| 18 | Accrington Stanley | 10 | 15.4 | 13 | 14.9 | 14 | 14.4 | 11 | -3.4 |
| 19 | Grimsby Town | 10 | 18.2 | 13 | 13.1 | 11 | 17.2 | 13 | -4.2 |
| 20 | Port Vale | 8 | 10.7 | 4 | 7.7 | 9 | 12.4 | 8 | -4.4 |
| 21 | Crawley Town | 8 | 12.6 | 8 | 16.6 | 15 | 9.5 | 5 | -4.5 |
| 22 | Chesterfield | 10 | 22 | 17 | 12.2 | 14 | 19.6 | 15 | -4.6 |
| 23 | Rotherham United | 10 | 14.6 | 12 | 12.8 | 16 | 14.6 | 10 | -4.6 |
| 24 | Oldham Athletic | 9 | 12.5 | 9 | 11.5 | 13 | 12.7 | 8 | -4.7 |