No, Lincoln have taken 11 points over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 3.56 fewer than the 14.56 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Lincoln create 1.46 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 14.64 in all, and have scored 7 goals from those chances, 7.64 fewer than that xG would expect.
Lincoln allow 1.50 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 14.95 in all, and have conceded 17 goals from those chances, 2.05 more than that xGA would expect.
Reeco Hackett has the most expected goals (xG) for Lincoln over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 2.28 xG in 8 appearances, and has scored 2 goals; Mikkel Ladefoged is next with 1.95 xG.
Lincoln have taken 3.6 points fewer than their chances warranted over 10 games: -7.6 goals against their xG, and -2.1 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 10 | 14.64 | 7 | -7.64 | 14.95 | 17 | -2.05 | 14.56 | 11 | -3.56 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.34 | 3 | -2.34 | 8.02 | 11 | -2.98 | 6.09 | 6 | -0.09 |
| Home | 5 | 9.46 | 3 | -6.46 | 7.25 | 12 | -4.75 | 9.20 | 2 | -7.20 |
| Away | 5 | 5.18 | 4 | -1.18 | 7.70 | 5 | +2.70 | 5.36 | 9 | +3.64 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct | Championship | West Ham (H) | 0-6 | 0.41 | 4.02 | 0.08 | 0 | L |
| 10 Oct | Championship | Sheff Utd (A) | 3-0 | 1.64 | 1.00 | 1.82 | 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | Championship | Swansea (H) | 1-2 | 1.94 | 0.82 | 2.12 | 0 | W |
| 15 Sep | Championship | Bristol City (A) | 0-1 | 0.60 | 1.49 | 0.71 | 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | Championship | Preston (A) | 0-1 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 1.36 | 3 | D |
| 5 Sep | Championship | S'oton (H) | 1-1 | 2.89 | 0.76 | 2.54 | 1 | W |
| 1 Sep | Championship | Blackburn (H) | 0-0 | 1.78 | 0.26 | 2.46 | 1 | W |
| 29 Aug | Championship | Bolton (A) | 0-1 | 1.32 | 1.92 | 1.01 | 3 | L |
| 22 Aug | Championship | Portsmouth (H) | 1-3 | 2.44 | 1.39 | 2.00 | 0 | W |
| 15 Aug | Championship | M'Boro (A) | 2-1 | 0.87 | 2.60 | 0.46 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddie Draper | attacker | 10 | 649 | 1.22 | 2 | +0.78 | 0.17 |
| Adam Reach | midfielder | 9 | 751 | 0.66 | 1 | +0.34 | 0.08 |
| Reeco Hackett | attacker | 8 | 487 | 2.28 | 2 | -0.28 | 0.42 |
| Chiedozie Ogbene | attacker | 6 | 199 | 0.67 | 0 | -0.67 | 0.30 |
| Ben House | attacker | 9 | 705 | 1.82 | 1 | -0.82 | 0.23 |
| Mikkel Ladefoged | attacker | 4 | 93 | 1.95 | 1 | -0.95 | 1.89 |
| Dom Jefferies | midfielder | 7 | 493 | 0.97 | 0 | -0.97 | 0.18 |
| D. Elerewe | defender | 10 | 900 | 0.98 | 0 | -0.98 | 0.10 |
| Robert Street | attacker | 10 | 446 | 1.44 | 0 | -1.44 | 0.29 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea City | 10 | 16 | 16 | 12.3 | 7 | 15.7 | 23 | +7.3 |
| 2 | Stoke City | 10 | 9.8 | 17 | 16.8 | 16 | 10.2 | 16 | +5.8 |
| 3 | Blackburn Rovers | 10 | 9.7 | 15 | 15.8 | 13 | 9.7 | 15 | +5.3 |
| 4 | Southampton | 10 | 17.8 | 21 | 15 | 10 | 15.6 | 20 | +4.4 |
| 5 | West Bromwich Albion | 10 | 12.3 | 12 | 14.5 | 10 | 12.7 | 17 | +4.3 |
| 6 | Charlton Athletic | 10 | 11.1 | 10 | 16.1 | 13 | 11 | 14 | +3 |
| 7 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 18.5 | 20 | 11.1 | 14 | 18.3 | 21 | +2.7 |
| 8 | Sheffield United | 10 | 10.9 | 14 | 17.3 | 14 | 9.6 | 12 | +2.4 |
| 9 | Bolton Wanderers | 10 | 14.5 | 15 | 18.3 | 18 | 11.5 | 13 | +1.5 |
| 10 | Queens Park Rangers | 10 | 17.8 | 15 | 12.9 | 9 | 16.6 | 17 | +0.4 |
| 11 | Birmingham City | 10 | 18.1 | 17 | 12.6 | 11 | 17.2 | 17 | -0.2 |
| 12 | West Ham United | 10 | 24.6 | 29 | 12.9 | 12 | 19.3 | 19 | -0.3 |
| 13 | Bristol City | 10 | 13.9 | 12 | 14.1 | 14 | 14.7 | 14 | -0.7 |
| 14 | Watford | 10 | 11.2 | 8 | 19.3 | 19 | 9 | 8 | -1 |
| 15 | Millwall | 10 | 19.3 | 16 | 14.4 | 16 | 16.2 | 14 | -2.2 |
| 16 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 9 | 15.7 | 16 | 9.7 | 14 | 16.3 | 14 | -2.3 |
| 17 | Portsmouth | 9 | 14.2 | 12 | 12.3 | 13 | 13.7 | 11 | -2.7 |
| 18 | Wrexham | 10 | 12.2 | 11 | 11.9 | 15 | 14.2 | 11 | -3.2 |
| 19 | Norwich City | 10 | 15 | 17 | 17.7 | 20 | 12.5 | 9 | -3.5 |
| 20 | Lincoln City | 10 | 14.6 | 7 | 14.9 | 17 | 14.6 | 11 | -3.6 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 13.4 | 15 | 16.3 | 19 | 11.8 | 8 | -3.8 |
| 22 | Derby County | 10 | 11.1 | 9 | 19.1 | 19 | 10.1 | 6 | -4.1 |
| 23 | Cardiff City | 10 | 21.3 | 16 | 14.2 | 15 | 17.6 | 10 | -7.6 |
| 24 | Preston North End | 10 | 12 | 8 | 15.3 | 20 | 12.1 | 4 | -8.1 |