No, Cardiff have taken 10 points over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 7.58 fewer than the 17.58 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Cardiff create 2.13 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 21.28 in all, and have scored 16 goals from those chances, 5.28 fewer than that xG would expect.
Cardiff allow 1.42 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 14.23 in all, and have conceded 15 goals from those chances, 0.77 more than that xGA would expect.
Yousef Salech has the most expected goals (xG) for Cardiff over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 4.51 xG in 8 appearances, and has scored 2 goals; Jack Moylan is next with 4.40 xG.
Cardiff have taken 7.6 points fewer than their chances warranted over 10 games: -5.3 goals against their xG, and -0.8 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 10 | 21.28 | 16 | -5.28 | 14.23 | 15 | -0.77 | 17.58 | 10 | -7.58 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 12.63 | 10 | -2.63 | 5.07 | 6 | -0.93 | 10.98 | 7 | -3.98 |
| Home | 5 | 12.43 | 12 | -0.43 | 6.13 | 6 | +0.13 | 10.21 | 9 | -1.21 |
| Away | 5 | 8.85 | 4 | -4.85 | 8.10 | 9 | -0.90 | 7.37 | 1 | -6.37 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct | Championship | Watford (H) | 5-1 | 3.57 | 1.47 | 2.38 | 3 | W |
| 10 Oct | Championship | Blackburn (A) | 2-1 | 1.09 | 1.48 | 1.10 | 0 | L |
| 19 Sep | Championship | Charlton (H) | 3-1 | 2.81 | 0.71 | 2.54 | 3 | W |
| 12 Sep | Championship | Bolton (A) | 1-0 | 2.43 | 0.46 | 2.57 | 0 | W |
| 8 Sep | Championship | Stoke (H) | 1-1 | 2.73 | 0.95 | 2.39 | 1 | W |
| 5 Sep | Championship | Portsmouth (A) | 2-0 | 1.81 | 1.78 | 1.41 | 0 | W |
| 2 Sep | Championship | QPR (A) | 2-1 | 0.64 | 2.49 | 0.37 | 0 | L |
| 29 Aug | Championship | Sheff Utd (H) | 2-2 | 2.31 | 1.34 | 1.96 | 1 | W |
| 22 Aug | Championship | Derby (A) | 2-2 | 2.88 | 1.89 | 1.92 | 1 | W |
| 17 Aug | Championship | Wrexham (H) | 1-1 | 1.01 | 1.66 | 0.94 | 1 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Robinson | attacker | 6 | 110 | 0.61 | 2 | +1.39 | 0.50 |
| Cian Ashford | midfielder | 10 | 471 | 1.13 | 2 | +0.87 | 0.22 |
| Jack Moylan | midfielder | 10 | 837 | 4.40 | 5 | +0.60 | 0.47 |
| Perry Ng | defender | 10 | 900 | 0.42 | 1 | +0.58 | 0.04 |
| Rubin Colwill | midfielder | 5 | 293 | 0.62 | 1 | +0.38 | 0.19 |
| Alex Robertson | midfielder | 10 | 889 | 0.53 | 0 | -0.53 | 0.05 |
| Joel Colwill | midfielder | 10 | 488 | 1.70 | 1 | -0.70 | 0.31 |
| Krystian Bielik | defender | 6 | 494 | 0.70 | 0 | -0.70 | 0.13 |
| Chris Willock | attacker | 10 | 537 | 1.69 | 0 | -1.69 | 0.28 |
| Ollie Tanner | attacker | 10 | 799 | 2.92 | 1 | -1.92 | 0.33 |
| Yousef Salech | attacker | 8 | 700 | 4.51 | 2 | -2.51 | 0.58 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea City | 10 | 16 | 16 | 12.3 | 7 | 15.7 | 23 | +7.3 |
| 2 | Stoke City | 10 | 9.8 | 17 | 16.8 | 16 | 10.2 | 16 | +5.8 |
| 3 | Blackburn Rovers | 10 | 9.7 | 15 | 15.8 | 13 | 9.7 | 15 | +5.3 |
| 4 | Southampton | 10 | 17.8 | 21 | 15 | 10 | 15.6 | 20 | +4.4 |
| 5 | West Bromwich Albion | 10 | 12.3 | 12 | 14.5 | 10 | 12.7 | 17 | +4.3 |
| 6 | Charlton Athletic | 10 | 11.1 | 10 | 16.1 | 13 | 11 | 14 | +3 |
| 7 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 18.5 | 20 | 11.1 | 14 | 18.3 | 21 | +2.7 |
| 8 | Sheffield United | 10 | 10.9 | 14 | 17.3 | 14 | 9.6 | 12 | +2.4 |
| 9 | Bolton Wanderers | 10 | 14.5 | 15 | 18.3 | 18 | 11.5 | 13 | +1.5 |
| 10 | Queens Park Rangers | 10 | 17.8 | 15 | 12.9 | 9 | 16.6 | 17 | +0.4 |
| 11 | Birmingham City | 10 | 18.1 | 17 | 12.6 | 11 | 17.2 | 17 | -0.2 |
| 12 | West Ham United | 10 | 24.6 | 29 | 12.9 | 12 | 19.3 | 19 | -0.3 |
| 13 | Bristol City | 10 | 13.9 | 12 | 14.1 | 14 | 14.7 | 14 | -0.7 |
| 14 | Watford | 10 | 11.2 | 8 | 19.3 | 19 | 9 | 8 | -1 |
| 15 | Millwall | 10 | 19.3 | 16 | 14.4 | 16 | 16.2 | 14 | -2.2 |
| 16 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 9 | 15.7 | 16 | 9.7 | 14 | 16.3 | 14 | -2.3 |
| 17 | Portsmouth | 9 | 14.2 | 12 | 12.3 | 13 | 13.7 | 11 | -2.7 |
| 18 | Wrexham | 10 | 12.2 | 11 | 11.9 | 15 | 14.2 | 11 | -3.2 |
| 19 | Norwich City | 10 | 15 | 17 | 17.7 | 20 | 12.5 | 9 | -3.5 |
| 20 | Lincoln City | 10 | 14.6 | 7 | 14.9 | 17 | 14.6 | 11 | -3.6 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 13.4 | 15 | 16.3 | 19 | 11.8 | 8 | -3.8 |
| 22 | Derby County | 10 | 11.1 | 9 | 19.1 | 19 | 10.1 | 6 | -4.1 |
| 23 | Cardiff City | 10 | 21.3 | 16 | 14.2 | 15 | 17.6 | 10 | -7.6 |
| 24 | Preston North End | 10 | 12 | 8 | 15.3 | 20 | 12.1 | 4 | -8.1 |