No, Derby have taken 6 points over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 4.13 fewer than the 10.13 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Derby create 1.11 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 11.08 in all, and have scored 9 goals from those chances, 2.08 fewer than that xG would expect.
Derby allow 1.91 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 19.13 in all, and have conceded 19 goals from those chances, 0.13 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Bobby Clark has the most expected goals (xG) for Derby over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 1.93 xG in 10 appearances, and has scored 2 goals; Sammie Szmodics is next with 1.84 xG.
Derby have taken 4.1 points fewer than their chances warranted over 10 games: -2.1 goals against their xG, and +0.1 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 10 | 11.08 | 9 | -2.08 | 19.13 | 19 | +0.13 | 10.13 | 6 | -4.13 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.88 | 4 | -1.88 | 7.44 | 9 | -1.56 | 6.08 | 2 | -4.08 |
| Home | 5 | 6.14 | 4 | -2.14 | 10.55 | 9 | +1.55 | 4.58 | 2 | -2.58 |
| Away | 5 | 4.94 | 5 | +0.06 | 8.58 | 10 | -1.42 | 5.55 | 4 | -1.55 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct | Championship | QPR (A) | 4-1 | 1.07 | 1.64 | 0.99 | 0 | L |
| 10 Oct | Championship | Wrexham (H) | 1-1 | 0.80 | 1.59 | 0.81 | 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | Championship | Burnley (A) | 1-1 | 1.55 | 0.81 | 1.90 | 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | Championship | Birmingham (H) | 1-2 | 1.09 | 2.63 | 0.57 | 0 | L |
| 9 Sep | Championship | WBA (H) | 0-1 | 1.37 | 0.77 | 1.81 | 0 | W |
| 5 Sep | Championship | West Ham (A) | 3-0 | 0.14 | 3.85 | 0.04 | 0 | L |
| 1 Sep | Championship | Portsmouth (A) | 0-2 | 0.90 | 1.04 | 1.23 | 3 | L |
| 29 Aug | Championship | Swansea (H) | 0-3 | 0.99 | 2.68 | 0.49 | 0 | L |
| 22 Aug | Championship | Cardiff (H) | 2-2 | 1.89 | 2.88 | 0.90 | 1 | L |
| 15 Aug | Championship | Charlton (A) | 2-1 | 1.28 | 1.24 | 1.39 | 0 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammie Szmodics | midfielder | 9 | 686 | 1.84 | 3 | +1.16 | 0.24 |
| Mohammed Fuseini | attacker | 6 | 341 | 0.25 | 1 | +0.75 | 0.07 |
| Lars-Jørgen Salvesen | attacker | 9 | 224 | 1.56 | 2 | +0.44 | 0.63 |
| Bobby Clark | midfielder | 10 | 823 | 1.93 | 2 | +0.07 | 0.21 |
| Carlton Morris | attacker | 6 | 505 | 1.41 | 1 | -0.41 | 0.25 |
| Henrik Meister | attacker | 5 | 205 | 0.52 | 0 | -0.52 | 0.23 |
| Dion Sanderson | defender | 9 | 766 | 0.56 | 0 | -0.56 | 0.07 |
| Oscar Fraulo | midfielder | 7 | 365 | 0.71 | 0 | -0.71 | 0.17 |
| Ryan Hedges | attacker | 9 | 526 | 0.76 | 0 | -0.76 | 0.13 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea City | 10 | 16 | 16 | 12.3 | 7 | 15.7 | 23 | +7.3 |
| 2 | Stoke City | 10 | 9.8 | 17 | 16.8 | 16 | 10.2 | 16 | +5.8 |
| 3 | Blackburn Rovers | 10 | 9.7 | 15 | 15.8 | 13 | 9.7 | 15 | +5.3 |
| 4 | Southampton | 10 | 17.8 | 21 | 15 | 10 | 15.6 | 20 | +4.4 |
| 5 | West Bromwich Albion | 10 | 12.3 | 12 | 14.5 | 10 | 12.7 | 17 | +4.3 |
| 6 | Charlton Athletic | 10 | 11.1 | 10 | 16.1 | 13 | 11 | 14 | +3 |
| 7 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 18.5 | 20 | 11.1 | 14 | 18.3 | 21 | +2.7 |
| 8 | Sheffield United | 10 | 10.9 | 14 | 17.3 | 14 | 9.6 | 12 | +2.4 |
| 9 | Bolton Wanderers | 10 | 14.5 | 15 | 18.3 | 18 | 11.5 | 13 | +1.5 |
| 10 | Queens Park Rangers | 10 | 17.8 | 15 | 12.9 | 9 | 16.6 | 17 | +0.4 |
| 11 | Birmingham City | 10 | 18.1 | 17 | 12.6 | 11 | 17.2 | 17 | -0.2 |
| 12 | West Ham United | 10 | 24.6 | 29 | 12.9 | 12 | 19.3 | 19 | -0.3 |
| 13 | Bristol City | 10 | 13.9 | 12 | 14.1 | 14 | 14.7 | 14 | -0.7 |
| 14 | Watford | 10 | 11.2 | 8 | 19.3 | 19 | 9 | 8 | -1 |
| 15 | Millwall | 10 | 19.3 | 16 | 14.4 | 16 | 16.2 | 14 | -2.2 |
| 16 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 9 | 15.7 | 16 | 9.7 | 14 | 16.3 | 14 | -2.3 |
| 17 | Portsmouth | 9 | 14.2 | 12 | 12.3 | 13 | 13.7 | 11 | -2.7 |
| 18 | Wrexham | 10 | 12.2 | 11 | 11.9 | 15 | 14.2 | 11 | -3.2 |
| 19 | Norwich City | 10 | 15 | 17 | 17.7 | 20 | 12.5 | 9 | -3.5 |
| 20 | Lincoln City | 10 | 14.6 | 7 | 14.9 | 17 | 14.6 | 11 | -3.6 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 13.4 | 15 | 16.3 | 19 | 11.8 | 8 | -3.8 |
| 22 | Derby County | 10 | 11.1 | 9 | 19.1 | 19 | 10.1 | 6 | -4.1 |
| 23 | Cardiff City | 10 | 21.3 | 16 | 14.2 | 15 | 17.6 | 10 | -7.6 |
| 24 | Preston North End | 10 | 12 | 8 | 15.3 | 20 | 12.1 | 4 | -8.1 |