Yes, M'Boro have taken 21 points over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 2.70 more than the 18.30 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
M'Boro create 1.85 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 18.53 in all, and have scored 20 goals from those chances, 1.47 more than that xG would expect.
M'Boro allow 1.11 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 11.13 in all, and have conceded 14 goals from those chances, 2.87 more than that xGA would expect.
Will Lankshear has the most expected goals (xG) for M'Boro over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 6.69 xG in 10 appearances, and has scored 8 goals; Sebastian Berhalter is next with 1.38 xG.
M'Boro have taken 2.7 points more than their chances warranted over 10 games: +1.5 goals against their xG, and -2.9 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 10 | 18.53 | 20 | +1.47 | 11.13 | 14 | -2.87 | 18.30 | 21 | +2.70 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 9.50 | 12 | +2.50 | 5.65 | 9 | -3.35 | 9.29 | 11 | +1.71 |
| Home | 5 | 9.87 | 12 | +2.13 | 5.76 | 7 | -1.24 | 9.37 | 13 | +3.63 |
| Away | 5 | 8.66 | 8 | -0.66 | 5.37 | 7 | -1.63 | 8.93 | 8 | -0.93 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct | Championship | Stoke (A) | 2-3 | 2.22 | 0.74 | 2.31 | 3 | W |
| 10 Oct | Championship | Wolves (H) | 1-0 | 0.96 | 0.74 | 1.52 | 3 | W |
| 19 Sep | Championship | Birmingham (A) | 2-2 | 2.09 | 1.33 | 1.86 | 1 | W |
| 15 Sep | Championship | Millwall (H) | 2-2 | 1.70 | 1.34 | 1.62 | 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | Championship | Norwich (H) | 4-3 | 2.53 | 1.50 | 1.98 | 3 | W |
| 5 Sep | Championship | QPR (A) | 0-1 | 2.07 | 1.47 | 1.75 | 3 | W |
| 2 Sep | Championship | Burnley (A) | 1-1 | 0.79 | 0.91 | 1.24 | 1 | L |
| 29 Aug | Championship | WBA (H) | 3-1 | 2.08 | 1.31 | 1.87 | 3 | W |
| 22 Aug | Championship | Blackburn (A) | 2-1 | 1.49 | 0.92 | 1.77 | 0 | W |
| 15 Aug | Championship | Lincoln (H) | 2-1 | 2.60 | 0.87 | 2.38 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lankshear | attacker | 10 | 842 | 6.69 | 8 | +1.31 | 0.72 |
| Amario Cozier-Duberry | attacker | 5 | 397 | 1.10 | 2 | +0.90 | 0.25 |
| Max Arfsten | attacker | 9 | 387 | 0.31 | 1 | +0.69 | 0.07 |
| Sebastian Berhalter | midfielder | 10 | 682 | 1.38 | 2 | +0.62 | 0.18 |
| Alfie Jones | defender | 5 | 161 | 0.41 | 1 | +0.59 | 0.23 |
| Jeremy Sarmiento | attacker | 7 | 253 | 0.41 | 1 | +0.59 | 0.15 |
| Neto Borges | defender | 10 | 666 | 0.50 | 1 | +0.50 | 0.07 |
| Callum Brittain | defender | 10 | 900 | 0.70 | 1 | +0.30 | 0.07 |
| Ashley Phillips | defender | 7 | 488 | 0.73 | 1 | +0.27 | 0.14 |
| Aidan Morris | midfielder | 9 | 810 | 1.02 | 1 | -0.02 | 0.11 |
| Adilson Malanda | defender | 9 | 810 | 1.20 | 1 | -0.20 | 0.13 |
| Tommy Conway | attacker | 8 | 300 | 0.58 | 0 | -0.58 | 0.17 |
| Myles Peart-Harris | midfielder | 8 | 290 | 0.67 | 0 | -0.67 | 0.21 |
| Riley McGree | midfielder | 10 | 552 | 1.23 | 0 | -1.23 | 0.20 |
| Kyle Joseph | attacker | 10 | 364 | 1.25 | 0 | -1.25 | 0.31 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea City | 10 | 16 | 16 | 12.3 | 7 | 15.7 | 23 | +7.3 |
| 2 | Stoke City | 10 | 9.8 | 17 | 16.8 | 16 | 10.2 | 16 | +5.8 |
| 3 | Blackburn Rovers | 10 | 9.7 | 15 | 15.8 | 13 | 9.7 | 15 | +5.3 |
| 4 | Southampton | 10 | 17.8 | 21 | 15 | 10 | 15.6 | 20 | +4.4 |
| 5 | West Bromwich Albion | 10 | 12.3 | 12 | 14.5 | 10 | 12.7 | 17 | +4.3 |
| 6 | Charlton Athletic | 10 | 11.1 | 10 | 16.1 | 13 | 11 | 14 | +3 |
| 7 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 18.5 | 20 | 11.1 | 14 | 18.3 | 21 | +2.7 |
| 8 | Sheffield United | 10 | 10.9 | 14 | 17.3 | 14 | 9.6 | 12 | +2.4 |
| 9 | Bolton Wanderers | 10 | 14.5 | 15 | 18.3 | 18 | 11.5 | 13 | +1.5 |
| 10 | Queens Park Rangers | 10 | 17.8 | 15 | 12.9 | 9 | 16.6 | 17 | +0.4 |
| 11 | Birmingham City | 10 | 18.1 | 17 | 12.6 | 11 | 17.2 | 17 | -0.2 |
| 12 | West Ham United | 10 | 24.6 | 29 | 12.9 | 12 | 19.3 | 19 | -0.3 |
| 13 | Bristol City | 10 | 13.9 | 12 | 14.1 | 14 | 14.7 | 14 | -0.7 |
| 14 | Watford | 10 | 11.2 | 8 | 19.3 | 19 | 9 | 8 | -1 |
| 15 | Millwall | 10 | 19.3 | 16 | 14.4 | 16 | 16.2 | 14 | -2.2 |
| 16 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 9 | 15.7 | 16 | 9.7 | 14 | 16.3 | 14 | -2.3 |
| 17 | Portsmouth | 9 | 14.2 | 12 | 12.3 | 13 | 13.7 | 11 | -2.7 |
| 18 | Wrexham | 10 | 12.2 | 11 | 11.9 | 15 | 14.2 | 11 | -3.2 |
| 19 | Norwich City | 10 | 15 | 17 | 17.7 | 20 | 12.5 | 9 | -3.5 |
| 20 | Lincoln City | 10 | 14.6 | 7 | 14.9 | 17 | 14.6 | 11 | -3.6 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 13.4 | 15 | 16.3 | 19 | 11.8 | 8 | -3.8 |
| 22 | Derby County | 10 | 11.1 | 9 | 19.1 | 19 | 10.1 | 6 | -4.1 |
| 23 | Cardiff City | 10 | 21.3 | 16 | 14.2 | 15 | 17.6 | 10 | -7.6 |
| 24 | Preston North End | 10 | 12 | 8 | 15.3 | 20 | 12.1 | 4 | -8.1 |