No, Birmingham have taken 17 points over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, within 0.24 of the 17.24 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Birmingham create 1.81 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 18.05 in all, and have scored 17 goals from those chances, 1.05 fewer than that xG would expect.
Birmingham allow 1.26 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 12.62 in all, and have conceded 11 goals from those chances, 1.62 fewer than that xGA would expect.
August Priske has the most expected goals (xG) for Birmingham over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 3.83 xG in 9 appearances, and has scored 4 goals; Jay Stansfield is next with 2.72 xG.
Birmingham's results and their chances agree, within 0.2 points of xPts over 10 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 10 | 18.05 | 17 | -1.05 | 12.62 | 11 | +1.62 | 17.24 | 17 | -0.24 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 10.40 | 10 | -0.40 | 6.02 | 5 | +1.02 | 9.53 | 10 | +0.47 |
| Home | 5 | 8.68 | 11 | +2.32 | 7.30 | 7 | +0.30 | 7.80 | 7 | -0.80 |
| Away | 5 | 9.37 | 6 | -3.37 | 5.32 | 4 | +1.32 | 9.44 | 10 | +0.56 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct | Championship | Preston (H) | 4-0 | 2.37 | 0.76 | 2.36 | 3 | W |
| 10 Oct | Championship | WBA (A) | 0-1 | 2.47 | 0.95 | 2.28 | 3 | W |
| 19 Sep | Championship | M'Boro (H) | 2-2 | 1.33 | 2.09 | 0.93 | 1 | L |
| 12 Sep | Championship | Derby (A) | 1-2 | 2.63 | 1.09 | 2.26 | 3 | W |
| 9 Sep | Championship | Norwich (A) | 2-1 | 1.60 | 1.13 | 1.70 | 0 | W |
| 6 Sep | Championship | Wolves (H) | 2-2 | 1.67 | 1.63 | 1.41 | 1 | W |
| 1 Sep | Championship | S'oton (H) | 1-1 | 1.65 | 1.16 | 1.71 | 1 | W |
| 28 Aug | Championship | Wrexham (A) | 1-2 | 1.78 | 1.84 | 1.36 | 3 | L |
| 22 Aug | Championship | Bristol City (H) | 2-2 | 1.66 | 1.66 | 1.39 | 1 | W |
| 15 Aug | Championship | Sheff Utd (A) | 0-0 | 0.89 | 0.31 | 1.84 | 1 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Millar | attacker | 6 | 438 | 0.94 | 2 | +1.06 | 0.19 |
| Phil Neumann | defender | 10 | 900 | 1.22 | 2 | +0.78 | 0.12 |
| Demarai Gray | attacker | 7 | 165 | 1.30 | 2 | +0.70 | 0.71 |
| August Priske | attacker | 9 | 729 | 3.83 | 4 | +0.17 | 0.47 |
| Carlos Vicente | attacker | 10 | 704 | 2.01 | 2 | -0.01 | 0.26 |
| Seung-ho Paik | midfielder | 8 | 378 | 1.17 | 1 | -0.17 | 0.28 |
| Patrick Roberts | attacker | 7 | 334 | 0.60 | 0 | -0.60 | 0.16 |
| Luis Vázquez | attacker | 8 | 131 | 0.75 | 0 | -0.75 | 0.51 |
| Christoph Klarer | defender | 10 | 900 | 0.99 | 0 | -0.99 | 0.10 |
| Tomoki Iwata | midfielder | 10 | 877 | 1.15 | 0 | -1.15 | 0.12 |
| Jay Stansfield | attacker | 10 | 832 | 2.72 | 1 | -1.72 | 0.29 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea City | 10 | 16 | 16 | 12.3 | 7 | 15.7 | 23 | +7.3 |
| 2 | Stoke City | 10 | 9.8 | 17 | 16.8 | 16 | 10.2 | 16 | +5.8 |
| 3 | Blackburn Rovers | 10 | 9.7 | 15 | 15.8 | 13 | 9.7 | 15 | +5.3 |
| 4 | Southampton | 10 | 17.8 | 21 | 15 | 10 | 15.6 | 20 | +4.4 |
| 5 | West Bromwich Albion | 10 | 12.3 | 12 | 14.5 | 10 | 12.7 | 17 | +4.3 |
| 6 | Charlton Athletic | 10 | 11.1 | 10 | 16.1 | 13 | 11 | 14 | +3 |
| 7 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 18.5 | 20 | 11.1 | 14 | 18.3 | 21 | +2.7 |
| 8 | Sheffield United | 10 | 10.9 | 14 | 17.3 | 14 | 9.6 | 12 | +2.4 |
| 9 | Bolton Wanderers | 10 | 14.5 | 15 | 18.3 | 18 | 11.5 | 13 | +1.5 |
| 10 | Queens Park Rangers | 10 | 17.8 | 15 | 12.9 | 9 | 16.6 | 17 | +0.4 |
| 11 | Birmingham City | 10 | 18.1 | 17 | 12.6 | 11 | 17.2 | 17 | -0.2 |
| 12 | West Ham United | 10 | 24.6 | 29 | 12.9 | 12 | 19.3 | 19 | -0.3 |
| 13 | Bristol City | 10 | 13.9 | 12 | 14.1 | 14 | 14.7 | 14 | -0.7 |
| 14 | Watford | 10 | 11.2 | 8 | 19.3 | 19 | 9 | 8 | -1 |
| 15 | Millwall | 10 | 19.3 | 16 | 14.4 | 16 | 16.2 | 14 | -2.2 |
| 16 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 9 | 15.7 | 16 | 9.7 | 14 | 16.3 | 14 | -2.3 |
| 17 | Portsmouth | 9 | 14.2 | 12 | 12.3 | 13 | 13.7 | 11 | -2.7 |
| 18 | Wrexham | 10 | 12.2 | 11 | 11.9 | 15 | 14.2 | 11 | -3.2 |
| 19 | Norwich City | 10 | 15 | 17 | 17.7 | 20 | 12.5 | 9 | -3.5 |
| 20 | Lincoln City | 10 | 14.6 | 7 | 14.9 | 17 | 14.6 | 11 | -3.6 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 13.4 | 15 | 16.3 | 19 | 11.8 | 8 | -3.8 |
| 22 | Derby County | 10 | 11.1 | 9 | 19.1 | 19 | 10.1 | 6 | -4.1 |
| 23 | Cardiff City | 10 | 21.3 | 16 | 14.2 | 15 | 17.6 | 10 | -7.6 |
| 24 | Preston North End | 10 | 12 | 8 | 15.3 | 20 | 12.1 | 4 | -8.1 |