When does NFL Week 7 start?

Week 7 runs from Thursday 22 October, the Patriots at the Bears, to Monday 26 October, the Cowboys at the Eagles: 14 games.

Which NFL teams have a bye in Week 7?

The Bills, the Chargers, the Commanders and the Jaguars.

Who are the biggest favourites in NFL Week 7?

The Texans by 10.5 against the Giants (lost 27-21), the Vikings by 6.5 against the Colts (won 16-10) and the Jets by 4.5 against the Dolphins (lost 28-25).

Which NFL Week 7 game has the highest total?

The Packers at the Lions, at 55.5 points; 37 points were scored.

What is the Statz NFL Best Bets record this season?

72-52, +18.2 units at a 12.7% return, every pick graded once its game is final.

NFL Sunday Special - Week 7 — NFL Betting Guide

Published October 21, 2026 by Statz NFL.

The Statz tipster column for the seventh Sunday of 2026/27: a three-from-nine Week 6 owned in full, the one five-star side of the week, four underdogs and three overs on the Sunday slate, the quarterbacks in doubt, touchdown scorers, five-star props and the longshot slips.

Week 7, with the receipts from Week 6

Last Sunday's card went three from nine, and the six that lost are going in the first paragraph. The wins: Denver plus two and a half on Thursday (17-14 in overtime), Green Bay on the moneyline (23-13) and the Cowboys-Packers under at 53.5, which finished at 36 points. The losses: the Falcons plus one and a half, which Chicago won 31-23; the Giants plus one and a half, which New Orleans won 34-27; Tampa Bay plus two and a half, which Pittsburgh won 26-19 in overtime; the Colts minus six and a half, which Tennessee won outright 26-20; Buffalo minus four and a half at Las Vegas, which Buffalo won by three; and the Panthers-Eagles over at 39.5, which finished on 39. Three home underdogs lost by seven or eight, the favourite we backed lost to the team at the bottom of the league, and the over missed by half a point. At the stakes we named it came to about two and a half points down.

The parlays had the opposite of the week before. All six of the NFL Parlays editions lost, including the Spread Parlay on those three underdogs, and the NFL Parlays record is eight winners from 36, 21.65 points staked and 39.27 returned, 17.62 up. The single-game slips are four from 91, 1.63 up, and the touchdown accas are two from 68, 7.15 down. Week 7 has fourteen games and four teams on a bye: Buffalo, Jacksonville, the Chargers and Washington. Four of the games are on their own, each with a preview: Patriots at Bears on Thursday, Steelers at Saints in Paris on Sunday morning, Chiefs at Seahawks on Sunday night and Cowboys at Eagles on Monday. This column covers the ten games on Sunday afternoon.

Best bets: one five-star side, and six Sunday leans

There is one five-star side on the board this week and it is on Monday: Philadelphia plus four and a half against Dallas at 1.94 on Kalshi, a 57.5% model call against 51.5% implied, covered in the Monday night preview. Jalen Hurts is on injured reserve and Tanner McKee is the quarterback, so it is a half-point bet. The Thursday and Sunday-night games each carry a four-star lean, New England plus three and a half and Kansas City plus two and a half, and the Paris over at 44.5 is the third; all three are in their previews.

The Sunday afternoon slate has six leans, half a point each. Indianapolis plus six and a half at Minnesota at 1.94 on Kalshi is a 54.3% call against 51.5%: the Vikings are 5-0 with the league's top-ranked defence but J.J. McCarthy is out and Kyler Murray starts, and the model has Minnesota by four, not six and a half. The Giants plus ten and a half at Houston at 1.90 on Kalshi is a 56.4% call against 52.6%, with Joe Mixon and Noah Whittington out for the Texans; the Giants-Texans over at 42.5 at 1.96 on Kalshi is a 55.6% call against 51%, the model total 48.7, six points over the market's. Arizona plus four and a half against Denver at 1.98 on Kalshi is a 53.9% call against 50.5%, and the Broncos-Cardinals over at 42.5 at 1.89 on Polymarket is a 56.3% call against 53.1%, on a model total of 47.6. The sixth is a lean on the other side of the total: the Bengals-Ravens under at 51.5 at 1.85 on DraftKings, a 57.2% call against 51.7%, the model total 46.2, five points under, with Lamar Jackson questionable again with the ankle.

Colts +6.5 at the Vikings — Spread, IND @ MIN, Sun 6pm UK / 1pm ET — at 1.94 — McCarthy is out for Minnesota. The model has the Vikings by four. Game preview
Giants +10.5 at the Texans — Spread, NYG @ HOU, Sun 6pm UK / 1pm ET — at 1.90 — The model has Houston by seven. Mixon and Whittington are out. Game preview
Over 42.5, Giants at Texans — Total, NYG @ HOU — at 1.96 — Model total 48.7, six points above the market. Game preview
Cardinals +4.5 v the Broncos — Spread, DEN @ ARI, Sun 9:05pm UK / 4:05pm ET — at 1.98 — The model has Denver by two. Arizona beat the Rams 18-16 last week. Game preview
Over 42.5, Broncos at Cardinals — Total, DEN @ ARI — at 1.89 — Model total 47.6. Denver's last two games were 17-14 and 23-17. Game preview
Under 51.5, Bengals at Ravens — Total, CIN @ BAL — at 1.85 — Model total 46.2, five points under. Lamar Jackson is questionable. Game preview

The Sunday parlays

The Totals Parlay on the NFL Parlays page is three overs: Giants-Texans over 42.5 at 1.93, Broncos-Cardinals over 42.5 at 1.89 and Steelers-Saints over 44 at 1.89, for 6.84. The model has it at 17.5% against 14.6% implied, and it is a point. The Bold One at 20.63 is the Cardinals on the moneyline at 3.08, the Giants plus ten at 1.89, the Paris over at 44 and Browns-Titans over 37.5 at 1.88, the model at 6.5% against 4.9%, a quarter of a point. The late Slate Parlay at 5.43 is Jacoby Brissett under 244.5 passing yards at 1.86, Amon-Ra St. Brown over 69.5 receiving yards at 1.57 and Ashton Jeanty under 51.5 rushing yards at 1.86, the model at 23.9% against 18.4%, a quarter. The early-games Slate Parlay is at 10.46, the model at 16.8% against 9.6%. Last week's Totals Parlay lost on all three legs; this week's three are all overs the model has above the market.

Totals Parlay — NYG-HOU o42.5 · DEN-ARI o42.5 · PIT-NO o44 — at 6.84 — Three overs the model has above the market by three to six points. Game preview
The Bold One — Cardinals ML · Giants +10 · PIT-NO o44 · CLE-TEN o37.5 — at 20.63 — The totals parlay with two underdogs. A quarter of a point. Game preview

Where the model and the market really disagree

The widest gaps on the main lines, in points, framed as questions. Cowboys at Eagles: Dallas by four and a half in the market, Philadelphia by a fraction in the model, nearly five points, and the question is how much of the Eagles' team number is Hurts. Patriots at Bears: Chicago by three against a New England win by half a point, three and a half points, and the question is A.J. Brown's status. Chiefs at Seahawks: Seattle by two and a half against Kansas City by half a point, three points. Giants at Texans: Houston by ten against Houston by seven, three points, with Houston's backs out. Broncos at Cardinals: Denver by four and a half against Denver by two, two and a half points. Colts at Vikings: Minnesota by six and a half against Minnesota by four, two and a half, with McCarthy out. 49ers at Falcons runs the other way: San Francisco by three in the market and by five in the model, with Aiyuk and Samuel out for the 49ers again.

The totals disagree as much as the sides. The model has Giants-Texans at 48.7 against a market of 42.5, six points over; Bengals-Ravens at 46.2 against 51.5, five points under; Broncos-Cardinals at 47.6 against 43.5, four points over; Dolphins-Jets at 41.9 against 38.5, three over; Steelers-Saints at 47.6 against 44.5, three over; Browns-Titans at 40.3 against 37.5, nearly three over. The quiet ones: Packers-Lions, Rams-Raiders and Buccaneers-Panthers are priced close to the model and it has nothing to say about their sides.

The quarterbacks, and what they do to the numbers

Jalen Hurts is on injured reserve and expected to miss the season; Tanner McKee starts for Philadelphia on Monday. J.J. McCarthy is out for Minnesota and Kyler Murray starts. Lamar Jackson is questionable for Baltimore with an ankle, as he was last week, and Baker Mayfield is questionable for Tampa Bay with a thumb, which would mean Jalon Daniels again. Taysom Hill is questionable behind Tyler Shough for New Orleans, and Trevor Siemian is questionable as Atlanta's backup with Cooper Rush out. The inactives drop 90 minutes before each kick-off, about 4:30pm UK for the 6pm games. The injury table is live.

Touchdown scorers

The gaps the model sees on the scorer board: Isaiah Likely at 2.95 for the Giants is a 41% call against 34%, three stars, with the Giants getting ten points; Ollie Gordon II at 2.75 for Miami is a 42% call against 36%, three stars, and Malik Washington at 3.90 a 29% call against 26%; Isaac TeSlaa at 4.75 for Detroit is a 28% call against 21%, three stars; Cam Skattebo at 3.00 a 36% call against 33%; Pat Freiermuth at 3.60 is covered in the Paris preview. Derrick Henry at 1.47 is a 70% call against 68%, and he has scored in four of his last five. Tee Higgins at 2.35 is a 46% call against 43%, and Michael Wilson at 2.90 a 37% call against 34%.

The fades are the short prices. Swift at 1.58 is a 42% call priced at 63%; Bijan Robinson at 1.50 a 54% call priced at 67%; Aaron Jones at 1.71 a 43% call priced at 58%; Chuba Hubbard at 1.54 a 52% call priced at 65%; David Montgomery at 1.74 a 38% call priced at 57%; Puka Nacua at 1.64 a 46% call priced at 61%; Jeanty at 1.86 a 42% call priced at 54%. The Touchdown Parlays page builds the accas: Running Backs on the Sunday slate at 5.83 is Henry at 1.48, Skattebo at 3.10 and Jahmyr Gibbs at 1.27, the model at 19.1% against 17.2%, a point.

Props the model rates

The five-stars on the Props Tool are mostly under-the-line receivers and quarterbacks who do not run. Derrick Henry over 81.5 rushing yards at 1.86 is projected at 133 against the Bengals, a 64% model call, and Henry over 18.5 carries at 1.86 is projected at 25, 64%. Justin Jefferson under 6.5 receptions at 1.68 is projected at 4.7, 67%; Ja'Marr Chase under 7.5 receptions at 1.71 is projected at 6.1, 65%; Tyler Warren under 41.5 receiving yards at 1.86 is projected at 27, 64%; Garrett Wilson under 68.5 receiving yards at 1.86 is projected at 51, 64%. Malik Willis over 171.5 passing yards at 1.86 is projected at 223, 64%, and Willis under 38.5 rushing yards at 1.86 is projected at 30, 63%. Michael Wilson over 4.5 receptions at 2.20 for Arizona is projected at six, 56%. Jordan Love is under on all three of his markets again: under 7.5 rushing yards (projected 6.2), under 2.5 carries (1.8) and under 284.5 passing yards (257).

Derrick Henry over 81.5 rushing yards — RB, BAL · v the Bengals — at 1.86 — Projected 133 on 25 carries, with the grid giving the Ravens' run game a 75% edge. Jackson is the caveat on the game. Game preview
Malik Willis over 171.5 passing yards — QB, MIA · at the Jets — at 1.86 — Projected 223 against a line that asks for 172. Game preview
Justin Jefferson under 6.5 receptions — WR, MIN · v the Colts — at 1.68 — Projected 4.7 catches with Kyler Murray starting. Game preview

Longshots: the published slips

Nine same-game slips are published for Week 7 on the Single Game Parlays page across six games, and the Week 7 round-up ranks them. The record on that surface is four winners from 91 for 14.2 points staked and 15.83 returned, 1.63 up. The widest gaps this week are the three Steelers-Saints slips, the Browns-Titans One Passing Game at 72.98 (Harold Fannin Jr. to score and over 49.5 receiving yards, KC Concepcion over 35.5, Deshaun Watson over 249.5; 5.7% against 1.4%) and the two Cowboys-Eagles slips. A tenth to a quarter of a point each, 1.15 points for the whole page.

Staking, and the ledger

Half a point on each of the six Sunday leans, half a point on the four primetime and Paris leans in their previews, a point on the Totals Parlay and a quarter on the Bold One, a point on Henry and half a point on the Willis and Jefferson props: about eight points of exposure before the slips and the props in the previews. The staking has not changed.

Check three things before the first kick-off: Jackson, Mayfield and the Thursday-night injury report for Brown. If Jackson is out, the Ravens-Bengals bets and the Henry prop are different bets.

Our Best Bets: the Pro page

Our Best Bets are a Pro page: five-star singles and parlays, locked once published and every one graded in public. The ledger stands at 67-49, 15.44 points up at an 11.5% return, and Week 6 went five from nine. The Sunday card goes out on Friday morning.

Put it to work

Best Bets (Pro) Star-rated singles and parlays, every one graded in public: 67-49, +15.44 points, 11.5% ROI.
NFL Parlays The totals parlay, the bold one and the slate and primetime editions.
Injuries Hurts is out for the season; Jackson and Mayfield are questionable.

NFL Sunday Special - Week 7