Statz NFL is the NFL site of Statz: position-aware stats for every player, team and game, previews with our model's prediction, player prop lines with hit rates, and weekly Best Bets graded in public.
What Statz NFL is
Statz NFL is the American football site of Statz (statz.ai), a sports statistics and betting analysis company based in the UK. It covers every NFL team, player and game: box scores and game logs, season stats with each player's rank at his position, standings, schedules, rosters and depth charts, injury reports, and the week's betting lines.
Every stat page is position-aware: a quarterback's page leads with passing, a running back's with rushing and receiving, a defender's with tackles and sacks. Every game a player takes the field in counts, including the ones where he recorded nothing.
Where the numbers come from
Game and player statistics come from an NFL data feed, updated as each game goes final. Schedules, snap counts and personnel come from the open nflverse project. Betting lines and player props are bet365's posted prices, read through the week, and injury designations follow the official team reports.
How the model works
The Statz model runs one opponent-adjusted, QB-aware power rating across every upcoming NFL game and turns it into the tools below. Projected scores, win probabilities and spread/total leans for game betting. De-vigged model-vs-market edges for the week's best bets. Super Bowl, conference, division and playoff odds from ten thousand season simulations. Season-long fantasy rankings with tiers and value over replacement. Every number is built from EPA-based ratings blended with the live market — nothing is a gut call. Use the rail to jump straight to a tool, or scroll for this week's top picks across each one.
How Best Bets are picked and graded
Best Bets is our projections against the price. The model prices every game on the slate — spread, total and moneyline, at the best price across the books — and every player prop the book has posted on its main lines: receiving, rushing and passing yards, receptions, passing touchdowns and anytime scorers. Our chance for a bet sets our fair price: a 58% chance is a fair price of 1.73. A bet makes the list when it rates five stars: we make it at least 55% to win and the price is at least 10% better than our fair price, at 1.40 or longer. A player prop needs one thing more: the matchup on its side, the opponent among the ten softest defences for that stat for an over and among the ten toughest for an under. We tip at most ten a week and one a game; where more qualify than there are places, the props the player's own last ten games back go first, then the rating and how far the price beats our fair price. A tip is locked once it is published: nothing replaces it, and it comes off only if its player is ruled out or its game is called off, when it is void. Beside the singles sit up to five parlays a week: the Primetime Parlay on each standalone game, then Slate Parlays built from the five-star bets the singles leave out, each at the stake it was published at. One guard keeps the model honest: our chance is never the model's alone — it is capped at 75% and blended half and half with the chance the price itself implies, so a number far from the market's is pulled back toward it. These are our best bets, not locks.
Since September 3, 2026 the published Best Bets have gone 47-40, +8.5 points at a 8.4% return on stakes.
Responsible gambling
Statz NFL is for readers aged 18 and over. Betting should stay fun: set a limit before you start, and if it stops being fun, BeGambleAware.org offers free, confidential help.
Contact
Questions, corrections and feedback: [email protected], or the feedback button on any page.
Put it to work
- NFL Projections every game and player, projected by the model
- NFL Best Bets this week's tips
- Best Bets Tracker every tip, graded at its published price
- Prop Hit Rates how often each player clears his line
- NFL Schedule & Scores every game, week by week