AI NFL Predictions: The Model's Pick for Every Game

Updated October 1, 2026 by Statz NFL.

AI NFL predictions for every game this week from the Statz model: the side it favours in each game, how the model is built, and how its Best Bets are picked and graded in public.

Week 4: the model's predictions

The side the model favours in every game, from the same ratings that drive every page on Statz NFL, with the first game's projected score and win probability in full; every game's are on the projections board for NFL Pro members. Each game page has the full preview: odds, injuries and player props.

Steelers 21, Browns 18 — Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns · Thu Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET — The model makes the Pittsburgh Steelers 58% to win. Game preview
The model favours the Colts — Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders · Sun Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET Game preview
The model favours the Bills — New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET Game preview
The model favours the Bears — New York Jets at Chicago Bears · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET Game preview
The model favours the Jaguars — Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET Game preview
The model favours the Giants — Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET Game preview
The model favours the Rams — Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET Game preview
The model favours the Buccaneers — Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET Game preview
The model favours the Ravens — Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET Game preview
The model favours the Texans — Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET Game preview
The model favours the Vikings — Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings · Sun Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET Game preview
The model favours the Chiefs — Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders · Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET Game preview
The model favours the 49ers — Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers · Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET Game preview
The model favours the Seahawks — Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks · Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET Game preview
The model favours the Lions — Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers · Sun Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET Game preview
The model favours the Saints — Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints · Mon Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET Game preview

How the AI model predicts NFL games

The Statz model runs one opponent-adjusted, QB-aware power rating across every upcoming NFL game and turns it into the tools below. Projected scores, win probabilities and spread/total leans for game betting. De-vigged model-vs-market edges for the week's best bets. Super Bowl, conference, division and playoff odds from ten thousand season simulations. Season-long fantasy rankings with tiers and value over replacement. Every number is built from EPA-based ratings blended with the live market — nothing is a gut call. Use the rail to jump straight to a tool, or scroll for this week's top picks across each one.

For each upcoming game the Statz model projects a final score, a win probability for both sides and a spread and total, then shows the market line alongside so you can see exactly where the model disagrees. Ratings are opponent-adjusted and QB-aware, blended with the closing market where one exists and with the live book consensus before lines are posted. Click any game for the full projection, the model edge and the multi-book odds.

From predictions to Best Bets

Best Bets is our projections against the price. The model prices every game on the slate — spread, total and moneyline, at the best price across the books — and every player prop the book has posted on its main lines: receiving, rushing and passing yards, receptions, passing touchdowns and anytime scorers. Our chance for a bet sets our fair price: a 58% chance is a fair price of 1.73. A bet makes the list when it rates five stars: we make it at least 55% to win and the price is at least 10% better than our fair price, at 1.40 or longer. A player prop needs one thing more: the matchup on its side, the opponent among the ten softest defences for that stat for an over and among the ten toughest for an under. We tip at most ten a week and one a game; where more qualify than there are places, the props the player's own last ten games back go first, then the rating and how far the price beats our fair price. A tip is locked once it is published: nothing replaces it, and it comes off only if its player is ruled out or its game is called off, when it is void. Beside the singles sit up to five parlays a week: the Primetime Parlay on each standalone game, then Slate Parlays built from the five-star bets the singles leave out, each at the stake it was published at. One guard keeps the model honest: our chance is never the model's alone — it is capped at 75% and blended half and half with the chance the price itself implies, so a number far from the market's is pulled back toward it. These are our best bets, not locks.

The published record since September 3, 2026: 47-40, +8.5 points, a 8.4% return on stakes. Every tip is graded at the price it was published at.

Using AI predictions well

Compare the model to the market: a prediction matters when it disagrees with the line, and Best Bets only tips when the price is better than our fair price.
Check the injury report before kickoff. The model reads designations as they post; a late scratch moves a game.
Treat a win probability as a probability: a 70% favourite loses three times in ten.
Bet only what you can afford to lose. 18+, BeGambleAware.org.

Put it to work

NFL Game Projections every game's projected score and spread
NFL Best Bets where the model beats the price
Best Bets Tracker every tip, graded in public
NFL Player Projections the model's box score for every player