Model Edges and Star Ratings, Explained

Published July 16, 2026 by Statz NFL.

What an "edge" actually measures, why ours are leans rather than picks, and how the star rating condenses it.

Edge = model % minus market %

An edge is how far our chance for a bet sits above the chance the sportsbook's price implies, in percentage points. A positive edge means we think the side is underpriced.

Why leans, never locks

An edge says the price is wrong, not that the bet will win. Even the best bets lose often, which is why we call them leans, not locks.

The star rating

Stars rate a bet at its price: the further the price beats what we make it, the more stars, up to five. Zero stars means no value at this price, not a prediction of defeat.

Expected value

Expected value turns an edge into expected profit per dollar staked at the book's actual price, which is why the best price matters: the same side at a better price is simply a better bet.

Put it to work

Best Bets The week's edges, tiered and star-rated.

More NFL betting guides

Frequently asked questions

What is an edge in sports betting?

The gap between the probability a model gives a bet and the probability implied by the bookmaker's price, in percentage points. A positive edge means the model thinks the bet is underpriced.

What do the Best Bets star ratings mean?

Stars rate a bet at its current price, up to five. More stars means the price beats our estimate by more; zero stars means there is no value at that price, not that the bet will lose.

Does a big edge mean a bet will win?

No. An edge says the price is wrong, not that the outcome is likely. Bets with real edges still lose often, which is why we call them leans.

How is an edge different from expected value?

An edge is measured in probability; expected value turns it into profit per unit staked at the actual price. The same edge is worth more at a better price.