NFL Player Prop Projections 2026 — Every Posted Prop vs the Model

Frequently asked questions

Why are some players missing?

The board lists only the props the sportsbook has posted for the week. Every player's full projection is on the Player Projections page.

What are player prop projections?

Our projected number for each player prop, whether yards, receptions or touchdowns, set beside the sportsbook's line.

What does the model percentage mean?

How often we expect the side we lean to win at the book's line. It is a probability, not a guarantee.

What does the last 10 show?

How many of his last ten games went over this week's line, or for an anytime touchdown, how many he scored in.

What are NFL player props?

Bets on a player's own numbers in a game - his passing, rushing or receiving yards, his receptions, whether he scores - rather than on the result.

What is an anytime touchdown bet?

A bet that a player scores at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in the game. Passing touchdowns do not count.

What is an alternate line?

A line above or below the book's main line on the same stat, at a longer or shorter price: 80+ receiving yards instead of over 64.5.

When are NFL player props released?

The books post most of the week's player props midweek, a few days before the games, and keep moving them until kickoff.

Learn the market

  • NFL Player Props, Explained
  • A Player-Props Research Workflow
  • Same-Game Parlays: Why the Quoted Price Lies

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