Single Game Parlays Week 6: Fourteen Slips, Ranked by the Model

Published October 15, 2026 by Statz NFL.

Every same-game slip the engine has published for Week 6, ranked by the gap between the model's chance and the price: the 49ers' passing game with no Aiyuk or Samuel, the Giants-Saints throwing script, three Steelers-Buccaneers slips, the London slips and the Rams workhorse.

The record after Week 5

Four winners from 77 slips, 11.65 points staked and 15.83 returned, a profit of 4.18 points at the declared stakes. None of Week 5's seventeen slips landed. The nearest were the Tampa Bay at Dallas Primetime Parlay, which had four of five legs, and the Throwing Festival on Colts at Steelers, which had three of four. The 55/1 on Giants at Rams in Week 2 is still most of the profit, which is how a longshot page works and the reason every slip here is a tenth to a quarter of a point.

Fourteen slips are up so far for Week 6 across five games, and a few more may be added on Friday and Saturday: Steelers at Buccaneers and Texans at Jaguars have four each. Each is a script about one game; the number on every card is the gap between the model's chance and the implied one. Ranked by that gap, widest first. All prices bet365.

The 49ers and the Giants-Saints passing slips

The One Passing Game on Commanders at 49ers at 108.16 has the widest gap on the page, 5.3% against 0.9%: George Kittle over 89.5 receiving yards at 3.55, Kittle over 7.5 receptions at 4.20, Mike Evans over 70.5 receiving yards at 1.86 and Brock Purdy over 299.5 passing yards at 3.90. With Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel both out, the 49ers' passing game runs through Kittle and Evans, and the Washington pass defence allows 269 yards a game, 29th. The Second Receiver Ceiling on the same game at 76.99 is Kittle over 99.5 yards, Kittle over 7.5 catches and Purdy over 299.5, 5.2% against 1.3%. Both are a tenth of a point.

The One Passing Game on Saints at Giants at 136.86 is the longest price of the week and the second-widest gap, 4.0% against 0.7%: Tyler Shough over 274.5 passing yards at 3.25, Chris Olave over 109.5 receiving yards at 3.55, Juwan Johnson over 59.5 receiving yards at 3.65 and Johnson over 5.5 receptions at 3.25. New Orleans throw for 260 yards a game, ninth, against a Giants pass defence ranked seventh, which is the argument against it. The Chase Script at 87.98 is Shough over 274.5, Cam Skattebo to score at 1.86, Devaughn Vele to score at 3.55 and Vele over 69.5 receiving yards at 4.10, 3.9% against 1.1%. The Second Receiver Ceiling at 53.87 is Shough, Johnson over 69.5 yards at 5.10 and Johnson over 5.5 catches, 6.6% against 1.9%, 0.15 of a point.

One Passing Game, WSH @ SF — Kittle o89.5 rec 3.55 · Kittle o7.5 rec 4.20 · Evans o70.5 rec 1.86 · Purdy o299.5 3.90 — at 108.16 — The widest gap on the page: a passing game with two receivers out and a defence that allows 269 a game. Game preview
One Passing Game, NO @ NYG — Shough o274.5 3.25 · Olave o109.5 rec 3.55 · Johnson o59.5 rec 3.65 · Johnson o5.5 rec 3.25 — at 136.86 — The longest price of the week. Four legs on one passing game. Game preview

Steelers at Buccaneers and Texans at Jaguars

Steelers at Buccaneers has four slips and two of them carry the biggest probabilities on the page. The Tight End Day at 47.81 is Aaron Rodgers over 229.5 passing yards at 1.86, Pat Freiermuth to score at 3.60, Freiermuth over 39.5 receiving yards at 2.04 and Freiermuth over 4.5 receptions at 3.50, the model at 12.0% against 2.1%, 0.15 of a point: one of two slips on the page with a double-digit chance and a price above 40. The One Passing Game at 50.25 is Rodgers over 274.5 at 3.35, DK Metcalf over 59.5 receiving yards at 2.24, Freiermuth to score and Freiermuth over 33.5 yards at 1.86, 10.3% against 2.0%. The Second Receiver Ceiling at 88.84 is Jalon Daniels over 224.5 passing yards at 3.90, Rodgers over 274.5 and Chris Godwin Jr. over 59.5 receiving yards at 6.80, 5.7% against 1.1%; Mayfield is doubtful, so Daniels starts for Tampa Bay. The Workhorse Back at 23.72 is Bucky Irving to score at 2.55, Irving over 3.5 receptions at 5.00 and Irving over 62.5 rushing yards at 1.86, 10.2% against 4.2%, a quarter of a point.

Texans at Jaguars has four: the Tight End Day at 122.20 (Lawrence over 220.5 passing yards, Brenton Strange to score at 4.50, over 59.5 receiving yards at 4.00, over 5.5 receptions at 3.65; 3.8% against 0.8%), the One Passing Game at 75 (Lawrence over 220.5, Parker Washington to score at 2.80, over 89.5 yards at 3.60, Strange over 59.5; 5.6% against 1.3%), the Second Receiver Ceiling at 33.48 (Lawrence over 220.5, Jakobi Meyers to score at 4.50 and over 59.5 yards at 4.00; 6.0% against 3.0%) and the Defensive Battle at 11.97 (Lawrence under 220.5, Stroud under 255.5, Collins under 71.5 receiving yards, Washington under 62.5 receiving yards, all at 1.86; 17.0% against 8.4%, a quarter of a point). The Defensive Battle is the one that contradicts the other three: the over-script slips need Lawrence to throw, the Defensive Battle needs him not to. The slip is a script, the single is a line, and the London preview has the lines.

Tight End Day, PIT @ TB — Rodgers o229.5 1.86 · Freiermuth TD 3.60 · Freiermuth o39.5 rec 2.04 · Freiermuth o4.5 rec 3.50 — at 47.81 — The highest chance on the page for a price above 40. Everything rides on one tight end. Game preview
Workhorse Back, PIT @ TB — Irving TD 2.55 · Irving o3.5 rec 5.00 · Irving o62.5 rush 1.86 — at 23.72 — One back doing everything. Three legs, a quarter of a point. Game preview
Defensive Battle, HOU @ JAX — Lawrence u220.5 · Stroud u255.5 · Collins u71.5 rec · Washington u62.5 rec — at 11.97 — The only under-script slip on the London game, and the shortest price on the page. Game preview

The Rams workhorse

The Workhorse Back on Cardinals at Rams at 25.20 is Kyren Williams to score at 1.50, Williams over 4.5 receptions at 4.20 and Williams over 99.5 rushing yards at 4.00, the model at 5.9% against 4.0%, 0.15 of a point and the narrowest gap on the page. Los Angeles are 12-and-a-half-point favourites at a total of 51.5; the game is priced for a big Williams day and the slip asks for most of one.

How to play the page

Pick the scripts you believe, not the prices. The five widest gaps are the 49ers One Passing Game, the Saints-Giants One Passing Game and three of the Steelers-Buccaneers slips, and they come to under a point between them at the declared stakes. The whole page is 1.95 points. The one rule on a page like this is the one that has held since Week 2: a 55/1 winner pays for months of tenths, and it only pays if you were on it for a tenth every week.

Check the injury table before the 6pm kick-offs on Sunday, when the inactives drop. A player who is ruled out voids his leg and the slip shortens; a player who starts hurt plays to his line. The Best Bets for the week, a different page and a different ledger, are the Pro page: Best Bets, 62-45, 15.85 points up at a 12.8% return.

Put it to work

Single Game Parlays The published slips with every leg, price and the record at the declared stakes.
Props Tool Every priced prop the model rates, one board; the legs on these slips come from it.
Best Bets (Pro) Star-rated singles and parlays, every one graded in public: 62-45, +15.85 points, 12.8% ROI.