Single Game Parlays Week 4: Twenty-Six Slips, Ranked by the Correlation Model

Published October 3, 2026 by Statz NFL.

Every same-game slip the engine published for Week 4, ranked by the gap between the model's joint probability and the price: three Chargers-Seahawks scripts lead, the Jets-Bears tight end play, the Winston-Likely slip in New Jersey, the London and Monday-night scripts, and the lottery tickets.

The record after Week 3

Four winners from 45 slips, 7.2pt staked and 15.83pt returned, a profit of 8.63pt at the declared stakes. The fourth winner was a small one: the Second Receiver Ceiling on Jets at Lions landed with void legs for 0.2pt on 0.1pt. Forty-one lost, and the 55/1 on Giants at Rams two weeks ago is still most of the profit, which is how a longshot page works and the reason every one of these round-ups says so.

Twenty-six slips are up for Week 4 across twelve games. Each is a script about one game, priced by the correlation model rather than by multiplying the legs; the number on every card is the gap between the model's joint probability and the implied one. Ranked by that gap, with the stake rule attached: a quarter to 25.0, 0.15 to 60.0, a tenth beyond.

The quarter-point slips

Chargers at Seahawks on Sunday afternoon is where the model has found the most, and it has found two opposite scripts for the same game. Second Receiver Ceiling at 13.27 is Justin Herbert over 195.5 passing yards with Ladd McConkey to score and over 45.5 receiving yards, 15.9% against 7.5% implied, the best gap on the board. Defensive Battle at 11.97 is four unders, Herbert under 195.5, Sam Darnold under 236.5, Quentin Johnston under 37.5 and Jaxon Smith-Njigba under 91.5, 14% against 8.4%. They cannot both land, and the second agrees with the Sunday Special's four-star under on the game. If you take one, take the one that matches your view of the total. McConkey is questionable with a foot.

Tight End Day, Jets at Bears, 11.59: Geno Smith over 220.5 passing yards with Kenyon Sadiq to score and over 37.5 receiving yards, 15.8% against 8.6%. Mason Taylor is out, so Sadiq is the Jets' tight end by default; he is also questionable with a back injury, which is the Saturday check. Three quarter-point slips, two of them with a questionable tag, which is the week in miniature.

Second Receiver Ceiling, LAC @ SEA — Herbert o195.5 + McConkey TD + McConkey o45.5 rec yds — at 13.27 — The best gap of the week. McConkey questionable (foot). Game preview
Defensive Battle, LAC @ SEA — Herbert u195.5 + Darnold u236.5 + Johnston u37.5 + Smith-Njigba u91.5 — at 11.97 — The opposite script, and the one that agrees with the under on the card. Game preview
Tight End Day, NYJ @ CHI — Geno Smith o220.5 + Sadiq TD + Sadiq o37.5 rec yds — at 11.59 — Sadiq is the Jets' tight end with Taylor out, and questionable himself. Game preview

The 0.15 slips

One Passing Game, Chargers at Seahawks, 30.57: Oronde Gadsden over 24.5, Herbert over 195.5, Quentin Johnston to score and over 37.5. The third version of the Chargers-throw script, 10.8% against 3.3%. Second Receiver Ceiling, Cardinals at Giants, 50.92: Jameis Winston over 210.5 passing yards with Isaiah Likely to score and over 79.5 receiving yards, 10.6% against 2%, five times the implied chance, and the Winston-throws-a-lot script in a game the Sunday Special has going over at five stars. Second Receiver Ceiling, Packers at Buccaneers, 55.10: Matthew Golden to score and over 89.5 with Jordan Love over 299.5, 6.1% against 1.8%; a Jalon Daniels start at the other end makes the Packers the team that throws.

Second Receiver Ceiling, ARI @ NYG — Winston o210.5 + Likely TD + Likely o79.5 rec yds — at 50.92 — Five times the implied chance. The same script as the over on the card. Game preview
One Passing Game, LAC @ SEA — Gadsden o24.5 + Herbert o195.5 + Johnston TD + Johnston o37.5 — at 30.57 — The Chargers-throw script, one rung down from McConkey. Game preview

The tenth-of-a-point slips

The rest of the board is lottery tickets priced at three to six times their implied chance. Jets at Bears carries four more, all built on Geno Smith throwing: One Passing Game at 66.17 (8% against 1.5%), Chase Script at 76.27 with Garrett Wilson to score and over 124.5 (5.6% against 1.3%), Second Receiver Ceiling on Isaiah Williams at 71.71 and Throwing Festival at 141.74 with Tyson Bagent over 274.5. Cardinals at Giants has a Blowup Total at 148.87 and a Throwing Festival at 149.18 around Michael Wilson. Packers at Buccaneers has a Blowup Total at 132.13, a Throwing Festival at 123.99 and One Passing Game at 63.41 on Emeka Egbuka. Rams at Eagles has the Chase Script at 81.35, Jalen Hurts over 249.5 with Kyren Williams and Dontayvion Wicks to score, 5.9% against 1.2%, and a Makai Lemon Second Receiver Ceiling at 116.87.

London has One Passing Game at 75.98 and Second Receiver Ceiling at 73.26, both Keenan Allen scripts (7.6% and 5.8% against about 1.3%), plus a Throwing Festival at 149. Titans at Ravens has a Carnell Tate Chase Script at 60.68 and One Passing Game at 82.66. Broncos at 49ers has two Evan Engram slips at 80 and 120. Monday night has One Passing Game at 89.69 and Second Receiver Ceiling at 71.15 on Juwan Johnson. A tenth each, and take at most one per game.

How to play the page

Twenty-six slips at the declared stakes is about 3.4pt of exposure, more than usual because the board is bigger. The three quarter-point slips carry the edge, and two of them need a Saturday injury report to go their way. Take one of the two Chargers-Seahawks scripts, not both; take the Likely slip if you like the Giants over; and take the tenth-of-a-point slips as entertainment with a positive expected value and a 95% chance of a blank weekend. Every card carries the naive product beside the model's joint probability, so the correlation doing the work is on the ticket before you buy it.

Put it to work

Single Game Parlays All twenty-six slips with their receipts, the record and the winner cards.
Injuries McConkey and Sadiq decide two of the quarter-point slips.