When does NFL Week 9 start?

Week 9 runs from Thursday 5 November, the Jaguars at the Ravens, to Monday 9 November, the Bills at the Vikings: 15 games.

Who are the biggest favourites in NFL Week 9?

The Jaguars by 10 against the Ravens, the Chiefs by 10 against the Jets and the 49ers by 10 against the Raiders.

Which NFL Week 9 game has the highest total?

The Bengals at the Falcons and the Raiders at the 49ers, at 52.5 points.

What is the Statz NFL Best Bets record this season?

77-58, +15.1 units at a 9.7% return, every pick graded once its game is final.

NFL Sunday Special - Week 9

Published November 5, 2026 by Statz NFL.

Week 9 NFL Sunday Special: power rankings and model scores for the slate, ten bets, scorers and props, plus a seven-from-twelve Week 8 owned in full.

Week 9, with the receipts from Week 8

Last week's game-line card went seven from twelve, and the five that lost are going first. The Sunday leans were six from nine. The wins: Arizona plus seven and a half at Dallas (they won 33-30 in overtime), Pittsburgh minus three and a half against Cleveland (27-6), the Falcons-Buccaneers under (16 points), the Rams minus six and a half against the Chargers (24-9), Denver plus one and a half against Kansas City (28-24) and the Chiefs-Broncos over (52). The losses: the Jets on the moneyline against the Raiders (38-33 to Las Vegas), the Colts-Jaguars under (49 points) and Indianapolis plus ten and a half at Jacksonville, which Jacksonville won 42-7. The previews added the Thursday Packers side, which won 27-19, and two Sunday-night losses: the Eagles-Commanders over, which finished on 37 points, and the Eagles to win.

The props were two from four. Tee Higgins went over 66.5 receiving yards with 155 and Bhayshul Tuten scored; James Cook III ran for 80 against a line of 84.5 and J.K. Dobbins for 13 on seven carries against 24.5. RJ Harvey was not in the Week 8 lineup and is now on injured reserve, so that bet had no action. The parlays were worse: none of the 26 slips on the NFL Parlays, Single Game Parlays and Touchdown Parlays pages won, and the records stand at eight winners from 45 on NFL Parlays (13.32 points up), six from 117 on the single-game slips (0.15 down) and two from 88 on the touchdown accas (14.40 down). The Best Bets went five from ten in Week 8.

Week 9 has fifteen games and two byes, the Steelers and the Titans. Thursday night, Jaguars at Ravens, is already in the previews. This column covers the other fourteen, from Madrid on Sunday morning to Bills at Vikings on Monday night.

The slate by power ranking and projection

The power rankings rate every team in points better or worse than an average side, adjusted for the opponents it has played. After Week 8 the top four are the Bills (+7.0), the Jaguars (+6.4), the Rams (+6.2) and the 49ers (+6.1), and three of them play on this slate: the Rams at Washington, the 49ers at home to the Raiders and the Bills at Minnesota. The list below puts each game's rankings next to the model score and the market: the model is the Statz projection, the market the line at the time of writing.

Bengals (10th, +2.7) v Falcons (19th, -0.8), Madrid, Sunday 2:30pm UK: the model has Cincinnati by 2.5 at 46.2 points, the market Cincinnati by 3 at 52.5.
Cowboys (17th, -0.4) at Colts (23rd, -1.7), 6pm UK: the model has Indianapolis by 0.7 at 51.6, the market Dallas by 5.5 at 51.5.
Jets (21st, -1.2) at Chiefs (8th, +3.1), 6pm UK: Kansas City by 6.3 at 45.9 in the model, by 10 at 47.5 in the market.
Lions (14th, +2.1) at Dolphins (29th, -3.3), 6pm UK: Detroit by 3.4 at 49.8 in the model, by 7 at 50.5 in the market.
Browns (30th, -3.4) at Saints (28th, -3.2), 6pm UK: New Orleans by 3.6 at 43.5 in the model, by 3 at 42.5 in the market.
Giants (25th, -2.1) at Eagles (31st, -4.2), 6pm UK: the model has it level at 41.2 points, the market New York by 3.5 at 38.5.
Rams (3rd, +6.2) at Commanders (20th, -1.2), 6pm UK: Los Angeles by 5.3 at 46.1 in the model, by 5.5 at 47.5 in the market.
Broncos (9th, +3.0) at Panthers (22nd, -1.2), 6pm UK: Denver by 2.2 at 46.7 in the model, by 2.5 at 44.5 in the market.
Texans (11th, +2.3) at Chargers (27th, -2.5), 9:05pm UK: Houston by 2.8 at 43.0 in the model, by 4.5 at 40.5 in the market.
Raiders (26th, -2.3) at 49ers (4th, +6.1), 9:25pm UK: San Francisco by 10.4 at 48.2 in the model, by 10 at 52.5 in the market.
Packers (6th, +3.6) at Patriots (5th, +3.9), 9:25pm UK: New England by 2.2 at 48.3 in the model, by 3.5 at 45.5 in the market.
Cardinals (24th, -2.0) at Seahawks (16th, +0.9), 9:25pm UK: Seattle by 4.9 at 40.8 in the model, by 8.5 at 39.5 in the market.
Buccaneers (13th, +2.1) at Bears (7th, +3.1), Sunday night, 1:20am UK Monday: Chicago by 3 at 43.5 in the model, by 6 at 47.5 in the market.
Bills (1st, +7.0) at Vikings (12th, +2.3), Monday night, 1:15am UK Tuesday: Buffalo by 2.8 at 46.6 in the model, by 3.5 at 45.5 in the market.

What the rankings say that the records do not

The widest rank gap on the slate is the Raiders at the 49ers, 22 places, and the model and the market agree on it to the half point. The rest of the gaps are where the numbers get interesting. The Browns are 5-3 and rank 30th, ahead of only the Eagles and the Titans, because their offence is the second-worst in the ratings and they have scored 17.4 points a game. The Vikings are 6-1 and rank 12th: their defence, at 19.1 points allowed against an average offence, is the best in the NFL, but their offence ranks 27th, and the model has them as underdogs at home to the Bills on Monday. The Texans are 2-5 and rank 11th, which is the ratings' way of saying their record is worse than their football.

The movers are worth a line. The Bears rose seven places to seventh, and the market makes them six-point favourites at home to Tampa Bay on Sunday night where the model has them winning by three. The Seahawks fell twelve places to 16th after losing 34-17 at home to the Bears, and the market still has them by eight and a half over Arizona with Sam Darnold out. The Ravens fell ten, to 18th, and play on Thursday without Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley.

Best bets: three five-stars and seven four-stars

There are three five-star sides on the Sunday and Monday board and seven four-stars, and the first thing to say is that they are one view repeated. All ten are underdogs or unders, the model leaning against the market's bigger numbers every time. If the model is too short on the big favourites this week, it is wrong everywhere at once. A point each on the five-stars and the four-stars with the widest gaps, half a point on the thin ones.

The Colts plus six against the Cowboys at 1.91 on BetRivers is a 60.7% call against 49.8% implied and the widest gap on the board: the model has Indianapolis winning by 0.7, a 52% chance, with Dallas allowing 152.8 rushing yards a game, the most in the NFL, and the matchup grid giving the Colts' rushing offence the edge. The Colts are 2-6 and have a turnover difference of minus 11, the worst in the league, so this is a bet on a number and not on a team. The Cardinals plus nine and a half at Seattle at 1.93 on Kalshi is 57.6% against 51.9%, the model has Seattle by 4.9 and the market 8.5, and the Buccaneers plus six and a half at Chicago at 2.00 on Polymarket is 55.1% against 50%, the model having the Bears by three.

The four-stars: the Bengals-Falcons under 52.5 in Madrid at 2.02 on Kalshi, a 54.6% call with the model total 46.2, six points under the market; the Jets plus ten at Kansas City at 1.91 on Fanatics, 56.6% against 50%; the Dolphins plus seven against Detroit at 1.93 on BetRivers, 56.2% against 49.5%; and the Raiders-49ers under 53 at 1.91 on Fanatics, 55.6% against 50%, with the model total 48.2. At half a point each: the Eagles plus three and a half against the Giants at 1.87 on Kalshi, where the model has the game level; the Chargers plus five and a half against Houston at 1.98 on Polymarket; and the Buccaneers-Bears under 48.5 at 1.93 on Polymarket, the model total 43.5.

Colts +6 v the Cowboys — Spread, DAL @ IND, Sun 6pm UK / 1pm ET — at 1.91 — The model has Indianapolis by 0.7. The widest gap on the card. Game preview
Cardinals +9.5 at the Seahawks — Spread, ARI @ SEA, Sun 9:25pm UK / 4:25pm ET — at 1.93 — The model has Seattle by 4.9 with Sam Darnold out. Check who starts at quarterback. Game preview
Buccaneers +6.5 at the Bears — Spread, TB @ CHI, Mon 1:20am UK / Sun 8:20pm ET — at 2.00 — The model has Chicago by three. Tampa Bay have the best rushing offence in the NFL. Game preview
Under 52.5, Bengals at Falcons — Total, CIN @ ATL, Madrid, Sun 2:30pm UK / 9:30am ET — at 2.02 — Model total 46.2, six points under the market. Game preview
Jets +10 at the Chiefs — Spread, NYJ @ KC, Sun 6pm UK / 1pm ET — at 1.91 — The model has Kansas City by 6.3. Game preview
Dolphins +7 v the Lions — Spread, DET @ MIA, Sun 6pm UK / 1pm ET — at 1.93 — The model has Detroit by 3.4. Amon-Ra St. Brown is questionable. Game preview
Under 53, Raiders at 49ers — Total, LV @ SF, Sun 9:25pm UK / 4:25pm ET — at 1.91 — Model total 48.2. The side is a pass: the model and the market agree on San Francisco by ten. Game preview
Eagles +3.5 v the Giants — Spread, NYG @ PHI, Sun 6pm UK / 1pm ET — at 1.87 — The model has the game level. Philadelphia have lost six in a row. Game preview
Chargers +5.5 v the Texans — Spread, HOU @ LAC, Sun 9:05pm UK / 4:05pm ET — at 1.98 — The model has Houston by 2.8. The Chargers are 0-7. Game preview
Under 48.5, Buccaneers at Bears — Total, TB @ CHI — at 1.93 — Model total 43.5, four points under the market. Game preview

The Sunday parlays

The parlay builders go to the same underdogs. The Spread Parlay on the NFL Parlays page is the Colts plus six at 1.91, the Dolphins plus seven and a half at 1.87 and the Cardinals plus eleven and a half at 1.91, for 6.81: the model has it at 20.1% against 14.7% implied. The Sensible Treble on the page today is the same three legs. The Short-Price Double is the Colts plus six at 1.93 and the Cardinals plus thirteen and a half at 1.87, for 3.60, 36.7% against 27.8%. The Bold One at 33.08 adds the Colts on the moneyline at 3.39, the Jets plus ten at 1.89 and the Eagles to win at 2.70 to the Cardinals leg, and the model has it at 5.6% against 3.0% implied. The late Slate Parlay at 6.60 is Ladd McConkey under 43.5 receiving yards at 1.86, Brock Bowers to score at 2.15 and Rhamondre Stevenson over 49.5 rushing yards at 1.65, 19.5% against 15.2%. Most of the dogs in the first three are also singles above, so the exposure doubles: size them down.

Spread Parlay — Colts +6 1.91 · Dolphins +7.5 1.87 · Cardinals +11.5 1.91 — at 6.81 — Three of the underdogs above on alternate lines. Game preview
Short-Price Double — Colts +6 1.93 · Cardinals +13.5 1.87 — at 3.60 — The shortest edition on the page: two five-star sides, the Cardinals with extra points. Game preview
The Bold One — Colts to win 3.39 · Cardinals +11.5 1.91 · Jets +10 1.89 · Eagles to win 2.70 — at 33.08 — Four underdogs. It needs two outright wins. Game preview
Slate Parlay, Sunday late games — McConkey u43.5 rec yds 1.86 · Bowers anytime TD 2.15 · Stevenson o49.5 rush yds 1.65 — at 6.60 — Three legs across the three late games. Game preview

Where the model and the market really disagree

The widest gaps on the sides, in points, framed as questions. Cowboys at Colts: Dallas by five and a half in the market, Indianapolis by 0.7 in the model, a gap of 6.2, and the question is what the market sees in a Dallas defence that gives up more yards on the ground than any in the league. Giants at Eagles: New York by three and a half against level, 3.6, with Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith both questionable for Philadelphia. Jets at Chiefs: ten against 6.3, 3.7. Lions at Dolphins: seven against 3.4, 3.6. Cardinals at Seahawks: 8.5 against 4.9, 3.6, with the Seattle quarterback in doubt. Buccaneers at Bears: six against three, and Texans at Chargers: 4.5 against 2.8. The sides the model and the market agree on to within a point: the Bengals, the Rams, the Broncos, the Browns-Saints game, the 49ers and the Bills.

The totals disagree more than the sides. The model has Bengals-Falcons at 46.2 against a market of 52.5, six and a quarter points under; Raiders-49ers at 48.2 against 52.5, four and a quarter under; Buccaneers-Bears at 43.5 against 47.5, four under. Going the other way: Packers-Patriots at 48.3 against 45.5, 2.8 over; Giants-Eagles at 41.2 against 38.5, 2.7 over; Texans-Chargers at 43 against 40.5, 2.5 over; and Broncos-Panthers at 46.7 against 44.5, 2.2 over. Those four overs are two-star leans, not bets, and they are not on the card.

The quarterbacks, and the injuries that move the numbers

Three quarterback situations decide how to read the board. Sam Darnold is out for Seattle and Drew Lock is questionable, which is the reason the Cardinals line is 8.5 and not seven. J.J. McCarthy is out for Minnesota and Kyler Murray is questionable for Monday night. And Baltimore, on Thursday, have neither Lamar Jackson nor Tyler Huntley.

On the skill positions: Amon-Ra St. Brown is questionable for Detroit, George Pickens for Dallas, Garrett Wilson for the Jets, Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce for Kansas City, Jaylen Waddle for Miami, Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith for Philadelphia, Michael Wilson for Arizona and Christian McCaffrey for San Francisco. Houston have four running backs out, including Joe Mixon and David Montgomery. The inactives come 90 minutes before each kick-off, 4:30pm UK for the 6pm games and about one o'clock for Madrid. The injury table is live.

Touchdown scorers

James Cook III at 1.76 against the Vikings is the shortest price worth taking: a 66% model call against 57% implied. The longer prices carry bigger gaps. Trey McBride at 2.90 for the Cardinals is a 53% call against 34%, the widest scorer gap on the slate, which is the kind of number that usually means the model knows something about the offence that the book does not, so a quarter of a point and no more. Isaiah Likely at 3.10 for the Giants is a 45% call against 32%, and Tee Higgins at 2.20 against the Falcons in Madrid is a 53% call against 45%, after his two touchdowns last week.

The fades are the short prices. Jahmyr Gibbs at 1.23 is a 76% call, which is high, but it is priced at 81%; Christian McCaffrey at 1.32 is a 61% call priced at 76% and he is questionable; Bijan Robinson at 1.37 is a 49% call priced at 73%; Javonte Williams at 1.45 a 57% call priced at 69%; Kenneth Walker III at 1.43 a 61% call priced at 70%; Chase Brown at 1.52 a 48% call priced at 66%; and D'Andre Swift at 1.50 a 49% call priced at 67%.

James Cook III anytime touchdown — RB, BUF · at the Vikings — at 1.76 — The best of the short prices. Monday night. Game preview
Tee Higgins anytime touchdown — WR, CIN · v the Falcons, Madrid — at 2.20 — Two touchdowns last week. Game preview
Trey McBride anytime touchdown — TE, ARI · at the Seahawks — at 2.90 — The widest scorer gap on the slate. Treat a gap this wide as a flag, not a green light. Game preview
Isaiah Likely anytime touchdown — TE, NYG · at the Eagles — at 3.10 — A 45% call at better than 2/1. Game preview

Props the model rates

The two Sunday five-stars on the Props Tool are both unders. Jared Goff under 1.5 carries at 2.15 is projected at one and a 61% model call against 44%. Adonai Mitchell under 3.5 receptions at 2.15 is projected at 2.5 and a 61% call against 44%, but Garrett Wilson is questionable, and if he is out the line is wrong.

Three leans from the bet-builder board, each ranked among the widest gaps on its game and labelled as leans: Rachaad White over 40.5 rushing yards, projected at 66.5, against a Rams side that has given up 109.3 rushing yards a game; J.K. Dobbins over 28.5 rushing yards, projected at 56, against the 30th-ranked run defence in the Panthers, though he went for 13 on seven carries last week; and James Cook III over 75.5 rushing yards, projected at 120.7, after a miss against 84.5 last week. These projections are the model's reading, not measured hit rates, and edges this big deserve a second look at the injury report on Sunday.

Jared Goff under 1.5 carries — QB, DET · at the Dolphins — at 2.15 — Projected one carry. Game preview
Adonai Mitchell under 3.5 receptions — WR, NYJ · at the Chiefs — at 2.15 — Projected 2.5. Garrett Wilson is questionable: if he is out, leave it. Game preview
Rachaad White over 40.5 rushing yards — RB, WSH · v the Rams — at 1.86 — A lean from the builder board. Projected 66.5. Game preview
J.K. Dobbins over 28.5 rushing yards — RB, DEN · at the Panthers — at 1.86 — A lean. Projected 56 against the 30th-ranked run defence. Game preview
James Cook III over 75.5 rushing yards — RB, BUF · at the Vikings — at 1.86 — A lean. Projected 120.7. He missed a line of 84.5 last week. Game preview

Longshots: the published slips

Sixteen same-game slips are published for Week 9 on the Single Game Parlays page across eight games: four on Jaguars-Ravens, three each on Lions-Dolphins and Cardinals-Seahawks, two on Giants-Eagles and one each on Cowboys-Colts, Jets-Chiefs, Browns-Saints and Texans-Chargers. The longest price is the Throwing Festival in Lions-Dolphins at 149.93, 0.7% implied; the shortest is the Workhorse Back in Jets-Chiefs at 13.62. A tenth to a quarter of a point each, 2.35 points for the whole page.

Staking, and the ledger

A point each on seven singles (the three five-stars and four of the four-stars) and half a point on the other three, 8.5 points; the five-star Goff and Mitchell unders at half a point and the three rushing leans at a quarter, 1.75; Cook at half a point and the three other scorers at a quarter, 1.25; the four parlays at 1.1; and the slips at 2.35, which is 14.95 points in all. It is a big card because ten sides carry a star rating and three of them are five-stars, but every one of the ten leans the same way.

Check three things before the first kick-off: who starts at quarterback in Seattle, the Detroit and Miami injury reports, and Garrett Wilson for the Jets. If Wilson is out, the Mitchell under is off. If the Seattle quarterback is a surprise, the Cardinals line moves and the bet is a different bet.

Our Best Bets: the Pro page

Our Best Bets are a Pro page: five-star singles and parlays, locked once published and every one graded in public. The ledger stands at 77-58, 15.05 points up at a 9.7% return, and Week 8 went five from ten. The Sunday card goes out on Friday morning.

Put it to work

Best Bets (Pro) Star-rated singles and parlays, every one graded in public: 77-58, +15.05 points, 9.7% ROI.
Power Rankings All 32 teams rated in points better or worse than average.
NFL Parlays The spread parlay, the short-price double, the bold one and the slate editions.
Injuries Seattle's quarterback, Garrett Wilson and Amon-Ra St. Brown decide the numbers.