When do the Jaguars play the Ravens in Week 9?

Thursday 5 November 2026, 8:15 PM ET, at M&T Bank Stadium.

What is the spread for Jaguars vs Ravens?

The Jaguars are 10-point favourites, with a total of 39.5 points.

Who leads the Jaguars vs Ravens series?

The Ravens lead 2-1 over the 3 games since 2020.

What is the average score when the Jaguars play the Ravens?

46.3 points a game: the Jaguars average 16.3 and the Ravens 30 in their 3 meetings since 2020.

Jaguars at Ravens Preview: Week 9 Thursday Night Picks, Odds and Projections

Published November 5, 2026 by Statz NFL.

Baltimore without Lamar Jackson against a 5-2 Jacksonville side, with the market at ten points and the model at five. The Ravens' number, the props and the scorers for Jaguars at Ravens on Thursday night.

A ten-point line without Lamar Jackson

Thursday Night Football in Baltimore kicks off at 1:15am UK time on Friday morning, 9:15pm Eastern, at M&T Bank Stadium, open air, on grass. Jacksonville are 5-2 and top of the AFC South after a 42-7 win over Indianapolis; Baltimore are 4-4 and have lost three in a row, 13-10 to Cleveland, 35-13 to Cincinnati and 36-10 at Buffalo. Lamar Jackson is out with a thumb injury and Tyler Huntley is out with a toe, so Joe Fagnano is the quarterback. The market has Jacksonville by ten at a total of 39.5. The full picture is on the game page.

The series is Baltimore 2-1 in the last three, with an average total of 46.3 and two of the three over, which is a long way above 39.5. The last meeting, in Week 15 of 2023, was a 23-7 Baltimore win in Jacksonville; the Jaguars won 28-27 in 2022. This season the two have gone different ways. Jacksonville score 28.0 points a game, fifth, and allow 15.9, second, with the league's best turnover margin at plus seven and the best rushing defence at 77.4 yards a game. Baltimore score 22.4, 19th, and allow 25.4, 22nd. The numbers for each side are on the Jaguars stats and Ravens stats pages.

Where the game is won

The matchup grid gives Baltimore the air and Jacksonville the ground. Baltimore passing against the Jaguars' pass defence is a 73% Ravens edge, because Jacksonville allow 264.3 passing yards a game, 29th, even with the second-best defence by points. On the ground Baltimore running against the league's best run defence is a 54% Jaguars edge. Jacksonville passing against Baltimore is a 55% Jaguars edge, and Jacksonville running against Baltimore is an even 50%. The Jaguars passing and Ravens rushing pages show who carries each side.

The model has Fagnano at 183 passing yards on 17 completions and Trevor Lawrence at 240 and 1.9 touchdowns. Bhayshul Tuten is questionable with an ankle and Travon Walker with a rib injury for the Jaguars; Nate Wiggins is questionable for Baltimore, who are without safety Jaylinn Hawkins. Travis Hunter is on injured reserve. Both depth charts are live and the injury table updates until kick-off.

The model's number

The model has Jacksonville 24.4, Baltimore 19.2, a 43.7 total, and the Jaguars winning 65 times in 100. The market has them by ten, so the two are five points apart on the side, and with Jackson already out the model is not missing that news. Baltimore plus ten at 1.92 on BetRivers is a 58.0% model call against 49.7% implied, five stars, and a half-point bet: past about eight points the model is usually missing news, so the stake stays small. Baltimore on the moneyline at 5.41 on Kalshi is a 26.7% call against 18.5%, three stars, a quarter of a point.

The total is where the market and the model part by the most. The model is four points above the 39.5 line, and the over at 38.5 at 1.87 on Polymarket is a 56.7% call against 53.5%, four stars, a half-point bet. A side and a total that both lean on Baltimore scoring points is a position: it needs Fagnano to do something. Both teams' records against the line are on the Jaguars ATS and Ravens ATS pages.

Ravens +10 v the Jaguars — Spread, JAX @ BAL, Fri 1:15am UK / Thu 9:15pm ET — at 1.92 — The model has Jacksonville by five. An eight-point edge is a flag as well as a price. Game preview
Over 38.5 points — Total, JAX @ BAL — at 1.87 — Model total 43.7 against a line of 39.5. Game preview
Ravens to win — Moneyline, JAX @ BAL — at 5.41 — A 27% shot at better than 4/1. Game preview

Scorers, props and the slips

The props that sit apart from the usage story are about the two offences' ceilings. Joe Fagnano under 6.5 rushing yards at 1.83 is projected at 2.8, a 65% model call, five stars, and the same bet as his under 2.5 carries; a backup quarterback projected for under three yards on the ground. Brian Thomas Jr. over 12.5 receiving yards at 1.86 is projected at 28, 61%, five stars: a line that low says the market expects a limited role, and the model's 3.4 targets is a modest one, so check the snap news before kick-off.

The scorers: Bhayshul Tuten at 1.95 is a 71% call against 51%, and Derrick Henry at 2.35 a 60% call against 43%, the two biggest gaps on the board, with Tuten's ankle the caveat. Zay Flowers at 4.25 is a 35% call against 24%. Mark Andrews at 6.25 is the long price: the Single Game Parlays page has a Tight End Day at 80.91, Fagnano over 158.5 passing yards, Andrews to score and over 24.5 receiving yards and over 3.5 receptions, the model at 7.2% against 1.2%, a tenth of a point, and a Chase Script at 67.48, Tuten and Andrews to score with Fagnano over 174.5 passing yards and Andrews over 24.5 receiving yards, 8.2% against 1.5%. The slips are scripts: they need Fagnano to throw, and the Fagnano rushing under needs nothing.

Joe Fagnano under 6.5 rushing yards — QB, BAL — at 1.83 — Projected 2.8 yards. The same bet as his under 2.5 carries. Game preview
Brian Thomas Jr. over 12.5 receiving yards — WR, JAX — at 1.86 — Projected 28 yards. The line says the market expects a small role. Game preview

The verdict

The model has Jacksonville by five and the market by ten, and the question is whether a team that has lost three in a row by 3, 22 and 26 can score without its quarterback. The case for Baltimore is the Jacksonville pass defence and a total of 39.5 that the model rejects; the case against is that the Ravens' last three games produced 33 points. Half a point on the side and half on the over, a quarter on the moneyline. The news to watch is Tuten's ankle, and whether Fagnano has all his receivers.

Our Best Bets: the Pro page

Every week's star-rated singles and parlays live on the Best Bets page, a Pro feature, and every pick on it is graded in public once the game is final. The ledger stands at 77-58, 15.05 points up at a 9.7% return. Thursday's pick is on the page now.

Thursday Night Best Bet — JAX @ BAL · Best Bets, Pro — The pick, its price and the model's reasoning are on the Best Bets page. Best Bets

Put it to work

Best Bets (Pro) Star-rated singles and parlays, every one graded in public: 77-58, +15.05 points, 9.7% ROI.
Jaguars at Ravens The game page: model, matchups, injuries and odds, then the live score.
Props Tool Every priced prop the model rates for Thursday night.
Injuries Tuten and Wiggins are the names to check before kick-off.