When do the Rams play the Commanders in Week 9?

Sunday 8 November 2026, 1:00 PM ET, at Northwest Stadium.

What is the spread for Rams vs Commanders?

The Rams are 5.5-point favourites, with a total of 47.5 points.

Who leads the Commanders vs Rams series?

The Rams lead 2-0 over the 2 games since 2020.

What is the average score when the Commanders play the Rams?

44 points a game: the Commanders average 15 and the Rams 29 in their 2 meetings since 2020.

Rams at Commanders Preview: Week 9 Sunday Picks, Odds and Projections

Published November 5, 2026 by Statz NFL.

The market has the Rams by 5.5 at 47.5; the model has them by 5.3 at 46.1. With the side and total priced to the model, the Rams at Commanders angles are the running backs and the scorers.

A market and a model that agree

Los Angeles visit Washington on Sunday at 6pm UK time, 1pm Eastern, at Northwest Stadium, open air, on grass. The Rams are 4-4, second in the NFC West, and have won their last two, 35-21 over Las Vegas and 24-9 over the Chargers. Before that came three losses in their last six by a combined nine points: 26-30 to Denver, 34-37 to Buffalo and 16-18 to Arizona. The Commanders are 2-4-1, third in the NFC East, and come off a 27-10 win over Philadelphia after a 17-23 loss to San Francisco and a 27-27 tie with the Giants. The market has the Rams by 5.5 at a total of 47.5. The full picture is on the game page.

The Rams have won both meetings on the series sheet: 28-20 in Week 15 of 2023 as 6.5-point home favourites, and 30-10 in Washington in 2020 as seven-point favourites. They covered both, and both finished under the total, for an average of 44 points against a line of 47.5 this week. On this season's numbers the Rams score 24.3 a game, tenth, at 6.0 yards a play, eighth, and convert 42.7% of third downs. Washington score 22.7, 17th, allow 26.0, 26th, and convert 31.9% of third downs, 31st. The one column that points the other way is turnovers: Washington are plus seven, second, and the Rams minus four, 26th. Both sides are on the Rams stats and Commanders stats pages.

Where the game is won

The matchup grid gives the Rams both passing edges: 79% when they throw at Washington and 74% when Washington throw at them. The first is the sharper one. Los Angeles average 269.9 passing yards a game, sixth, and Washington allow 260.0, 26th. The second is a weaker offence against a pass defence that allows 201.0 yards a game, fourth, as the Commanders average 214.6, 23rd. On the ground it is close: Washington running at the Rams is a 56% Commanders edge, and Los Angeles running at Washington a 52% Rams edge. The Commanders rushing page shows a side that runs for 126.6 a game, ninth.

The model has Matthew Stafford at 270 passing yards and 1.9 touchdowns, and Puka Nacua at 12.9 targets, 8.9 catches and 112.4 yards. Jayden Daniels is at 205.9 yards, 1.4 touchdowns and 44.8 rushing yards. The injury report is long on both sides. For the Rams, Jaylen Watson is out with a shoulder, and Trent McDuffie (back), Zech McPhearson, Kam Curl (foot) and Kamren Kinchens are questionable in the secondary, with Jordan Whittington (back) and Colby Parkinson (ribs) questionable on offence; CJ Daniels and Tutu Atwell are out. For Washington, Luke McCaffrey is out, Treylon Burks (foot), John Bates (shoulder), Sam Cosmi (knee) and Austin Ekeler are questionable, and Terry McLaurin is on injured reserve. Burks is projected for 4.3 targets and Ekeler for 8.3 carries, so those numbers carry the doubt. Check the injury table and both depth charts before kick-off.

The model's number

The model has Los Angeles 25.7, Washington 20.4, a total of 46.1, and the Rams winning 65.4 times in 100. The market has the Rams by 5.5, so the two are a fraction of a point apart on the side, and the total is 1.4 below the 47.5 line. That is why nothing clears the bar. Rams minus 4.5 at 2.00 on Polymarket is a 51.2% call against 50%, two stars. Under 48.5 at 1.98 on Kalshi is 52.3% against 50.5%, two stars. Washington on the moneyline at 3.08 on Kalshi is 33.6% against 32.5%, two stars. A one- or two-point edge is inside the noise, and none of the three is a bet.

The way to read the number is as a confirmation that the line is right, which is useful in itself. A game where the model and the market agree is a game to bet through the players, not the result. Both teams' records against the line are on the Rams ATS and Commanders ATS pages.

Scorers, props and the slips

The scorers do not help. Kyren Williams at 1.64 is a 58.1% call against 61.0% implied, and Puka Nacua at 1.74 is 51.4% against 57.5%. Rachaad White at 2.20 is 41.7% against 45.5%, Stefon Diggs at 2.85 is 35.0% and priced to the model, and Jayden Daniels at 3.35 is 28.6% against 29.9%. The widest gap of the six is Blake Corum at 2.00: the model has him at 30.6%, nearly twenty points under the price.

The running-back lines are where the model and the books part. Rachaad White over 40.5 rushing yards at 1.86 on bet365 is projected at 65.8 yards on 15.1 carries, 63.4% against 50%, five stars; the plain line version of the same view is a 73% over, a gap big enough to say the model may be missing news, with Ekeler questionable, so the stake stays small. Blake Corum under 11.5 carries at 1.80 is projected at 9.5, 63% against 52%, five stars, an 11-point gap that is also big enough to say the model may be missing news, and the model's read on his 50.5 rushing-yards line is an under as well (35.2% over, 45.2 projected). Elsewhere on the board, the model leans over on Nacua's 93.5 receiving yards (112.4 projected) and Kyren Williams's 2.5 receptions (3.5 projected), and under on Antonio Williams's 41.5 receiving yards (36.7). None of those three carries a star rating on the sheet, so they are leans, not cards. There are no slips listed for this game.

Rachaad White over 40.5 rushing yards — RB, WSH, Sun 6pm UK / 1pm ET — at 1.86 — Projected 65.8 yards on 15.1 carries. A wide gap: check Ekeler's status. Game preview
Blake Corum under 11.5 carries — RB, LAR, Sun 6pm UK / 1pm ET — at 1.80 — Projected 9.5 carries against Kyren Williams's 14.6. A wide gap: the model may be missing news. Game preview

The verdict

The model has the Rams by five and the market by five and a half, and the honest call on the result is that there is no edge to take. What the model does see is two backfields: Washington's White is under-priced and Los Angeles's Corum is over-asked. A quarter of a point on White, half a point on Corum, and nothing on the side, the total or the scorers. The news to watch is whether Ekeler plays and which of the Rams' defensive backs are fit, because the model's 74% edge for Los Angeles against the Washington pass offence rests on that group.

Our Best Bets: the Pro page

Our Best Bets are a Pro page: the week's star-rated singles and parlays, every pick graded in public once the game is final. The ledger stands at 77-58, 15.05 points up at a 9.7% return. The Sunday card goes out on Friday morning.

Put it to work

Best Bets (Pro) Star-rated singles and parlays, every one graded in public: 77-58, +15.05 points, 9.7% ROI.
Rams at Commanders The game page: model, matchups, injuries and odds, then the live score.
Props Tool Every priced prop the model rates for Sunday.
Injuries The Rams secondary and Ekeler are the names to check before kick-off.