NFL Sunday Special - Week 4 — NFL Betting Guide

Published October 3, 2026 by Statz NFL.

The Statz tipster column for the fourth Sunday of 2026/27: a two-from-seven Week 3 owned in full, seven five-star picks from London to Las Vegas, the treble, the quarterback-out caveats, touchdown scorers, four five-star props and the longshot slips.

Week 4, with the receipts from a bad Week 3

Last Sunday's card went two from seven, and it is going in the first paragraph because that is where a five-from-seven week went. The Giants moneyline and the Chargers-Bills under landed; the Ravens won in Rio by three and failed to cover three and a half, the Patriots lost 35-6, two overs died in low-scoring games and the Cardinals-49ers under died in a 66-point one. The treble went with the Patriots. The island previews did better: Denver covered and won outright, the quarter-point Bears lean landed at 2.56 with Tyson Bagent at quarterback, and the Packers minus four and a half lost by three touchdowns, so one from three on the anchors. The Best Bets ledger stands at 48-40 for +9.25 units and a 9% return since 3 September, down from 13.8% a week ago. That is what a bad week does to a small sample, and it is why the staking section exists.

Week 4 has fifteen games left after Cleveland beat Pittsburgh on Thursday, and three of them are on their own: the London game at Tottenham on Sunday at 2:30pm UK time, Sunday night in Carolina and Monday night in New Orleans. Each has its own preview. The quarterback list this week is long: Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, Baker Mayfield and Jaxson Dart are all out, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are questionable, and Justin Jefferson, De'Von Achane and DeVonta Smith are out at the skill positions. The model has priced the replacements in; the market has priced some of them in more than others.

Best bets: seven at five stars

The card leans to underdogs and totals again, and the two the model likes most are both quarterback stories. Washington plus four and a half against the Colts in London is a 55.6% call with Marcus Mariota starting, because the model has this as a one-point game between two bottom-three defences. Tampa Bay plus three at home to Green Bay is a 55.9% call with Jalon Daniels starting for Baker Mayfield, because the model has the Buccaneers winning by a point regardless.

The totals: Jaguars-Bengals under 51.5, where the model has 46; Dolphins-Vikings over 38.5, where the model has 45.7 even with Jefferson and Achane out and which is the biggest totals gap on the board; Chiefs-Raiders under 47.5, where the model has 43.8; and Cardinals-Giants over 44.5 with Jameis Winston throwing for New York. The one favourite on the card is San Francisco minus three against Denver at evens, the model having the 49ers by six and a half.

Commanders +4.5 v the Colts (London) — Spread, IND @ WSH, Sun 2:30pm UK — at 1.98 — Model has Indianapolis by 0.8 with Mariota starting. Two defences allowing 30 a game; the points are the bet, not the winner. Game preview
Buccaneers +3 v the Packers — Spread, GB @ TB, Sun 6pm — at 1.98 — Model has Tampa by a point with Jalon Daniels at quarterback. Take the three, not 2.5. Game preview
Under 51.5, Jaguars at Bengals — Total, JAX @ CIN, Sun 6pm — at 2.02 — Model total 46.4, five points under the line. Jacksonville plus 2.5 at 2.11 is a four-star companion. Game preview
Over 38.5, Dolphins at Vikings — Total, MIA @ MIN, Sun 9:05pm — at 2.00 — Model total 45.7 against the lowest number of the week. Jefferson and Achane are out and the model still has 46. Game preview
Under 47.5, Chiefs at Raiders — Total, KC @ LV, Sun 9:25pm — at 1.98 — Model total 43.8 in a game it has Kansas City winning by three. Game preview
Over 44.5, Cardinals at Giants — Total, ARI @ NYG, Sun 6pm — at 2.06 — Model total 48.7 with Winston starting for Dart. The Giants at +1.5 (2.47 on Polymarket, which has Arizona favoured) is a four-star line-shop. Game preview
49ers -3 v the Broncos — Spread, DEN @ SF, Sun 9:25pm — at 2.00 — Model has San Francisco by 6.6. The moneyline at 1.74 rates four stars. Game preview

The Sunday treble

Commanders plus four and a half at 1.98, Buccaneers plus three at 1.98 and the Dolphins-Vikings over at 2.00. Combined 7.84, a shade over 13/2, and the model's probabilities multiply to 18.7% against 12.8% implied. Two home dogs with replacement quarterbacks and an over the market thinks is mad. One point, and this is the week to remember that last week's treble lost.

Where the model and the market really disagree

The zero-star giants, as questions, because the record says the model is usually the one missing news when the gap passes about eight points. This week most of the gaps are the model having an opinion about a backup quarterback.

Packers at Buccaneers, the total: 39.5 posted, 45.5 projected, a 67.5% over. Over 40.5 at 2.25 rates four stars once calibrated and is worth a half point; the raw number is the model refusing to believe Jalon Daniels makes it a grind.
Dolphins at Vikings, the spread: Minnesota by ten is the market and the model has it a 7.8-point game. Miami plus nine and a half at 2.11 rates four stars; the over is the five-star version of the same opinion.
Cardinals at Giants: Arizona by two and a half at most books, and the model has the Giants by 1.9 with Winston. A 63% call on New York plus the points. Polymarket disagree with the other books and have the Giants as the dog, which is where the 2.47 comes from.
Jaguars at Bengals: the under made the card at five stars and the raw number is 65%, well past the band. Jacksonville plus the points is a 61% call.
Broncos at 49ers: San Francisco by three at DraftKings and the model has them by 6.6, a 62% call. The spread made the card; the moneyline is the four-star cousin.
Titans at Ravens: the total is 42.5 and the model has 45.8 with Baltimore scoring 29. Over 42.5 at 2.02 rates four stars. Lamar Jackson is questionable with a back injury, which is the thing to check before you take it.

Touchdown scorers

The short prices are fades almost across the board: Jonathan Taylor at 1.33 is a 62% call priced at 75%, Christian McCaffrey at 1.50 is 54%, Bijan Robinson at 1.43 is 57%, Chase Brown at 1.57 is 51%, Kenneth Walker at 1.58 is 52%. The model does not think any of them is as likely to score as the book does. Jahmyr Gibbs at 1.30 is the exception, a 78% call and fair, in a game the model has at 50 points.

The value is Bhayshul Tuten again, 2.00 to score in Cincinnati at a 61% model probability, the best scorer price on the board for the second week running (he scored last week at 2.10). Ollie Gordon II at 4.00 is the biggest raw gap, a 49% call with Achane on injured reserve and the Dolphins' backfield his; the price has not caught up with the depth chart. Christian Watson at 2.65 is a 47.5% call and has scored in five straight. Dontayvion Wicks at 3.60 is 39% with DeVonta Smith and Hollywood Brown both out for Philadelphia. Isaac TeSlaa at 5.25 is the Sunday night longshot at 33.5%.

Bhayshul Tuten anytime TD — RB, JAX @ CIN, Sun 6pm — at 2.00 — A 61% call at evens. Scored at 2.10 last week; the price has barely moved. Game preview
Ollie Gordon II anytime TD — RB, MIA @ MIN, Sun 9:05pm — at 4.00 — Achane is on injured reserve and the backfield is Gordon's. A 49% call at 4.00 is the model saying the market has not read the depth chart. Game preview
Christian Watson anytime TD — WR, GB @ TB, Sun 6pm — at 2.65 — Five games, five touchdowns, and a 47.5% call against 38% implied. Game preview
Dontayvion Wicks anytime TD — WR, LAR @ PHI, Sun 6pm — at 3.60 — Philadelphia's lead receiver by default this week with Smith and Brown out. Game preview

Props the model rates

Four five-star props, all near evens at Bet365, and three of them are unders. Christian McCaffrey under 39.5 receiving yards at 2.05 is projected at 31, a 60% under, in a game the model has San Francisco winning on the ground. Jacory Croskey-Merritt under 4.5 receiving yards at 1.90 is projected at 3.4 as Washington's lead back with Rachaad White out: carries, not catches. Marcus Mariota under 25.5 rushing yards at 1.86, projected 21, is the London prop. And Kyle Monangai over 3.5 receiving yards at 1.90, projected 9.7, is the one over, the Bears' back against a Jets defence in a game where Bagent checks down.

Christian McCaffrey under 39.5 receiving yards — RB, DEN @ SF, Sun 9:25pm — at 2.05 — Projected 31. A 6.6-point favourite runs the ball in the second half. Game preview
Jacory Croskey-Merritt under 4.5 receiving yards — RB, IND @ WSH, Sun 2:30pm UK — at 1.90 — Projected 3.4. The lead back with White out, and a 20-carry role rather than a receiving one. Game preview
Kyle Monangai over 3.5 receiving yards — RB, NYJ @ CHI, Sun 6pm — at 1.90 — Projected 9.7. One catch clears it; Bagent threw to his backs all night on Monday. Game preview

Longshots: the published slips

Twenty-six same-game slips are up, and the correlation model's favourites this week are concentrated on one late game. The four best against their prices:

Second Receiver Ceiling, LAC @ SEA, 13.27: Justin Herbert over 195.5 passing yards with Ladd McConkey to score and over 45.5 receiving yards. Model 15.9% against 7.5% implied. 0.25pt; McConkey is questionable with a foot, so check Saturday.
Tight End Day, NYJ @ CHI, 11.59: Geno Smith over 220.5 with Kenyon Sadiq to score and over 37.5 receiving yards. Model 15.8% against 8.6%. 0.25pt, and Sadiq is questionable with a back injury; the Jets' other tight end, Mason Taylor, is already out, which is why the targets are his.
Defensive Battle, LAC @ SEA, 11.97: four unders, Herbert, Darnold, Quentin Johnston and Smith-Njigba. Model 14% against 8.4%. 0.25pt, and the one slip on the board that agrees with a card bet, the Chargers-Seahawks under at four stars.
Second Receiver Ceiling, ARI @ NYG, 50.92: Jameis Winston over 210.5 passing yards with Isaiah Likely to score and over 79.5 receiving yards. Model 10.6% against 2%. 0.15pt, the Winston-throws-a-lot script.

Staking, and the ledger

One point on five stars, half a point on the scorers and the four-star leans named above, the longshot rule on the slips, a point on the treble. About twelve points of exposure. Everything is on the Best Bets ledger at the price quoted, and after a two-from-seven week the results page is the first thing to read, not the last.

Six quarterbacks are either out or questionable and the inactives drop 90 minutes before each kick-off, which for London means about 1pm UK. Check the injury table before the first game, and if Allen or Jackson is downgraded, the Bills and Ravens totals change and so should your bets.

Put it to work

Best Bets The live card, re-rated as the lines move, and the public ledger.
Single Game Parlays All twenty-six published slips, priced by the correlation model.
Injuries Four quarterbacks out, two questionable. Check before you bet.