Every parlay the engine published for Week 3, window by window: the Sunday treble, the spread and totals parlays, the Bold One, the slate parlays and the touchdown accas, with the model's probability against the price and the honest record so far.
How the parlay pages work, in one paragraph
Two pages build cross-game parlays from the model every Tuesday and Wednesday and record them to the ledger before kick-off, legs and prices frozen. NFL Parlays carries the game-market editions for the Sunday windows, a short-price treble, a spread parlay, a totals parlay and a bold one, plus a slate parlay for each kick-off window built from player props; the primetime nights carry the single-game slips instead. Touchdown Parlays carries anytime-scorer accas by window: a short-price backbone, a best-value slip, and one each for backs, receivers and tight ends. Every leg shows the model's probability, and the stake is set by the price: a point up to about 8.0, a quarter to 25, 0.15 to 60, a tenth beyond.
The record, corrected: the cross-game game-market editions are nought from ten since launch, after two Week 2 slips recorded as winners on a reversed handicap line were restated as the losers they were. The touchdown accas are one from 24 for a profit of 0.89pt at declared stakes. The single-game slips, which the Sunday night and Monday night windows draw on, are three from 25 for 11.63pt. That is the whole ledger, and the parlays record is the part that needs the most patience.
Sunday afternoon: the four game-market editions
The Sunday slate this week carries the full set. The Sensible Treble is priced at 4.54, three legs mixing moneylines and spreads from the card the model rates highest, and it is the edition for a reader who wants one slip. The Spread Parlay at 7.22 is three legs against the spread, the Totals Parlay at 8.69 is three over-unders, and The Bold One at 22.73 is the longest slip, on the longshot stake rule of a quarter point. The legs of all four are on the page for members; the Sunday Special column carries the model's reasoning on the sides they are built from, and the best of those sides this week are the Ravens minus three and a half in Rio, the Giants over Tennessee, the Patriots plus the points in Jacksonville and the Bills-Chargers under.
A word on the record before the prices seduce anyone. Three independent legs at 55% each land together about one time in six, which is roughly what a 7/1 spread parlay pays, so a run of ten losers at these prices is inside normal variance for a slip that is genuinely well priced. It is also exactly what a badly priced slip looks like. The model's probability is on every card so you can decide which you are looking at; the ten losses are on the ledger so you know what you are being asked to believe.
- Sensible Treble, Sunday afternoon — Three legs, moneylines and spreads — at 4.54 — The core edition. Legs on the page.
- Spread Parlay, Sunday afternoon — Three legs against the spread — at 7.22 — The purest showcase of the model's side-picking.
- Totals Parlay, Sunday afternoon — Three over-unders — at 8.69 — Overs and unders mix freely; the projection decides each side.
- The Bold One, Sunday afternoon — The longest edition — at 22.73 — On the longshot stake rule, because it is a declared longshot.
The slate parlays and the primetime windows
Two slate parlays, built from player props across a window: the Sunday early games at 26.85 for 0.15pt, the late games at 12.16 for a quarter. On Thursday night the window carries the two same-game slips from the SGP page, Throwing Festival at 23.76 and the Blowup Total at 141, both scripts for a game the model has three points over the market's total. Sunday night is a Primetime Parlay on Rams at Broncos at 6.56, the game's four likeliest props at 60% to 70% each. Monday night has the same shape on Eagles at Bears at 4.80, plus the Second Receiver Ceiling at 43.85 that pairs Jalen Hurts over 274.5 with Makai Lemon to score.
The primetime parlays are the interesting new product on the page: four props the model rates well above a coin flip, priced as a short acca rather than a longshot. Last week's on Colts at Chiefs lost on one leg of four, which is what a 16% slip does most weeks. They are quarter-point slips and they should be treated as such.
The touchdown accas
Eleven touchdown accas are up across the three Sunday windows. The two with open legs on the early-games window tell you the shape. Short Prices at 4.56 is Josh Allen, Jahmyr Gibbs and Chase Brown to score, three players the model has at 55%, 79% and 56%, and it makes the acca 24.3% against 21.9% implied, a small real edge at a short price and a full point. Best Value at 85.05 is Harold Fannin Jr., Mike Gesicki and Hunter Henry, three tight ends at 3.60 to 5.25 that the model rates at 24% to 32% each; the acca is 2.3% against 1.2% implied, double the implied chance and still a slip that loses 49 weeks in 50. A tenth of a point.
The afternoon and late windows carry Short Prices at 3.85, Best Value at 64.60 and 61.37, the Receivers accas at 96.90 and 43.61, and the Tight Ends at 38.56, with the Running Backs edition for the early games at 24.63. Legs for members on the page. The record on this surface is one winner from 24, and that single winner returned 5.54pt on 4.65pt staked across all 24, which is the arithmetic of touchdown accas in a sentence: one lands, and it has to pay for the rest.
- Short Prices, Sunday early games — Josh Allen + Jahmyr Gibbs + Chase Brown, anytime TD — at 4.56 — Three scorers the model has at 55%, 79% and 56%. The backbone edition.
- Best Value, Sunday early games — Harold Fannin Jr. + Mike Gesicki + Hunter Henry, anytime TD — at 85.05 — Three tight ends at double their implied chance. A lottery ticket the model likes is still a lottery ticket.
What to actually do with this
If you want one slip, the Sensible Treble. If you want the parlays as a set, the four Sunday editions are 3.25pt of exposure and the touchdown Short Prices is a fifth point; everything else on the two pages is longshot money and should be staked like it. The single-game slips on the SGP page are where the record has been made so far, and they have their own round-up this week. Every slip on every page is recorded before kick-off, so what you see on Sunday morning is what was published on Wednesday.
Put it to work
- NFL Parlays The week by window: every edition with the model's probability on each leg.
- Touchdown Parlays The anytime-scorer accas by window, and the record.