The Statz tipster column for the third Sunday of 2026/27: seven five-star best bets led by the Ravens in Rio, the treble, the games the model disagrees with the market on, touchdown scorers, three five-star props and the longshot slips.
Week 3, with the receipts from Week 2
Last Sunday's card went five from seven: the Titans, the Saints-Ravens under, the Raiders-Chargers under, the Browns-Buccaneers under and Denver all landed, the Commanders and Steelers did not, and the treble died with Washington. The island previews went three from three on the game-line anchors (Bills moneyline, Colts plus the points, Rams minus the points) and nought from three on the totals. The one that mattered most was on the Single Game Parlays page: the Second Receiver Ceiling slip on Giants at Rams, published five days before kick-off at 57.02, landed on Stafford's 327 yards and two Davante Adams touchdowns. It paid 8.55pt on a 0.15pt stake and it is on the ledger with its legs frozen.
The honest half of the receipts: we found a bug in our own odds feed last week. One vendor's spread lines arrived with the favourite's handicap reversed, two parlay slips were recorded as winners on lines that did not exist, and both have been restated as losers; the cross-game parlays record now reads nought from ten. The Week 2 column carried a "Denver middle" built on the same error and has a correction on it. The Best Bets ledger stands at 44-34 for +12.61 units and a 13.8% return since 3 September, and it is the corrected number.
Best bets: seven at five stars
The strongest Sunday card the model has produced this season, and it has one game the rest of the league is not playing in: Ravens at Cowboys at the Maracanã in Rio, which the model makes a six-point Baltimore win in a 51-point game. Baltimore minus three and a half at 2.11 is the top-rated pick on the whole board, and the moneyline at 1.63 rates four stars behind it.
The rest is a mix. Two Patriots-Jaguars plays, the points and the over, in a game the model has as a coin flip with 48 points in it. The Giants at home to Tennessee as a five-star favourite both on the spread and the moneyline, which is the model liking a home side by four and a half against a two-and-a-half point market. The Bills-Chargers under, where the model has Buffalo winning by 12 in a 47-point game and the market has 50. The Chiefs-Dolphins over, and the Cardinals-49ers under. Every one of them is inside the band the record supports.
- Ravens -3.5 v the Cowboys (Rio) — Spread, BAL @ DAL, Sun 9:25pm — at 2.11 — Model score 29-23 Baltimore. The Ravens' run game against a Dallas front allowing 174 rushing yards a game is a 91% edge.
- Patriots +2.5 at the Jaguars — Spread, NE @ JAX, Sun 6pm — at 2.20 — Model has Jacksonville by 0.8. A coin flip with a field goal of cushion at plus money.
- Over 44.5, Patriots at Jaguars — Total, NE @ JAX, Sun 6pm — at 1.94 — Model total 47.9. Two offences the model has at 24 and 23.
- Giants to beat the Titans — Moneyline, TEN @ NYG, Sun 6pm — at 1.77 — Model score 25-21 New York. The spread at -2.5 (2.11 on Kalshi) is the same opinion with more juice and the same five stars.
- Under 49.5, Chargers at Bills — Total, LAC @ BUF, Sun 6pm — at 2.06 — Model total 46.7 with Buffalo winning by 12. A blowout that stops scoring is still an under.
- Over 46.5, Chiefs at Dolphins — Total, KC @ MIA, Sun 6pm — at 2.02 — Model total 48.3. Kansas City projected at 27 and Miami at 21 through De'Von Achane.
- Under 47.5, Cardinals at 49ers — Total, ARI @ SF, Sun 9:05pm — at 2.06 — Model total 45.5 with San Francisco by nine. The 49ers minus 7.5 at 1.90 is a four-star companion.
The Sunday treble
Patriots plus two and a half at 2.20, Giants moneyline at 1.77 and the Cardinals-49ers under at 2.06. Combined 8.02, about 7/1, and the model's probabilities multiply to 19.5% against the 12.5% the price implies. Three five-star legs on three different questions: a dog, a home favourite and a total. One point.
Where the model and the market really disagree
The zero-star giants, framed as questions. Past about eight points of probability the record says the model is usually the one missing the news, and this week the news is mostly at quarterback.
- Eagles at Bears (Monday night): the market has Philadelphia by four and a half; the model has Chicago by 1.8 and a 47-point total against 41.5. Both are 65% calls and both rate zero, and the reason is Caleb Williams, listed doubtful with a hamstring. The model's Bears are being quarterbacked by Tyson Bagent. See the preview.
- Seahawks at Commanders: Seattle by seven is the market; the model has Washington by two at home, a 64% call on the Commanders plus the points. Jayden Daniels is doubtful with an elbow and the model has Marcus Mariota under centre, so this is the model liking Mariota more than the market does. Treat with care.
- Chiefs at Dolphins, the spread: Kansas City by 11.5 is the market and the model has it a 6.5-point game. Miami plus the points is a 64% call. The over made the card; the points did not.
- Bengals at Steelers: Pittsburgh by three and a half at home; the model has it a 1.8-point Steelers win, a 65% call on the Steelers plus the points. Joe Burrow is questionable with a back injury, which cuts both ways.
- Texans at Colts: Indianapolis plus two and a half at home is a 61% call. The over 43.5 at 2.11 rates four stars and made the card's second tier; the points did not.
- Chargers at Bills, the spread: Buffalo by seven is the market and the model has them by 12, a 64% call. The under is the calibrated version of the same opinion.
Touchdown scorers
The short prices are mostly fades this week: Kenneth Walker at 1.38 in Miami is a 51% model call priced at 72%, Christian McCaffrey at 1.32 is 58% priced at 76%, James Cook at 1.43 and Amon-Ra St. Brown at 1.64 are both shaded well under their prices. Jahmyr Gibbs at 1.34 is the one short price the model rates fairly, at 79%. The value is in the middle again.
Bhayshul Tuten at 2.10 is a 60% call against 48% implied, the best scorer price of the day, in the game the model has closest. Cam Skattebo at 2.15 is 55%, Tee Higgins at 2.60 is 49% against 38%, and Christian Watson at 2.30 is 48% on Thursday night. Longer: Isaac TeSlaa at 4.75 (38%), Isaiah Likely at 3.90 (37%) and Darren Waller at 5.00 (30%). Tory Horton is 9.00 to score at Washington with the model at 42%, and for the second week running that gap is the model not knowing something. Leave it.
- Bhayshul Tuten anytime TD — RB, NE @ JAX, Sun 6pm — at 2.10 — The best scorer price on the board. Jacksonville's lead back in a 48-point projection.
- Cam Skattebo anytime TD — RB, TEN @ NYG, Sun 6pm — at 2.15 — A 55% call in a game the model has the Giants winning by four and a half. Pairs with the Giants moneyline.
- Tee Higgins anytime TD — WR, CIN @ PIT, Sun 6pm — at 2.60 — Also the ceiling leg of the Throwing Festival slip. Check Burrow's back on Saturday first.
- Isaac TeSlaa anytime TD — WR, NYJ @ DET, Sun 6pm — at 4.75 — Detroit projected at 27 points and the third receiver priced like a fifth.
Props the model rates
Three five-star props, all at Bet365 and all near evens. DJ Moore, now a Bills receiver, under 3.5 receptions at 2.00: projected 3.4 catches in a game the model has Buffalo winning easily on the ground, a 60% under. Christian Watson over 4.5 receptions at 2.10 on Thursday: projected 5.3 as Green Bay's lead target with Josh Jacobs out and the run game ranked last after two weeks, a 57% over. And Ashton Jeanty under 17.5 carries at 2.00 in New Orleans: projected 16.8, a 60% under, in a game the model has the Raiders trailing.
- Christian Watson over 4.5 receptions — WR, ATL @ GB, Thu 8:15pm ET — at 2.10 — Projected 5.3. The Packers cannot run and Jacobs is out; the targets go to Watson.
- DJ Moore under 3.5 receptions — WR, LAC @ BUF, Sun 6pm — at 2.00 — Projected 3.4. Buffalo by 12 is a game the Bills finish on the ground.
- Ashton Jeanty under 17.5 carries — RB, LV @ NO, Sun 9:25pm — at 2.00 — Projected 16.8 carries with the Raiders trailing by three. Volume, not talent.
Longshots: the published slips
Seventeen same-game slips are up for the week. The four the correlation model likes most against their prices are all Sunday, and three of them are on one game:
- Tight End Day, ARI @ SF, 15.4: Trey McBride to score, over 66.5 receiving yards and over 6.5 receptions, with Jacoby Brissett over 227.5 passing yards. Model 18.8% against 6.5% implied, naive 8.3%. 0.25pt, and the strongest edge ratio on the board.
- One Passing Game, ARI @ SF, 18.34: Deebo Samuel to score and over 39.5 receiving yards, George Kittle over 40.5, Brock Purdy over 241.5. Model 15.7% against 5.5%. 0.25pt. Do not play it alongside the Cardinals-49ers under; it is the over's script.
- Second Receiver Ceiling, SEA @ WSH, 14.7: Marcus Mariota over 175.5 passing yards with Stefon Diggs to score and over 37.5 receiving yards. Model 14.8% against 6.8%. 0.25pt, contingent on Daniels sitting.
- Throwing Festival, CIN @ PIT, 57.45: Aaron Rodgers over 220.5, Tee Higgins to score and over 59.5 receiving yards, Joe Burrow over 324.5. Model 9.2% against 1.7%. 0.15pt, and only if Burrow is cleared.
Staking, and the ledger
One point on five stars, half a point on the scorers, the longshot rule on the slips, a point on the treble. Seven singles, a treble, four scorers, three props and four slips is about 13 points of exposure, the most this column has put out, because the card is the strongest of the season. Everything is on the Best Bets ledger at the price quoted here, and the results page will show how it went.
Quarterback news decides this week more than most: Daniels, Williams, Burrow and Mahomes (listed possible) are all on reports. Check the injury table on Saturday evening, and if a line has moved a full point past the number quoted here, let the bet go. A 13.8% return over three weeks is a good start and a small sample; bet with money you can lose.
Put it to work
- Best Bets The live card, re-rated as the lines move, and the public ledger.
- Single Game Parlays All seventeen published slips, priced by the correlation model.
- Injuries Four quarterbacks on reports: check before you bet.