Every same-game slip the engine published for Week 3, game by game: the three Cardinals-49ers scripts the model rates best, the Mariota-Diggs play in Washington, the Rio slips, the Lions throwing festivals and the lottery tickets, each with the model's joint probability against the price.
After the 55/1
The Single Game Parlays page had its week last week: the Second Receiver Ceiling on Giants at Rams, published five days early at 57.02, landed on Stafford's 327 yards and two Davante Adams touchdowns and returned 8.55pt on a 0.15pt stake. The record on the surface is three winners from 25 slips, 4.0pt staked and 15.63pt returned. Twenty-two lost. That sentence goes in every one of these round-ups, because a page of longshots that stops saying it is a page you should stop reading.
Seventeen slips are up for Week 3 across nine games. Each is a script about one game, priced by the correlation model rather than by multiplying the legs, and the number to read on every card is the gap between the model's joint probability and the price's implied one. Here they are, ranked by that gap, with the stake rule attached: a quarter point up to 25.0, 0.15 to 60.0, a tenth beyond.
The three the model likes most are all in one game
Cardinals at 49ers, Sunday 9:05pm UK, is where the correlation model has found the most this week, and all three slips are versions of the same claim: Arizona throw a lot, mostly to Trey McBride, in a game San Francisco win comfortably. Tight End Day at 15.40 is McBride to score, over 66.5 receiving yards and over 6.5 receptions with Jacoby Brissett over 227.5 passing yards; the model makes it 18.8% against 6.5% implied, the strongest edge ratio on the board. Second Receiver Ceiling at 12.28 swaps McBride for Michael Wilson to score and over 45.5 yards, 17% against 8.1%. And One Passing Game at 18.34 is the 49ers' side of it: Deebo Samuel to score and over 39.5, Kittle over 40.5, Purdy over 241.5, 15.7% against 5.5%.
A quarter point on each is the rule, and they are three draws from the same distribution, so if you play all three you are playing one opinion three times. Note also that the Sunday Special carries the Cardinals-49ers under at five stars, and the One Passing Game slip is the over's script; the two McBride slips are not, because Arizona throwing 40 times in a loss is exactly what an under looks like.
- Tight End Day, ARI @ SF — McBride TD + o66.5 rec yds + o6.5 rec, Brissett o227.5 — at 15.40 — The best edge ratio of the week. McBride at 20 points a game on the season rate.
- Second Receiver Ceiling, ARI @ SF — Wilson TD + o45.5 rec yds, Brissett o227.5 — at 12.28 — The same script one rung down the target tree.
- One Passing Game, ARI @ SF — Deebo TD + o39.5, Kittle o40.5, Purdy o241.5 — at 18.34 — The 49ers' half of the game. The over's script; do not pair with the under.
The quarter-point slips elsewhere
Second Receiver Ceiling, Seahawks at Commanders, 14.70: Marcus Mariota over 175.5 passing yards with Stefon Diggs to score and over 37.5 receiving yards. The model makes it 14.8% against 6.8%, and the whole thing is contingent on Jayden Daniels, listed doubtful with an elbow, actually sitting. If he plays, the Mariota leg is void at best and the slip should not be played. Check Saturday.
Second Receiver Ceiling, Ravens at Cowboys in Rio, 41.01: Dak Prescott over 324.5 passing yards with Ryan Flournoy to score and over 26.5 receiving yards. Model 9.9% against 2.4%, four times the implied chance, and it is the Cowboys-chase script for a game the model has Baltimore winning by six. 0.15pt, and it sits happily next to the Ravens minus three and a half. The other Rio slip, Chase Script at 118, adds George Pickens over 109.5 and Derrick Henry over 77.5 for 4.6% against 0.8%; a tenth.
Throwing Festival, Bengals at Steelers, 57.45: Rodgers over 220.5, Tee Higgins to score and over 59.5, Burrow over 324.5. Model 9.2% against 1.7%, five times implied, and contingent on Burrow's back. 0.15pt if he is cleared, nothing if he is not.
- Second Receiver Ceiling, SEA @ WSH — Mariota o175.5 pass yds + Diggs TD + Diggs o37.5 — at 14.70 — Only if Daniels is ruled out. The slip is built on Mariota starting.
- Second Receiver Ceiling, BAL @ DAL — Prescott o324.5 + Flournoy TD + Flournoy o26.5 — at 41.01 — The Cowboys chasing in Rio. Pairs with the Ravens spread rather than fighting it.
- Throwing Festival, CIN @ PIT — Rodgers o220.5 + Higgins TD + Higgins o59.5 + Burrow o324.5 — at 57.45 — Five times the implied chance, and it needs Burrow's back to pass a Saturday check.
The Lions, the Packers and the lottery tickets
Jets at Lions carries five slips, all built on Detroit throwing: One Passing Game at 66.83 (St. Brown over 78.5, LaPorta to score and over 59.5, Goff over 324.5; 8.6% against 1.5%), Tight End Day at 67.11 (LaPorta three ways with Goff over 299.5; 8.1% against 1.5%), Chase Script at 82.21 (Geno Smith and Garrett Wilson overs with Gibbs to score and over 149.5 rushing yards; 6.5% against 1.2%), Second Receiver Ceiling at 86.70 (Adonai Mitchell for the Jets; 6.6% against 1.2%) and Throwing Festival at 91.35 (5.4% against 1.1%). Every one is a tenth of a point, every one is priced at four to six times its implied chance, and if you only take one, the LaPorta Tight End Day is the model's pick.
Thursday night has two on Falcons at Packers, Throwing Festival at 23.76 (6% against 4.2%, a quarter) and Blowup Total at 141 (2.7% against 0.7%, a tenth), both scripts for a game the model has three points over the total. Patriots at Jaguars carries Second Receiver Ceiling on Romeo Doubs at 67.44 and Tight End Day on Hunter Henry at 69.89, both around 6% against 1.5%. Monday night has Second Receiver Ceiling on Eagles at Bears at 43.85, Hurts over 274.5 with Makai Lemon to score, 7.4% against 2.3%. The Thursday and Monday nights each also carry a Primetime Parlay, the four likeliest props in the game as a short acca, at 6.56 for Rams at Broncos and 4.80 for Eagles at Bears.
How to play the page
Seventeen slips at the declared stakes is about 2.6pt of exposure, and the expected return on the model's numbers is comfortably positive; the expected experience is fourteen or fifteen losers and a weekend spent waiting for one of the others. That is the product. Take the three Arizona slips as one opinion, take the two contingent slips only after the Saturday injury report, and take the tenth-of-a-point slips as what they are. Every card carries the naive product next to the model's joint probability, so the correlation doing the work is visible before you place it.
Put it to work
- Single Game Parlays All seventeen slips with their receipts, the record, and last week's 55/1 winner card.
- Injuries Daniels and Burrow decide two of the quarter-point slips.