When was NFL Week 1 of the 2026 season?

Week 1 ran from Wednesday 9 September, the Patriots at the Seahawks, to Monday 14 September, the Broncos at the Chiefs: 16 games.

Which NFL teams had a bye in Week 1?

None: all 32 teams played in Week 1.

Who were the biggest favourites in NFL Week 1?

The Jaguars by 8.5 against the Browns (won 34-10), the Chargers by 8.5 against the Cardinals (lost 26-14) and the Lions by 7 against the Saints (won 31-30).

Which NFL Week 1 game had the highest total?

The Buccaneers at the Bengals, at 50.5 points; 60 points were scored.

Which team scored the most points in NFL Week 1?

The Bears, 59 against the Panthers.

What was the biggest win of NFL Week 1?

The Jaguars beat the Browns 34-10, by 24 points.

What is the Statz NFL Best Bets record this season?

72-52, +18.2 units at a 12.7% return, every pick graded once its game is final.

NFL Sunday Special - Week 1 — NFL Betting Guide

Published September 7, 2026 by Statz NFL.

The Statz tipster column for the first Sunday of 2026/27: the model's star-rated best bets, the games it disagrees with the market on, touchdown scorers, props and the longshot slips.

Week 1, and the receipts start now

Twelve games on Sunday 13 September, eight of them at 6pm UK time and four at 9:25pm, and the model has had all summer to think about them. Here is how this column works every week: the game lines are shopped across eight books, the props are priced at Bet365, and every selection carries the model's probability next to the market's, with a star rating. Three stars and up is a bet. Zero stars with a huge edge is the model shouting about something the market knows and it does not, and I say so rather than sell it to you.

Every pick below is logged at the published price on the Best Bets ledger and settled in the open. That is the deal. Week 1 is also the week the market knows least, which is why the model has more to say this Sunday than it will in November. Prices were correct on Monday morning and will move; check the slip before you place it.

The four island games, the Wednesday-night opener in Seattle, Thursday night in Melbourne, Sunday night at MetLife and Monday night at Arrowhead, each get their own preview. This column is the Sunday afternoon.

Best bets: the star-rated Sunday card

Six selections the model rates at three stars or better at the best available price. The Steelers are the headline: the model makes Pittsburgh a 6.7-point better side than Atlanta, sees them winning 69 times in 100, and the best moneyline still prices them at 62.5%. That is the only pick on the slate that clears three and a half stars.

Behind it, two home favourites the model thinks are underpriced by a couple of points each, Minnesota against Green Bay and the Raiders against Miami, and a road team it simply prefers: the Bills at Houston, where the model has Buffalo by two and the market has the Texans by a point and a half. Take the moneyline at evens if your book has it; the point and a half at 1.87 is the safer shape.

The two dogs on the card are the sort the model backs every year. Cleveland getting eight and a half in Jacksonville is a model that projects a six-point Jaguars win, and Washington getting five and a half in Philadelphia is a model that has the Eagles by four. Neither is a pick to win the game. Both are the number being half a touchdown too generous.

Steelers to beat the Falcons — Moneyline, ATL @ PIT, Sun 6pm — at 1.60 — Model score 25-20 Pittsburgh. The strongest pick of the week and the anchor of the Sunday treble. Game preview
Bills +1.5 at the Texans — Spread, BUF @ HOU, Sun 6pm — at 1.87 — Model has Buffalo by two in a 42-point game. The moneyline at 2.02 is the same opinion with more juice and 3.1 stars. Game preview
Vikings to beat the Packers — Moneyline, GB @ MIN, Sun 9:25pm — at 1.90 — Model score 24-21 Minnesota. The Under 46.5 in the same game carries 3.2 stars if you want the pair. Game preview
Browns +8.5 at the Jaguars — Spread, CLE @ JAX, Sun 6pm — at 1.96 — Model has Jacksonville by six in a 38-point slog. The number, not the team. Game preview
Commanders +5.5 at the Eagles — Spread, WSH @ PHI, Sun 9:25pm — at 1.98 — Model has Philadelphia by four, 24-20. Half a touchdown of cushion on a divisional game. Game preview
Raiders -3.5 v the Dolphins — Spread, MIA @ LV, Sun 9:25pm — at 2.06 — Model has Las Vegas by 4.7. The thinnest of the six; the plus-money price is what earns it the card. Game preview

The Sunday treble

Three moneylines from the card, all favourites or near enough: Steelers at 1.60, Vikings at 1.90 and Bills at 2.02. The combined price is a shade over 6.1, roughly 5/1, and the model's probabilities multiply to about 19%, against the 16% the price implies. That is a treble with genuine value in every leg rather than a treble built to hit a number, and it is the one I would put a unit on. If you want the shape of it in your own hands, the Acca Builder prices the same legs at the best synced book.

Where the model and the market really disagree

This is the section the honesty contract exists for. The model has some enormous disagreements with the Sunday lines, and every one of them rates zero stars. So read these as the questions to ask before you bet, not as bets.

Buccaneers at Bengals: the market has Cincinnati by three and a half and a 50.5 total. The model has it 24-23 Cincinnati and a 46.5 total. Tampa +3.5 and the under both clear 59% for the model, which is the loudest it gets on any Sunday spread.
Dolphins at Raiders: the model total is 48.3 against a posted 40.5. That is eight points, the biggest totals gap of the week, and the over prices at 2.02. Something is priced into that 40.5 that the model cannot see. Find out what before you touch it.
Cardinals at Chargers: Los Angeles by nine and a half is the biggest Sunday spread and the model has it as a four-point game, 27-21. Arizona +9.5 is a 66% call for the model and the moneyline at 5.41 is its idea of a lottery ticket. The over 47.5 at 2.06 is the three-star version.
Jets at Titans: market Tennessee by 1.5, model New York by 2.8 with a 42-point total against a posted 39.5. Both the Jets and the over are 61% calls, and both rate zero.
Falcons at Steelers: the model total is 46.7 against a 41.5 line. Over 41.5 is a 70% call. The moneyline made the card; the over did not.
Bears at Panthers and Saints at Lions: Carolina +2.5 and New Orleans +6.5 are both 56-58% calls with the under attached. Home dogs and unders are the model's Week 1 personality, and it is worth knowing that before you back it.

Touchdown scorers

Anytime touchdown prices are compared with the raw implied probability at Bet365 and then star-rated the same way as everything else. Three make the playable tier on Sunday, and I have added the running backs the model projects to score most often, because a 1.66 price on a back the model has scoring in four games out of five is still a bet.

Tee Higgins anytime TD — WR, TB @ CIN, Sun 6pm — at 2.15 — 0.74 projected touchdowns in a game the model makes a 47-point shootout. Second in the Bengals target tree behind Chase, and the price still says coin flip. Game preview
Josh Allen anytime TD — QB, BUF @ HOU, Sun 6pm — at 2.25 — 0.72 projected touchdowns, most of them on his own legs near the goal line. Pairs with the Bills lean. Game preview
Zay Flowers anytime TD — WR, BAL @ IND, Sun 6pm — at 2.70 — Baltimore projects 25 points; Flowers is the lead target at 83.6 projected receiving yards. The best price on the card for a WR1. Game preview
Chase Brown anytime TD — RB, TB @ CIN, Sun 6pm — at 1.66 — The model has Brown scoring in 82 games out of 100. Short, but a short price on a lead back in a 47-point game is what short prices are for. Game preview
Chris Olave anytime TD — WR, NO @ DET, Sun 6pm — at 2.65 — A 61% model call at 2.65 is the biggest raw gap on the Sunday scorer board. The model likes the Saints to keep this closer than seven; Olave is how they do it. Game preview
Brock Bowers anytime TD — TE, MIA @ LV, Sun 9:25pm — at 2.70 — The model projects 25 Raiders points against a 40.5 total. If it is right about the game, it is right about the tight end. Game preview

Props the model rates

The prop picks are ranked by the same star rating, and Week 1 lines are soft in both directions. Two rushing overs on quarterbacks lead the playable tier: Jordan Love over 7.5 rushing yards at 1.86 and Caleb Williams over 20.5 at 1.90, both 56-58% calls. Brenton Strange over 33.5 receiving yards for Jacksonville at 1.86 is the top-rated receiving prop, with the model at 38.6. Garrett Wilson over 54.5 receiving yards (projected 63.9) and DK Metcalf over 46.5 (projected 53.4) are the receiver overs, and Jayden Daniels under 199.5 passing yards is the one under I like, with the model at 187.

Two more from the builder board that the star rating has not yet caught up with: Derrick Henry over 79.5 rushing yards in Indianapolis, where the model projects 118 and a 70% clearance, and Aaron Jones over 31.5 rushing yards for Minnesota, projected 61. Both are the model backing a lead back against a line set for a committee. They are leans until the ledger says otherwise.

Longshots: the published slips

The Single Game Parlays page builds themed same-game slips and prices them with the model. Three from Sunday stand out.

Throwing Festival, TB @ CIN, 28/1: Baker Mayfield over 229.5 passing yards, Joe Burrow over 274.5, Tee Higgins to score and over 60.5 receiving yards, Cade Otton over 28.5. Five legs, one game state. Model 15.7%, implied by the price 3.6%. 0.15pt.
Tight End Day, BAL @ IND, 10/1: Mark Andrews to score and over 31.5 receiving yards with Lamar Jackson over 222.5 passing yards. The model makes it 19%, nearly double the 9% implied. 0.25pt.
Chase Script, CLE @ JAX, 54/1: Jacksonville lead, Deshaun Watson throws to catch up (over 175.5 passing yards), Jerry Jeudy rides the volume (to score and over 32.5 receiving yards) and Chris Rodriguez Jr. gets the goal-line carry. Model 8.3% against 1.8% implied. 0.15pt, and a proper longshot.
For the lottery ticket: Blowup Total, NYJ @ TEN, at 100/1 with both quarterbacks over their passing lines and two Jets scorers. Model 2.7% against 1% implied, 0.1pt, and I would not put a penny more on it.

Staking, and the ledger

Six single bets, a treble, three scorer plays and three slips is a full Sunday, and it is also about seven points of exposure, which is what a first week should be. The model tracks the closing line; it does not beat it by much. What it does is find the six or seven places each week where the price is wrong by a point or two, and that is where the season is won.

Everything above is on the Best Bets ledger at the price quoted here, and the track record page will show you how it went, including the bits that did not. Bet with money you can lose, and check the injury report on Saturday: a late scratch changes a spread faster than any model can.

Put it to work

Best Bets The live card, re-rated as the lines move, and the public ledger.
Player Props Every projected line with floor and ceiling.

NFL Sunday Special - Week 1