NFL Sunday Special - Week 5 — NFL Betting Guide

Published October 8, 2026 by Statz NFL.

The Statz tipster column for the fifth Sunday of 2026/27: a three-from-seven Week 4 with a push, three parlay winners in one afternoon, three five-star sides from Seattle to Atlanta, the treble, five quarterbacks out or in doubt, touchdown scorers, the five-star props and the longshot slips.

Week 5, with the receipts from Week 4

Last Sunday's card went three from seven with a push, and the parlays page had the week of its life. The receipts first. The 49ers minus three landed 24-14, the Cardinals-Giants over landed in a 60-point game and the Jaguars-Bengals under landed at 39. The Commanders plus four and a half lost 30-13 in London, the Dolphins-Vikings over died at 25, the Chiefs-Raiders under died at 57, and the Buccaneers plus three pushed on a 17-14 loss. The treble lost with Washington. On the islands, Carolina plus three and a half landed 32-26 on Sunday night and the Falcons-Saints under was buried in a 69-point Monday. Three from seven on the Sunday card, one from two on the islands, and the ledger is 53-44 for the season, 9.61 points up at an 8.5% return on 112.6 staked.

The parlays are the receipt of the week. The Short-Price Double at 3.01, the Sensible Treble at 6.20 and the Spread Parlay at 8.33 all landed on Sunday afternoon, three winners from one window, and the NFL Parlays record went from one winner in 16 to five in 23, 14.41 points up. The Tight Ends touchdown acca landed at 5.06 as well. One afternoon does not make a surface, but it is the afternoon we said the editions were built for. Week 5 has fifteen games, four of them on their own: Thursday night in Dallas, London at 2:30pm UK on Sunday, Sunday night in Atlanta, Monday night in Los Angeles. Each has its own preview. The Best Bets card for the Sunday games goes out on Friday morning; what follows is the model's board as of Thursday, and the card will be drawn from it.

Best bets: three at five stars

Three sides on the acca board are rated five stars this week, and two of them are road teams the model has winning outright. The Ravens plus three and a half at 1.90 on Polymarket is a 61.1% model call against 52.6% implied: Baltimore have the best yards per play in the league, the model has them winning by three in Atlanta, and the market gives them three and a half. Lamar Jackson is questionable with an ankle, and the bet depends on him; the preview has the whole case. The 49ers plus two and a half at 2.02 on DraftKings is a 57.2% call against 47.4%: San Francisco are 4-0 with the second-ranked offence and the third-ranked defence, the model has them winning in Seattle by nearly three, and the market has them as underdogs. The Cardinals plus five and a half at 2.02 on Kalshi is a 55.7% call against 49.5%: Detroit allow 31.8 points a game, 31st in the league, and the model has this one a 27-26 game.

A point on each. The four-stars are the leans: Tampa Bay plus six and a half at 2.41 on Thursday (51.6% against 41.5%), the Dolphins plus six and a half at 2.06 on Kalshi (53.4% against 48.5%), the Patriots minus four and a half at 2.15 (51.9% against 46.5%) or to win at 1.60 (66.2% against 62.5%), the Jets minus two and a half at 2.06 (52.4% against 48.5%) or to win at 1.83, the Colts plus two and a half at 2.06 on Kalshi (51.6%), the Giants plus three and a half at 2.06 (51.9%), the Packers plus one and a half at 2.27 (52.4% against 44.1%) or to win at 2.20 on Kalshi (51% against 45%), and the Ravens-Falcons over 43.5 at 1.94 on Kalshi (55.8% against 51.5%). Half a point on each of those you take; the Patriots and the Packers are the two I would not leave out.

Ravens +3.5 v the Falcons — Spread, BAL @ ATL, Sunday night — at 1.90 — The model has Baltimore winning by three. Conditional on Jackson's ankle; the Friday report decides. Game preview
49ers +2.5 v the Seahawks — Spread, SF @ SEA, Sun 9:25pm UK / 4:25pm ET — at 2.02 — A 4-0 team with the second-ranked offence and third-ranked defence, as an underdog. Model has them by 2.7. Game preview
Cardinals +5.5 v the Lions — Spread, DET @ ARI, Sun 9:25pm UK / 4:25pm ET — at 2.02 — Detroit allow 31.8 a game. The model has it 27-26; the market gives five and a half. Game preview
Patriots to win v the Raiders — Moneyline, LV @ NE, Sun 6pm UK / 1pm ET — at 1.60 — Model has New England by seven. The sixth-ranked defence against a Raiders run game ranked 24th. Game preview
Packers +1.5 v the Bears — Spread, CHI @ GB, Sun 6pm UK / 1pm ET — at 2.27 — Caleb Williams is out and Tyson Bagent starts. The model has Green Bay by two at home. Game preview
Over 43.5, Ravens at Falcons — Total, BAL @ ATL, Sunday night — at 1.94 — Model total 49.5 against a market that remembers two unders in the series. Game preview

The Sunday treble

The Sensible Treble on the NFL Parlays page is the Jaguars to beat the Eagles at 1.36, the 49ers plus two and a half at 2.15 and the Patriots to beat the Raiders at 1.58, for 4.62. The model has it at 27% against 21.6% implied, and it is a point. Last week's treble lost with the Commanders; the week before, the Sensible Treble landed at 6.20. The three legs are the three sides the model is most sure of on Sunday: Jacksonville by eight, San Francisco by three, New England by seven.

The Sunday treble — Jaguars ML · 49ers +2.5 · Patriots ML — at 4.62 — The three sides the model is surest of, at a price that pays for one of them going wrong. Game preview

Where the model and the market really disagree

The widest gaps on the main lines this week, in points. Buccaneers at Cowboys: the market has Dallas by eight and a half, the model by two and a half, six points, and Tampa Bay plus eight and a half is a 67% model call at the main line. Ravens at Falcons: the market has Atlanta by three and a half, the model has Baltimore by three and a half, seven points of disagreement, with the model's raw number on the Ravens at 69.5% and on the over at 67.5%. 49ers at Seahawks: Seattle by three in the market, San Francisco by two and a half in the model, five and a half points, 66% on the 49ers plus three. Bears at Packers: Chicago by two, Green Bay by two, four points, 62% on Green Bay plus two. Lions at Cardinals: Detroit by five and a half, Detroit by one and a half, four points, 62% on Arizona. Texans at Titans: Houston by seven and a half, Houston by four and a half, and the model's total is four points above the market's 37.5, a 62% over.

The quiet ones: Bengals at Dolphins (Cincinnati by six and a half against the model's three and a half, 58% on Miami plus six and a half), Raiders at Patriots (New England by three and a half against the model's seven, 60% on the Patriots), Browns at Jets (the Jets by two against the model's four and a half, 58%), Colts at Steelers (Pittsburgh by two and a half against a model pick 'em, 55% on Indianapolis), Giants at Commanders (Washington by three and a half against the model's one and a half, 55% on the Giants). Vikings at Saints, Broncos at Chargers and Bills at Rams are priced to the point and the model has nothing to say about their spreads. The totals it likes are overs: Bengals-Dolphins over 42.5 (59%), Vikings-Saints over 42 (57.5%), Broncos-Chargers over 42 (57%), Eagles-Jaguars over 42 (57%).

Five quarterbacks, and what they do to the numbers

Caleb Williams is out with a hamstring and Tyson Bagent starts for Chicago at Lambeau; the Packers plus one and a half is a four-star because of it, and Kalif Raymond's season projection has fallen with his quarterback. Baker Mayfield is out with a thumb and Jalon Daniels starts for Tampa Bay on Thursday. J.J. McCarthy is out for Minnesota and Kyler Murray starts in New Orleans against the league's worst defence; the model has Murray under 208.5 passing yards all the same, because Minnesota run it. Jaxson Dart is on injured reserve and Jameis Winston starts for the Giants in Washington, which is why three of the sixteen longshot slips are Winston throwing. Jayden Daniels is questionable with the elbow that kept him out of London and threw on Wednesday; if he starts, the Commanders' number goes up and the Giants plus three and a half gets thinner.

Then Lamar Jackson, questionable with an ankle and a non-participant on Wednesday, with a five-star bet sitting on him. Tyler Shough is questionable with a hand for New Orleans. Elsewhere: Breece Hall is doubtful, Ja'Marr Chase is in the concussion protocol, Justin Jefferson is questionable but aiming to play, Tee Higgins is questionable with a groin, Mike Evans with ribs, Brock Bowers with a knee, Zay Flowers with a foot, Saquon Barkley with a neck, Malik Nabers, Cam Skattebo, Alvin Kamara, Stefon Diggs, DJ Moore, Rashee Rice, Ladd McConkey, Terry McLaurin, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, D'Andre Swift and DeVonta Smith questionable. Josh Jacobs is out for Green Bay and Joe Mixon for Houston. The inactives drop 90 minutes before each kick-off, about 1pm UK for London and 4:30pm for the 6pm games. The injury table is live.

Touchdown scorers

Bhayshul Tuten at 1.90 to score in London is a 66% model call priced at 53%, the best scorer value on the board, and Derrick Henry at 1.66 on Sunday night is a 68% call priced at 60% with four scores in his last five. Those two are the plays. Further out, Isaiah Likely at 3.65 for the Giants in Washington is a 43% call priced at 27%, the biggest gap on the board, and he has 70.6 projected receiving yards against a line of 45.5; Isaac TeSlaa at 4.50 in Arizona is a 39% call priced at 22%; Roman Wilson at 4.50 in Pittsburgh a 33% call priced at 22%. Cam Skattebo at 2.10 is a 54% call priced at 48%, Ollie Gordon II at 2.30 a 47% call against 43%, James Cook III at 1.83 on Monday night a 59% call against 55%, Christian Watson at 2.60 a 41% call with four scores in five, Brock Bowers at 2.45 a 44% call with four in five.

The fades are the short prices. Jonathan Taylor at 1.38 is a 62% call priced at 72%; Javonte Williams at 1.41 a 55% call priced at 71%; Bijan Robinson at 1.41 a 56% call priced at 71%; Chase Brown at 1.64 a 52% call priced at 61%; Kyren Williams at 1.54 a 58% call priced at 65%; Puka Nacua at 1.80 a 38% call priced at 56%; Amon-Ra St. Brown at 1.64 a 45% call priced at 61%; Jaylen Warren at 1.71 a 32% call with no score in his last five. The Touchdown Parlays page builds the accas; the afternoon Best Value at 33.59 is Chris Rodriguez Jr., Christian Watson and AJ Barner, the model at 3.9% against 3% implied.

Bhayshul Tuten anytime touchdown — RB, JAX · v the Eagles, London — at 1.90 — The lead back in a 69% run-game edge. The best scorer value of the week. Game preview
Derrick Henry anytime touchdown — RB, BAL · at the Falcons, Sunday night — at 1.66 — Four of his last five. The goal line is his. Game preview
Isaiah Likely anytime touchdown — TE, NYG · at the Commanders — at 3.65 — The widest gap on the scorer board, with 70.6 projected receiving yards. Questionable, knee. Game preview

Props the model rates

Four five-star props on the Props Tool, and three of them are quarterbacks not running. Tyson Bagent under 3.5 carries at 2.05 is projected at 1.3, a 62% model call against 46% implied. Geno Smith under 3.5 carries at 2.00 is projected at 2.6, a 61% call against 47%. Jordan Love under 2.5 carries at 1.90 is projected at 1.6, a 64% call against 49%. Tyler Goodson under 17.5 rushing yards at 1.86 is projected at 12.6, a 64% call, and it is Thursday's published Best Bet. The five-star props the game pages add: Jalon Daniels over 182.5 passing yards (projected 225, 61%), Trevor Lawrence under 234.5 (207, 61%), Bijan Robinson under 88.5 rushing yards (78, 60%), Matthew Stafford under 282.5 (249, 62%), Joe Burrow over 240.5 (280, 60%), Quinshon Judkins over 15.5 carries (18.7, 60%), Omarion Hampton over 36.5 rushing yards (56, 61%), Brock Bowers under 71.5 receiving yards (62, 60%), Tyler Warren under 50.5 (41, 62%), Tucker Kraft under 49.5 (42, 60%).

The widest gaps on the Bet Builder board, for anyone building their own: Malik Willis over 179.5 passing yards is projected at 239, a 77% model call at 1.86, with Cincinnati's pass defence allowing 272 a game; James Cook III over 72.5 rushing yards is projected at 105, 75%; Xavier Hutchinson over 15.5 receiving yards is projected at 36, 75%, with Houston's receiving corps thinned; Kalif Raymond over 29.5 receiving yards is projected at 53.5, 74%; Isaiah Likely over 45.5 receiving yards is projected at 70.6, 72%; Bucky Irving over 51.5 rushing yards is projected at 72, 66%. Every one is a main line at 1.86 or thereabouts.

Tyson Bagent under 3.5 carries — QB, CHI · at the Packers — at 2.05 — Projected 1.3. A pocket backup priced like a runner. Game preview
Jordan Love under 2.5 carries — QB, GB · v the Bears — at 1.90 — Projected 1.6. Green Bay's run game is 32nd in the league and Love is not the reason it will improve. Game preview
Geno Smith under 3.5 carries — QB, NYJ · v the Browns — at 2.00 — Projected 2.6. Braelon Allen carries it; Smith throws it. Game preview
Malik Willis over 179.5 passing yards — QB, MIA · v the Bengals — at 1.86 — Projected 239 against a pass defence allowing 272 a game. The widest gap on the builder board. Game preview

Longshots: the published slips

Sixteen same-game slips are published for Week 5 on the Single Game Parlays page, two for Thursday and fourteen for Sunday, and the Week 5 round-up ranks them all. The record on that surface is four winners from 60 for 9.3 points staked and 15.83 returned, 6.53 up, and the 55/1 on Giants at Rams in Week 2 is still most of it. The ones the model likes most this week: the Thursday Second Receiver Ceiling at 56.03 (Daniels over 199.5, Godwin to score, Godwin over 49.5; the model at 10% against 1.8% implied), the Bengals-Dolphins Blowup Total at 60.87 (Higgins to score, Willis over 249.5, Burrow over 249.5, Malik Washington to score; 9.1% against 1.6%), the Lions-Cardinals Second Receiver Ceiling at 70.83 (LaPorta to score, LaPorta over 89.5, Goff over 349.5; 7.3% against 1.4%) and the Browns-Jets One Passing Game at 82.42 (Fannin over 49.5, Concepcion to score, Concepcion over 39.5, Watson over 249.5; 6.9% against 1.2%). A tenth to 0.15 of a point each, and the whole page is under two points.

Staking, and the ledger

A point on each five-star, half a point on the four-star leans and the two scorers, a point on the treble, a point each on the three five-star quarterback props: about eleven points of exposure before the slips. Everything is on the Best Bets ledger at the price quoted, graded in public once the game is final, and the Sunday card goes out on Friday morning from this board.

The two things to check before the first kick-off: Jackson's Friday report, because a point of the card sits on it, and the Daniels decision in Washington, because the Giants plus three and a half is a different bet against the starter. If either goes the wrong way, the bet on that game comes off, not down.

Put it to work

Best Bets The live card, re-rated as the lines move, and the public ledger: 53-44, 8.5% ROI.
NFL Parlays The treble, the spread and totals editions, the Bold One and the primetime slips.
Injuries Four quarterbacks out, two questionable. Check before you bet.