Single Game Parlays Week 5: Sixteen Slips, Ranked by the Model

Published October 8, 2026 by Statz NFL.

Every same-game slip the engine published for Week 5, ranked by the gap between the model's chance and the price: the two Thursday scripts with Jalon Daniels, the Bengals-Dolphins blowup, the Lions-Cardinals passing game, the Fannin slips in New Jersey, the three Winston scripts in Washington and the lottery tickets in Nashville.

The record after Week 4

Four winners from 60 slips, 9.3 points staked and 15.83 returned, a profit of 6.53 points at the declared stakes. No slip landed in Week 4; the 55/1 on Giants at Rams in Week 2 is still most of the profit and the small Jets-Lions winner in Week 3 is the rest. Fifty-six have lost. That is what a longshot page looks like three weeks after its one big night, and it is the reason every slip here is a tenth or 0.15 of a point.

Sixteen slips are up for Week 5 across seven games: two on Thursday night and fourteen across the Sunday 6pm window. Each is a script about one game, and the number on every card is the gap between the model's chance and the implied one. Ranked by that gap, widest first. All prices bet365.

The 0.15 slips

The Second Receiver Ceiling on Buccaneers at Cowboys at 56.03 is the slip of the week: Jalon Daniels over 199.5 passing yards at 2.32, Chris Godwin Jr. to score at 5.75 and Godwin over 49.5 receiving yards at 4.20, the model at 10% against 1.8% implied. Daniels projects at 225 passing yards from behind against a Dallas defence allowing 28 a game, and Godwin is third in the target tree at 5.4 projected targets, priced like a bit-part. The Throwing Festival on the same game at 54.58 is Daniels over 199.5, Godwin over 59.5 at 6.80, Dak Prescott over 262.5 at 1.86 and Ryan Flournoy over 31.5 at 1.86, the model at 9.6% against 1.8%: four legs, one game state, both teams throwing because the Dallas defence allows it.

The other three at 0.15 are shorter. The Second Receiver Ceiling on Browns at Jets at 49.82 is Harold Fannin Jr. over 59.5 receiving yards at 4.20, Fannin over 5.5 receptions at 3.25 and Deshaun Watson over 249.5 passing yards at 3.65, the model at 6.7% against 2%. The Throwing Festival on Colts at Steelers at 54.20 is Aaron Rodgers over 299.5 passing yards at 6.20, Michael Pittman Jr. over 28.5 receiving yards at 1.86 and Daniel Jones over 274.5 passing yards at 4.70, 5.1% against 1.8%; the Steelers' pass offence against the Colts' 28th-ranked pass defence is a 79% Pittsburgh edge, which is what the Rodgers leg is built on. The Second Receiver Ceiling on Texans at Titans at 41.92 is Cam Ward over 182.5 passing yards at 1.86, C.J. Stroud over 299.5 at 4.60 and Wan'Dale Robinson over 59.5 receiving yards at 4.90, 5.3% against 2.4%, the narrowest gap on the page.

Second Receiver Ceiling, TB @ DAL — Daniels o199.5 2.32 · Godwin TD 5.75 · Godwin o49.5 4.20 — at 56.03 — The slip of the week. A backup throwing from behind, a third receiver priced like a fourth. Game preview
Throwing Festival, TB @ DAL — Daniels o199.5 · Godwin o59.5 6.80 · Prescott o262.5 1.86 · Flournoy o31.5 1.86 — at 54.58 — Four legs, one game state. Dallas are 32nd for explosive plays allowed. Game preview
Second Receiver Ceiling, CLE @ NYJ — Fannin o59.5 4.20 · Fannin o5.5 rec 3.25 · Watson o249.5 3.65 — at 49.82 — The rookie tight end is Cleveland's passing game. Three legs on one player and his quarterback. Game preview

The tenth-of-a-point slips

The Blowup Total on Bengals at Dolphins at 60.87 has the second-widest gap on the page: Tee Higgins to score at 1.83, Malik Willis over 249.5 passing yards at 4.50, Joe Burrow over 249.5 at 2.24 and Malik Washington to score at 3.30, the model at 9.1% against 1.6%. Willis projects at 239 against a Bengals pass defence allowing 272 a game, Burrow at 280 against a Miami defence that cannot rush him. Higgins is questionable with a groin; if he sits, the leg voids and the slip shortens. Lions at Cardinals carries two: the One Passing Game at 82.59 (Amon-Ra St. Brown over 99.5 receiving yards at 2.94, Sam LaPorta to score at 2.45, LaPorta over 59.5 at 2.34, Jared Goff over 349.5 passing yards at 4.90; 7.1% against 1.2%) and the Second Receiver Ceiling at 70.83 (LaPorta to score, LaPorta over 89.5 at 5.90, Goff over 349.5; 7.3% against 1.4%). Arizona's pass defence allows 248 a game and the Lions throw for 303, second in the league; LaPorta projects at 66 receiving yards against a line of 49.5.

Browns at Jets has two more beyond the 0.15 slip: the One Passing Game at 82.42 (Fannin over 49.5 at 3.00, KC Concepcion to score at 3.90, Concepcion over 39.5 receiving yards at 1.93, Watson over 249.5 at 3.65; 6.9% against 1.2%) and the Tight End Day at 100.03 (Fannin to score at 2.90, Fannin over 59.5 at 4.20, Fannin over 4.5 receptions at 2.25, Watson over 249.5; 5.7% against 1%). Colts at Steelers has the One Passing Game at 87.35: Rodgers over 299.5 at 6.20, DK Metcalf over 52.5 receiving yards at 1.86, Pat Freiermuth to score at 3.75 and Freiermuth over 29.5 at 2.02, 5.6% against 1.1%.

Giants at Commanders is three Jameis Winston scripts. The Second Receiver Ceiling at 77.69 is Winston over 274.5 passing yards at 5.70, Malik Nabers to score at 2.90 and Nabers over 89.5 receiving yards at 4.70, 5.7% against 1.3%. The Blowup Total at 97.97 is Winston over 249.5 at 3.70, Isaiah Likely to score at 3.65, Nabers over 57.5 at 1.86 and Jayden Daniels over 249.5 at 3.90, 4.2% against 1%, and it needs Daniels to start. The Throwing Festival at 136.67 is Winston over 274.5, Nabers to score, Nabers over 59.5 at 2.12 and Daniels over 249.5, 2.8% against 0.7%. Nabers is questionable; so is Likely; so is Daniels. Texans at Titans has the two longest prices on the page: the Blowup Total at 145.07 (Ward over 182.5 at 1.86, Elic Ayomanor over 19.5 receiving yards at 2.02, Carnell Tate to score at 3.90, Stroud over 274.5 at 3.00, Wan'Dale Robinson over 49.5 at 3.30; 3.1% against 0.7%) and the Throwing Festival at 118.59 (Ward over 182.5, Stroud over 299.5 at 4.60, Robinson to score at 4.20, Robinson over 49.5; 2.7% against 0.8%). Nashville has averaged 35.8 points in this series and the under is 4-2. The model knows, which is why they are a tenth each.

Blowup Total, CIN @ MIA — Higgins TD 1.83 · Willis o249.5 4.50 · Burrow o249.5 2.24 · M. Washington TD 3.30 — at 60.87 — Two quarterbacks throwing against defences that cannot cover. Higgins is questionable; a void shortens it. Game preview
Second Receiver Ceiling, DET @ ARI — LaPorta TD 2.45 · LaPorta o89.5 5.90 · Goff o349.5 4.90 — at 70.83 — The second-ranked pass offence against the 23rd-ranked pass defence in the week's highest total. Game preview
One Passing Game, CLE @ NYJ — Fannin o49.5 3.00 · Concepcion TD 3.90 · Concepcion o39.5 1.93 · Watson o249.5 3.65 — at 82.42 — Concepcion projects at 51 receiving yards against a line of 37.5. The Jets' pass defence is sixth, which is the risk. Game preview

How to play the page

Pick the scripts you believe, not the prices. The Thursday pair, the Bengals-Dolphins blowup and the Lions-Cardinals passing game are the four with the widest gaps and the clearest stories, and they come to half a point between them at the declared stakes. The whole page is 1.85 points. The one rule that matters on a page like this is the one that has held since Week 2: a 55/1 winner pays for two months of tenths, and it only pays if you were on it for a tenth every week.

Three of the sixteen depend on questionable players: Tee Higgins (Bengals-Dolphins blowup), Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely (the three Winston slips), Jayden Daniels (two of the Winston slips). A player who is ruled out voids his leg and the slip shortens; a player who starts hurt plays to his line. Check the injury table at 4:30pm UK on Sunday, when the inactives for the 6pm games drop.

Put it to work

Single Game Parlays All sixteen published slips with every leg, price and the record at the declared stakes.
Props Tool Every priced prop the model rates, one board; the legs on these slips come from it.
Injuries Higgins, Nabers, Likely and Daniels decide four of the slips.