NFL Parlays Week 4: The Editions, the London Window, the Touchdown Accas and the Record

Published October 3, 2026 by Statz NFL.

Every parlay the engine published for Week 4, window by window: the first two cross-game winners of the season, the Sunday editions from a 3.01 double to a 28/1 Bold One, the London primetime parlay, the touchdown accas and the honest record.

The record moved

Two of the cross-game editions landed last Sunday, the first winners on that surface since launch, and the record on NFL Parlays is now two from 16 for 8.7pt staked and 10.22pt returned, a profit of 1.52pt. The single-game slips that the primetime windows draw on are four from 45 for 8.63pt, after a small winner on the Jets-Lions Second Receiver Ceiling. The touchdown accas are one from 36 and 2.41pt down. All three numbers are at the declared stakes and all three are on the ledger with every leg frozen at publication.

The pages work the same way every week. Editions build on Tuesday and Wednesday, and this week again on Saturday morning for the Sunday windows, from the model's probabilities; the stake follows the price: a point up to about 8.0, a quarter to 25, 0.15 to 60, a tenth beyond. Fifteen games are left after Thursday, and this week the Sunday morning game in London is its own window.

Sunday afternoon: the five game-market editions

The afternoon slate carries the full set and a new one at the front. The Short-Price Double at 3.01 is two of the model's shortest calls on the slate, a point for the reader who wants one slip. The Sensible Treble at 6.20, the Spread Parlay at 8.33 and the Totals Parlay at 8.36 are the core editions at a point each, and The Bold One at 28.05 is the long one at 0.15pt. The legs are on the page for members; the sides they are built from are the card in this week's Sunday Special, where the model's strongest calls are two home underdogs with replacement quarterbacks, Washington in London and Tampa Bay, and four totals.

The slate parlays, built from player props across a window, are 6.09 for the early games at a quarter and 12.02 for the late games at a quarter. Last week's equivalents both lost; the record on those is zero from four.

Short-Price Double, Sunday afternoon — Two short legs — at 3.01 — The entry edition. Legs on the page. Game preview
Sensible Treble, Sunday afternoon — Three legs, moneylines and spreads — at 6.20 — The core edition; one of its cousins landed last week. Game preview
Spread Parlay, Sunday afternoon — Three against the spread — at 8.33 — Underdogs with the points dominate this week's card; expect them here. Game preview
Totals Parlay, Sunday afternoon — Three over-unders — at 8.36 — Four five-star totals on the card make this the edition the model likes most. Game preview
The Bold One, Sunday afternoon — The longest edition — at 28.05 — On the longshot stake rule. Game preview

The London window and the primetime nights

Colts at Commanders at 2:30pm UK is its own window and carries two single-game slips. The Primetime Parlay at 11.73 is five props the model rates at 61% to 65% each: Stefon Diggs and Keenan Allen over 3.5 receptions, Tyler Warren under 5.5 receptions, Jonathan Taylor over 14.5 receiving yards and Terry McLaurin over 49.5. The correlation model makes it 10.3% against 8.5% implied, a quarter point. The Second Receiver Ceiling at 73.26 is Keenan Allen to score and over 69.5 with Daniel Jones over 274.5, 5.7% against 1.4%, a tenth. Allen and McLaurin are both questionable, and a leg that does not play voids rather than loses.

Sunday night carries a Primetime Parlay on Lions at Panthers at 8.48; Monday night a Primetime Parlay on Falcons at Saints at 6.43 and a One Passing Game at 79.62. The primetime parlays are nought from three so far, each losing on one leg, which is roughly what a 15% slip does three times in a row. A quarter point each.

The touchdown accas

Fourteen touchdown accas across three windows. The afternoon Short Prices at 7.90 is Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Josh Allen and Tee Higgins to score, three players the model has at 46%, 57% and 50%, and it makes the acca 13.4% against 12.7% implied: a point, and a thin one. The afternoon Best Value at 22.11 is Terry McLaurin, Michael Wilson and George Kittle, 6.4% against 4.5%, a quarter. The early-games Short Prices at 4.77 and Best Value at 96.64, the Running Backs, Receivers and Tight Ends editions in each window (25.58 to 46.50), and the late-games Best Value at 46.25 are on the page for members.

The record on this surface is one from 36 and 2.41pt down. The honest reading is that anytime-scorer accas are the hardest product on the site to make pay: three independent 50% legs land one time in eight, and the book prices them at about one in seven. The model's edge on each leg is real and small, and small edges on three legs do not survive the vig on a bad month. The point goes on the Short Prices because that is the edition where the edge is biggest; everything else on the page is a tenth or a quarter.

Short Prices, Sunday afternoon — Croskey-Merritt + Josh Allen + Tee Higgins, anytime TD — at 7.90 — Three scorers at 46%, 57% and 50%. The backbone edition, and the thinnest edge on the page. Game preview
Best Value, Sunday afternoon — McLaurin + Michael Wilson + Kittle, anytime TD — at 22.11 — Three receivers at 37% to 45%, priced at a third of that each. McLaurin is questionable. Game preview

What to actually do with this

One slip: the Totals Parlay this week, because four of the card's five-star picks are totals and the edition is built from the same calls. The set: the five afternoon editions are 4.15pt of exposure, the London primetime parlay a quarter, the touchdown Short Prices a point. Everything else is longshot money. Every slip is recorded before kick-off, so Sunday morning's page is Saturday's publication, not a rewrite.

Put it to work

NFL Parlays The week by window: every edition with the model's probability on each leg.
Touchdown Parlays The anytime-scorer accas by window, and the record.