Ravens at Falcons Preview: Week 5 Sunday Night Picks, Odds and Projections

Published October 8, 2026 by Statz NFL.

Sunday night in Atlanta: the Ravens are road underdogs at a 3-1 record, Lamar Jackson is questionable with an ankle, and the model has Baltimore winning by three against a market that has the Falcons by three and a half. The five-star spread, the over, Henry to score and the slips for Ravens at Falcons.

The Ravens as underdogs, with an asterisk on the quarterback

Sunday night in Atlanta kicks off at 1:20am UK time on Monday morning, 8:20pm Eastern. Baltimore are 3-1 with the best yards-per-play in the league at 6.9, 29 points a game, 411 yards, 153.5 of them rushing, and a plus-three turnover margin; they have beaten Dallas 34-31 and Tennessee 24-18 in the last two. Atlanta are 2-2 and have won two straight, 35-14 over Green Bay and 45-24 over New Orleans, on the back of the second-best run game in the league at 181 yards a game and the best run defence, 48.3 allowed. The market has the home side by three and a half at a total of 43.5.

The asterisk is Lamar Jackson, questionable with an ankle and a non-participant on Wednesday. Zay Flowers is questionable with a foot and Rashod Bateman with a shoulder. Atlanta are without Malik Heath, Troy Andersen and Mike Hughes. Everything below assumes Jackson plays, and the Best Bets card for Sunday night goes out on Friday morning, after the second practice report, for exactly that reason. The series is short and low-scoring: Baltimore 2-0, both unders, an average total of 34, the last a 17-9 Ravens win in Week 16 of 2022. Baltimore had seven days, Atlanta six.

Where the game is won

The matchup grid gives Baltimore the air and Atlanta the ground. Baltimore throwing against a Falcons pass defence allowing 276.5 yards a game, 29th in the league, is an 85% Ravens edge, the most lopsided unit matchup of the week; Atlanta throwing against the Ravens is a 67% Baltimore edge. On the ground it flips: Atlanta's 181-yard run game against the Ravens' tenth-ranked front is a 57% Falcons edge, and Baltimore running against the best run defence in the league is a 52% Atlanta edge, which is the first time this season the Ravens' run game has not been the favourite in its own matchup.

The projections: Jackson 18 of 27 for 223 yards, 1.7 touchdowns and 38.5 on the ground; Michael Penix Jr. 215 yards and 1.2 touchdowns; Derrick Henry 105 rushing yards; Bijan Robinson 78. The model's score is Baltimore 26.5, Atlanta 23, a 49.5 total, the Ravens winning 60 times in 100. The market has the Falcons by three and a half. That is seven points of disagreement on the spread and six on the total, and both are on the card.

The model's number

Baltimore plus three and a half at 1.90 on Polymarket is a 61.1% model call against 52.6% implied, five stars, and it is the bet of the night: a side the model has winning outright, getting points. The over at 43.5 at 1.94 on Kalshi is a 55.8% call against 51.5%, four stars, half a point, on a model total of 49.5 against a market that remembers two unders in the series. The Ravens to win outright at 2.60 on Kalshi is a 49.2% call against 38.5%, three stars, and a half point of that is reasonable for anyone who would rather be paid for the win than insured against the margin.

All three sit on Jackson's ankle. If he is downgraded on Friday, the model's Baltimore number drops by more than three points and the spread becomes a pass; the over survives better, because Atlanta's offence is the half of the total the market is underrating. Read the Friday report before the card, not after.

Ravens +3.5 v the Falcons — Spread, BAL @ ATL, Mon 1:20am UK / Sun 8:20pm ET — at 1.90 — The model has Baltimore winning by three; the market gives them three and a half. Conditional on Jackson. Game preview
Over 43.5 points — Total, BAL @ ATL — at 1.94 — Model total 49.5. An 85% passing edge one way and a 57% rushing edge the other. Game preview
Ravens to win — Moneyline, BAL @ ATL — at 2.60 — A coin flip at 8/5. The better team by yards per play, on the road, as an underdog. Game preview

Scorers, props and the slips

Derrick Henry to score at 1.66 is a 68% model call priced at 60%, and he has scored in four of his last five. Zay Flowers at 3.10 is a 36% call against 32% implied, foot permitting, and he has also scored in four of five. The fades are the Atlanta stars: Bijan Robinson at 1.41 is a 56% call priced at 71%, Drake London at 2.30 a 30% call priced at 43%. Atlanta score on the ground, and the model has the touchdowns spread around.

The five-star prop is Bijan Robinson under 88.5 rushing yards at 1.86, projected at 78, a 60% under: he averages well over that, but Baltimore allow 100 a game and the model has Atlanta throwing more than usual against that 67% Ravens pass-defence edge. Henry over 86.5 rushing yards at 1.86 is projected at 105, a 62% over, against the best run defence in the league, which is the model backing the back over the front. Penix over 0.5 rushing yards at 1.86 is a 65% call. The NFL Parlays Sunday night edition is the Primetime Parlay at 7.19: Henry to score at 1.62, Jahan Dotson over 14.5 receiving yards at 1.56, Mark Andrews over 24.5 receiving yards at 1.53 and Flowers over 59.5 receiving yards at 1.86, the model at 21.2% against 13.9% implied, a quarter point.

Bijan Robinson under 88.5 rushing yards — RB, ATL — at 1.86 — Projected 78. Atlanta throw more than usual against this secondary. Game preview
Derrick Henry anytime touchdown — RB, BAL — at 1.66 — Four of his last five. The goal line is his whatever the front looks like. Game preview
Primetime Parlay, BAL @ ATL — Henry TD · Dotson o14.5 rec · Andrews o24.5 rec · Flowers o59.5 rec — at 7.19 — The published Sunday-night edition. Baltimore throw against the 29th-ranked pass defence; four short legs. Game preview

The verdict

If Jackson plays, this is the best game-line bet of the week: the Ravens are the better team by every efficiency number, they are getting points, and the price is 1.90. The over at 43.5 is the second bet. If he does not, the Ravens side is a pass and the over is the lean. Last week's Sunday-night pick, Carolina plus three and a half, landed 32-26; the island games went one from three.

The FanTeam Sunday-night contest is £93m for six players. The optimiser captains Bijan Robinson at £20.0m, with Jackson as vice-captain at £17.2m, then Henry, Drake London, Penix and Jahan Dotson for 108.2 projected points at £92.5m. Henry at £16.2m for 19.4 projected is the best value on the board, and if Jackson is ruled out the captaincy should go to him.

Put it to work

Ravens at Falcons The game page: model, matchups, injuries and odds, then the live score.
Injuries Jackson, Flowers and Bateman: the Friday report decides the card.
NFL Parlays The Sunday-night Primetime Parlay, with every leg and price.