Falcons at Saints Preview: Monday Night Football Week 4 Picks, Odds and Projections

Published October 3, 2026 by Statz NFL.

Four unders in the last six meetings, the league's best run defence against the league's second-best run game, and a model that has the Saints by two and a half in a 46-point game. The under, the Penix prop and the slips for Falcons at Saints.

A division game that stays low

Monday Night Football closes Week 4 in the Superdome on 5 October, 8:15pm Eastern, 01:15 BST on Tuesday. Atlanta are 1-2 and come off the 35-14 win in Green Bay that beat our Packers pick by three touchdowns; they have 11 days' rest to the Saints' eight. New Orleans are 1-2 after losing 35-27 at home to the Raiders. The series is Atlanta's, four of the last six, and four of those six went under at an average of 43.5 points: the last three were 19-17, 24-10 and 20-17.

The tape says the same thing about Atlanta that the series does. They score 17 a game, 27th in the league, on 173 rushing yards a game, second, and 181 passing yards, 29th, with a turnover margin of minus six, last in the league. Their run defence allows 47.7 yards a game, the best in football by a distance. New Orleans are the opposite shape: 306 passing yards a game, second, 53% on third down, fourth, and a run defence allowing 129 a game, 27th.

Where the game is won

The matchup grid is symmetric. New Orleans throwing against Atlanta's pass defence is an 84% Saints edge; Atlanta running against the Saints' run defence is an 84% Falcons edge. Atlanta throwing is an 80% Saints edge, and the Saints running is a 65% Falcons edge. Each team does one thing well and the other team cannot stop it, which is why the model has the game at 46 points and close.

The projections: Tyler Shough 267 yards and 1.4 touchdowns with 20 on the ground, Michael Penix Jr. 195 yards and 1.1 touchdowns, Bijan Robinson 24.5 points a game on the season rate, Chris Olave the Saints' lead target. Atlanta are without receiver Malik Heath, linebacker Troy Andersen and cornerback Mike Hughes, which thins a pass defence already ranked 27th; the Saints are without defensive tackle Keeshawn Silver, which helps Bijan.

The model's number

Saints 24.3, Falcons 21.8. New Orleans by 2.5 and a 46-point total, the Saints winning 57 times in 100. The market has the Saints by two and a half and a 47.5 total. The spread is priced to the half-point, 50% model against 50% market, and there is no bet on it at all. The under 47.5 at 2.06 on Kalshi is a 51.5% call against 48.5% implied, four stars, and the series record of four unders in six is the extra reason to take it at plus money.

Under 47.5 points — Total, ATL @ NO, Mon 8:15pm ET / Tue 01:15 BST — at 2.06 — Model total 46. Atlanta score 17 a game and the last three meetings produced 36, 34 and 37 points. Game preview

Scorers, props and the slips

Bijan Robinson at 1.43 to score is a 57% model call priced at 70%, and the fade, even as the best player in the game: Atlanta run through him and score less than anyone else who does. No other scorer in the game is rated above its price. The five-star prop is Penix under 222.5 passing yards at 1.86, projected 195, a 61% under: Atlanta do not throw, and against a pass defence they could throw against, the model still has them running.

The Single Game Parlays page has three slips. The Primetime Parlay at 6.43 is the four likeliest props as a short acca, legs for members, a quarter point. The One Passing Game at 89.69 is Shough over 324.5, Olave over 109.5, Juwan Johnson to score and over 36.5 receiving yards, 6.2% against 1.1% implied, and the Second Receiver Ceiling at 71.15 is the Johnson version without Olave, 5.8% against 1.4%. Both are the Saints-throw-for-350 script, a tenth of a point each, and both are the opposite of the under.

Michael Penix Jr. under 222.5 passing yards — QB, ATL — at 1.86 — Projected 195. Atlanta have thrown for 181 a game; the line is set for a team that throws. Game preview
Fade: Bijan Robinson anytime TD — RB, ATL — at 1.43 — A 57% call priced at 70%. The best player in a 17-point offence. Game preview

The verdict

Saints by a field goal in a game that stays in the forties, which is what this fixture does. The under is the bet, the Penix under is the prop, and there is no spread bet because the model and the market agree to the half-point. Monday night has been the quiet night of the week on this page twice running; that is the honest read, not a lack of effort.

Put it to work

Game page: Falcons at Saints Live lines, the model's edge table and the full prop board.
Single Game Parlays The three published slips, priced by the correlation model.
Best Bets The star card and the public ledger.