Colts at Commanders London Preview: Week 4 Picks, Odds and Projections from Tottenham

Published October 3, 2026 by Statz NFL.

A Sunday-afternoon kick-off in London, two defences allowing 30 a game, and Marcus Mariota in for Jayden Daniels. The model has it a one-point game: the Commanders with the points, the props and the slips for Colts at Commanders.

Two bad defences at Tottenham

The London game kicks off at 2:30pm UK time on Sunday 4 October at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, 9:30am Eastern, and it is the only NFL game on earth for three and a half hours. Both teams are 1-2. Indianapolis beat Houston 19-17 last week after five straight losses; Washington beat Seattle 33-31 after losing to Dallas by 17. On the tape they are the same team: Indianapolis allow 30.3 points a game, 29th in the league, Washington allow 30.7, 31st, and both give up 291 passing yards a game, which is 30th and 31st. The one difference is on the ground, where Washington's run defence ranks third and the Colts' 29th.

The quarterback change is the story. Jayden Daniels is out with an elbow injury, Marcus Mariota starts, and the Commanders are also without guard Sam Cosmi, safety Nick Cross and running back Rachaad White. Indianapolis have Keenan Allen questionable with a groin problem and Alec Pierce on injured reserve. Terry McLaurin was added to the report on Friday with a hamstring. The series is short, two games, both unders at an average of 31.5 points, the last of them a 17-16 Washington win in 2022.

Where the game is won

The matchup grid gives each side the other's weakness. Daniel Jones throwing against Washington's pass defence is a 78% Colts edge; the Commanders' run game, 132 yards a game and eighth in the league, against a Colts front allowing 141 is an 86% Washington edge. Jonathan Taylor against Washington's third-ranked run defence is the one unit that leans Washington, at 62%. The projections follow: Jones 235 yards and 1.3 touchdowns, Mariota 233 yards, 1.5 touchdowns and 21 on the ground, Taylor 22 points a game on the season rate, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt the lead back for Washington with White out.

The model has no strong view on who wins, which is itself the view. Indianapolis 24.2, Washington 23.4, a 47.6 total, the Colts winning 52 times in 100. The market has the Colts by four and a half, a 47.5 total and a Commanders moneyline of 2.80, which implies 35.8%. The total is priced to the decimal. The spread is where the model and the market part.

The model's number

Washington plus four and a half at 1.98 on Kalshi is a 55.6% model call against 50.5% implied, five stars, and it is the bet: a one-point game with four and a half points of cushion. The Commanders moneyline at 2.90 on Kalshi is a 41.1% call against 34.5%, three stars, a half-point for those who would rather be paid for the upset than protected against it. The total is a pass; 47.6 against 47.5 is no opinion at all. A warning that applies to every Mariota-era line: the market priced Daniels out on Thursday and the model has priced Mariota in at the number the projection gives him, and if the market is right that the drop is bigger than that, the spread is where it shows.

Commanders +4.5 v the Colts — Spread, IND @ WSH, Sun 2:30pm UK / 9:30am ET — at 1.98 — Model has it a one-point game. Two defences nobody can stop; the points are the edge. Game preview
Commanders to win — Moneyline, IND @ WSH — at 2.90 — A 41% shot at 2.90 with the home run game against the worse run defence. Game preview

Scorers, props and the slips

Jonathan Taylor at 1.33 to score is a 62% model call priced at 75%, and he is the fade on the board even as the best player in the game; Washington's run defence is the one unit on the field that is good. Nothing else on the scorer board is rated above its price, which tells you the model has this game scored by committee.

Two five-star props, both on Washington's ground game. Mariota under 25.5 rushing yards at 1.86 is projected at 21, a 61% under: he runs, but not as much as the market remembers. Croskey-Merritt under 4.5 receiving yards at 1.90 is projected at 3.4, a 64% under, the lead back as a runner rather than a receiver. The Single Game Parlays page carries three slips here. The Primetime Parlay at 11.73 is the one worth a quarter: five props the model rates at 61% to 65% each, Stefon Diggs and Keenan Allen over 3.5 receptions, Tyler Warren under 5.5 receptions, Taylor over 14.5 receiving yards and McLaurin over 49.5 receiving yards, which the correlation model makes 10.3% against 8.5% implied. The Second Receiver Ceiling at 73.26 and the One Passing Game at 75.98 are both Keenan Allen scripts at a tenth of a point, and both need his groin to pass the Saturday report.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt under 4.5 receiving yards — RB, WSH — at 1.90 — Projected 3.4. Twenty carries and a check-down or two; the line asks for three. Game preview
Marcus Mariota under 25.5 rushing yards — QB, WSH — at 1.86 — Projected 21. The line is set for the Mariota of 2019; the model has a 34-year-old handing off. Game preview
Primetime Parlay slip — Diggs o3.5 rec + K. Allen o3.5 rec + Warren u5.5 rec + Taylor o14.5 rec yds + McLaurin o49.5 — at 11.73 — Five props at 61% to 65% each. Allen and McLaurin are both questionable; a leg that is out voids, not loses. Game preview

The verdict

A one-score game between two teams that cannot stop anybody, decided by whichever defence gets a stop late. Washington with the points is the bet, the two unders on their run game are the props, and the moneyline is a half-point on the home crowd and the better ground attack. Inactives drop around 1pm UK; Allen and McLaurin are the names to look for.

Put it to work

Game page: Colts at Commanders Live lines, the model's edge table and every projected prop.
Single Game Parlays The three London slips, priced by the correlation model.
Injuries Allen and McLaurin through Saturday.