Bills at Rams Preview: Week 5 Monday Night Picks, Odds and Projections

Published October 8, 2026 by Statz NFL.

Monday night at SoFi: the league's top-scoring offence against the league's best pass defence, a 54.5 total and a series that averaged 64.7 points. The model has the Rams by three and the total under. Stafford under 282.5, Cook over 72.5, the scorer parlay and the lineup for Bills at Rams.

The best offence against the best pass defence

Monday night in Los Angeles kicks off at 1:15am UK time on Tuesday morning, 8:15pm Eastern. Buffalo are 3-1 and score 31.8 points a game, the most in the league, on 6.7 yards a play and a 53.3% third-down rate, second; they lost 29-26 at New England last time out. Los Angeles are 2-2, first in the power rankings, second in total yards at 427 a game and fourth in passing at 300.5, and the defence allows 153.8 passing yards a game, the fewest in the league by a distance, and 20.8 points. They beat Philadelphia 24-20 in Week 4. The market has the Rams by three at a total of 54.5.

The series is three games old and nobody has stopped anybody: 64.7 points a game, the last meeting a 44-42 Rams win in Week 14 of 2024. That is where the 54.5 comes from. Buffalo's pass defence allows 274 yards a game, 27th, and Matthew Stafford throws for 300; Buffalo's offence is the best in the league and the Rams' pass defence is the best in the league, which is the matchup of the night and the reason the model has the total lower than the market. DJ Moore is questionable for Buffalo with a shoulder, Colby Parkinson for the Rams with a knee. Both teams had eight days.

Where the game is won

The matchup grid belongs to the home side. Los Angeles throwing against the Bills' 27th-ranked pass defence is an 83% Rams edge; Los Angeles running against the Buffalo front is a 65% Rams edge. Buffalo's passing game against the league's best pass defence is a 57% Rams edge, and Buffalo's run game, James Cook III against a front allowing 102 a game, is the Bills' one favourable unit at 57%. So the game the model sees is Josh Allen throwing for 215 yards, less than usual, while Cook carries the offence on the ground with 105 projected rushing yards, and Stafford throwing for 249 with 1.8 touchdowns.

The model's score is Los Angeles 27.8, Buffalo 24.9, a 52.7 total, the Rams winning 58 times in 100. The market has the Rams by three and a total of 54.5. Two points of disagreement on the total, none on the spread, and the Monday night card goes out on Saturday morning.

The model's number

The spread is a pass: Buffalo plus three at 1.90 is a 50.6% model call against 50.2% implied, a coin flip priced as one, and Los Angeles minus three and a half at 2.11 is a 47.7% call, one star. The under at 54.5 at 1.98 on DraftKings is a 51.8% model call against 48.3% implied, two stars, and the model's 52.7 is the reason: the best pass defence in the league does not usually give up 30. It is a lean, half a point, and the series history is the argument against it. Buffalo to win at 2.60 is a 40.1% call against 38.5%, two stars, fair.

The bets of the night are props. Stafford under 282.5 passing yards at 1.86 is projected at 249, a 62% under, five stars: the Rams run it well enough, 127 yards a game, that Stafford does not need 283 even with an 83% edge through the air. James Cook III over 72.5 rushing yards at 1.86 is projected at 105, a 75% model call, the biggest single gap on any prop this week; the Rams' pass defence pushes Buffalo to the ground and Cook is the ground.

Matthew Stafford under 282.5 passing yards — QB, LAR — at 1.86 — Projected 249. The Rams run it well enough that he does not need 283. Game preview
James Cook III over 72.5 rushing yards — RB, BUF — at 1.86 — Projected 105, the widest prop gap of the week. The best pass defence in the league pushes Buffalo to the ground. Game preview
Under 54.5 points — Total, BUF @ LAR, Tue 1:15am UK / Mon 8:15pm ET — at 1.98 — Model total 52.7. A lean against a series that has averaged 64.7. Game preview

Scorers, props and the parlay

The scorer board is honest about this one. Cook at 1.83 is a 59% model call priced at 55%, the one with value; Josh Allen at 1.83 is a 56% call against 55%, fair; Kyren Williams at 1.54 is a 58% call priced at 65%, slightly short. Puka Nacua at 1.80 is a 38% call priced at 56%, the fade of the night, and Davante Adams at 1.95 a 42% call against 51%. The Rams score through Kyren and Stafford's touchdowns go wide.

The receiving props follow the same pattern. Nacua under 94.5 receiving yards is projected at 74, a 73% under at 1.86; Nacua under 7.5 receptions is projected at 5.6, a 77% under at 1.68. On the Buffalo side, Keon Coleman under 46.5 receiving yards is projected at 31, a 77% under, and Dalton Kincaid under 50.5 is projected at 36, a 75% under: Allen throws less, so everybody catches less. The NFL Parlays Monday-night edition is the Primetime Parlay at 4.99: Cook, Kyren Williams and Allen all to score, at 1.80, 1.54 and 1.80, the model at 20.7% against 20% implied, a quarter point. Three of the four most likely scorers in the game on one slip.

Puka Nacua under 94.5 receiving yards — WR, LAR — at 1.86 — Projected 74. Stafford spreads it; the market prices the name. Game preview
Primetime Parlay, BUF @ LAR — Cook TD · K. Williams TD · Allen TD — at 4.99 — The published Monday-night edition. Three of the four likeliest scorers in the game. Game preview

The verdict

The market has the spread right and the model agrees, so the night is props: Stafford under, Cook over, Nacua under, half a point on the game under. The Rams win 58 times in 100 in the model and that is not enough to bet at 1.90 with the three. Last week's Monday-night pick, the Falcons-Saints under, lost in a 69-point game, and that is the warning for the under lean here: this series does not do low scores.

The FanTeam Monday-night contest is £97m for six players. The optimiser captains Josh Allen at £19.6m for 21.9 projected, the highest number in any single-game contest this week, with Cook as vice-captain at £14.7m, then Kyren Williams, Stafford, Davante Adams and DJ Moore (questionable) for 114.4 points at £96.9m. Cook at 19.0 projected for £14.7m is the best value on the board by a distance.

Put it to work

Bills at Rams The game page: model, matchups, injuries and odds, then the live score.
Props Tool Every priced prop the model rates for Monday night.
FanTeam Optimiser The Monday-night six-player contest, priced against the projection.