Eagles at Jaguars London Preview: Week 5 Picks, Odds and Projections from Tottenham

Published October 8, 2026 by Statz NFL.

The second London game of the season is a Sunday-afternoon kick-off at Tottenham between a Jacksonville defence allowing 13 a game and a Philadelphia offence scoring 19. The model has the Jaguars by eight, a line the market already has. The props, the scorers, the parlay and the lineup for Eagles at Jaguars.

The best defence in London against the worst offence

Eagles at Jaguars kicks off at 2:30pm UK time on Sunday 11 October at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, 9:30am Eastern, Jacksonville's regular London fixture and the only game on until the 6pm slate. Jacksonville are 3-1 and top of the AFC South, and the defence is the reason: 13.3 points allowed a game, second in the league, 74 rushing yards allowed, second, a turnover margin of plus six, first. They beat New England 35-6 and Cincinnati 22-17 in their last two. The one hole is the pass defence, 291.5 yards allowed a game, 31st, because teams have to throw against them.

Philadelphia are 2-2 and the offence is 26th in scoring at 18.8 a game, 30th in passing at 178 yards, 30th in first downs. Jalen Hurts projects at 19 of 30 for 205 yards and 1.5 touchdowns with 29 on the ground, and the people he throws to are in doubt: DeVonta Smith is questionable with the hamstring that kept him out last week, Dallas Goedert is questionable with a knee, and Saquon Barkley is questionable with a neck. Jacksonville have Cooper Hodges out on the line and otherwise come in clean. Philadelphia have won all three meetings, two of them overs at an average of 47.7, the last a 28-23 win in Week 9 of 2024. Both teams had a full week.

Where the game is won

The matchup grid is more even than the records. Philadelphia throwing against that 31st-ranked pass defence is a 60% Eagles edge, the best unit matchup they have, and if Smith plays it gets better. Jacksonville's run game against the Eagles' 23rd-ranked run defence is a 69% Jaguars edge, and Bhayshul Tuten is the player this game runs through: 15.9 projected fantasy points, the best value on the FanTeam London board and a 66% model chance to score. Philadelphia running against the Jaguars' second-ranked front is a 63% Jacksonville edge, and Barkley's neck makes it worse.

The model's score is Jacksonville 26.1, Philadelphia 18.3, a 44.4 total, the Jaguars winning 72 times in 100. The market has Jacksonville by seven and a half and a total of 42 to 42.5. The spread is priced to the point: Jacksonville minus seven and a half at 2.02 on Kalshi is a 50.2% model call against 49.5% implied, one star, no bet. The total is where the small gap is.

The model's number

The over at 42.5 at 2.11 on Polymarket is a 49.6% model call against 47.4% implied, two stars, and the model's 44.4 says the market has the Eagles' offence rated a touch too low against a pass defence that leaks. It is a lean, half a point at most, and not on the card. Philadelphia plus half a point at 4.35 on Polymarket, the Eagles to win in effect, is a 26% call against 23% implied, three stars; the Eagles moneyline at 4.26 on Kalshi is the same bet. The Best Bets card for Sunday goes out on Friday morning, and the London game is unlikely to be on it unless a line moves.

The five-star here is a prop. Trevor Lawrence under 234.5 passing yards at 1.86 is projected at 207, a 61% under: Jacksonville run the ball, the defence gives them short fields, and Lawrence has not needed 235 yards to win a game this season. If Smith is ruled out on Friday, the over leans harder the other way and Hurts' numbers go down; check the injury table before 1pm UK on Sunday, when the inactives drop.

Trevor Lawrence under 234.5 passing yards — QB, JAX — at 1.86 — Projected 207. Jacksonville run it and the defence hands them the ball; he does not need to throw. Game preview
Over 42.5 points — Total, PHI @ JAX, Sun 2:30pm UK / 9:30am ET — at 2.11 — Model total 44.4. A lean, not a card bet; the Eagles throw against the 31st-ranked pass defence. Game preview
Eagles to win — Moneyline, PHI @ JAX — at 4.26 — A 26% shot at better than 3/1 with a 3-0 series record. A quarter, for the upset. Game preview

Scorers, props and the parlay

Bhayshul Tuten to score at 1.90 is a 66% model call priced at 53%, the best scorer value on the whole Sunday board, and he has scored in two of his last five. Chris Rodriguez Jr., the Jaguars' second back, at 3.60 is a 32% call against 28% implied, and he is in two of this week's touchdown accas. Jalen Hurts at 2.85 is a 38% call against 35%, about fair: he runs at the goal line because nobody else does. Parker Washington at 2.40 is a 37% call priced at 42%, a fade.

The NFL Parlays page has one London edition, the Primetime Parlay at 4.78: Tuten over 49.5 rushing yards at 1.52, Brian Thomas Jr. over 19.5 receiving yards at 1.69 and Parker Washington under 61.5 receiving yards at 1.86, the model at 21.9% against 20.9% implied, a quarter point. It is a Jacksonville-runs-and-wins script, three short legs. The under-rated props are Jacksonville's receivers: Washington under 4.5 receptions, projected 4.3, Jakobi Meyers under 41.5 receiving yards, projected 40.4, Brenton Strange under 36.5, projected 34.9. Small gaps, all the same direction: Lawrence throws less than the market thinks.

Bhayshul Tuten anytime touchdown — RB, JAX — at 1.90 — The lead back in a 69% run-game edge against the 23rd-ranked run defence. Game preview
Primetime Parlay, PHI @ JAX — Tuten o49.5 rush · B. Thomas o19.5 rec · P. Washington u61.5 rec — at 4.78 — The published London edition. Jacksonville run it and win; three short legs. Game preview

The verdict

The market has this one right, and that is a verdict too. Jacksonville by eight is the model's number and the market's, so the spread is a pass and the game is about the props: Lawrence under, Tuten to score, a half-point lean on the over. Last week's London pick, Washington plus four and a half, lost 30-13 and it is on the ledger; the island games went one from three. This week the London game offers less, and we are betting less.

The FanTeam London contest is £83m for six players and locks at 2:30pm UK. The optimiser captains Jalen Hurts, the cheapest route to the game's biggest ceiling at £14.9m, with Tuten as vice-captain, then Lawrence, DeVonta Smith (questionable), Parker Washington and Dontayvion Wicks, 98.9 projected points for £82.5m. If Smith is out, Jakobi Meyers at £10.2m is the swap.

Put it to work

Eagles at Jaguars The game page: model, matchups, injuries and odds, then the box score.
NFL Parlays The London Primetime Parlay, with every leg and price.
FanTeam Optimiser The London six-player contest, priced against the projection.