Texans at Jaguars London Preview: Week 6 Picks, Odds and Projections from Wembley

Published October 15, 2026 by Statz NFL.

Jacksonville stay in London and move to Wembley for a Sunday-morning game against a 1-4 Houston team the power rankings still rate ninth. The model and the market agree on Jacksonville by about three, so the game is about the props, the scorers and the slips for Texans at Jaguars.

A 1-4 team that is not a 1-4 team

Texans at Jaguars kicks off at 2:30pm UK time on Sunday 18 October at Wembley Stadium, 9:30am Eastern, the only game on until the 6pm slate. A week after beating Philadelphia 19-17 at Tottenham, Jacksonville are 4-1 and top of the AFC South on the back of the second-best defence in the league: 14 points allowed a game, and 63.8 rushing yards a game, the fewest anyone allows. Houston are 1-4, but they beat Tennessee 26-3 last week and sit ninth in the power rankings, above where the record says. Both teams had seven days.

The two sides are built to meet in the middle. Houston throw for 280 yards a game, fifth, and cannot run: 79 rushing yards, 31st. Jacksonville allow 277 passing yards a game, 30th, and stop the run better than anyone. The series is Houston 4-2 with an average total of 46.3, four of the six unders, and Jacksonville are 4-2 against the spread; the last meeting was a 36-29 Houston win in Week 10 last season, the one before a 17-10 Jaguars win. The full tape for each side is on the Texans stats and Jaguars stats pages, and the game page has the model.

Where the game is won

The matchup grid is lopsided in both directions. Houston passing against the Jacksonville secondary is a 90% Texans edge. Houston running against the Jacksonville front is a 94% Jaguars edge. Jacksonville passing against Houston is 70% Jaguars, and Jacksonville running into the Houston front is a 62% Texans edge. So the model's game is C.J. Stroud throwing a lot, projected at 251 yards, and Trevor Lawrence throwing less, projected at 225, with Houston's ground game a non-factor. The Jaguars rushing page shows how the Jacksonville offence runs through its backs, and the Texans receiving page shows the target tree Stroud is throwing into.

The injury sheet is Houston's running backs. Joe Mixon and Noah Whittington are out, David Montgomery is doubtful with a groin, and Woody Marks is the lead back, projected at 1.6 catches and 10 receiving yards. Nico Collins is the Houston receiver everything rides on, and Xavier Hutchinson, whose line the model likes, is the second option. Jacksonville's only absence of note is right tackle Cooper Hodges, out; tight end Nate Boerkircher is questionable. Both depth charts are live.

The model's number

The model has Jacksonville 22.4, Houston 19.3, a 41.8 total and the Jaguars winning 59 times in 100. The market has Jacksonville by two and a half at 42.5, the moneyline at about 1.70. The model and the market agree to within a point on all three lines, and a rating of one or two stars on every side says the same thing: Jacksonville minus two at 1.89 on BetRivers, one star; Jacksonville to win at 1.77 on Kalshi, a 57.8% call against 56.5%, two stars; the under at 42.5 at 1.98 on Kalshi, one star. There is no bet on a side or a total here, and the one thing that would change that is news.

So the bets are on the props board, and they have a theme: Houston's secondary options and Jacksonville's second back. Xavier Hutchinson over 15.5 receiving yards at 1.86 is projected at 37 yards, a 64% model call, five stars. Woody Marks under 2.5 receptions at 1.86 is projected at 1.6, 64%, and Marks under 13.5 receiving yards at 1.86 is projected at 10.4, 63%, both five stars. Chris Rodriguez Jr. under 0.5 receptions at 1.62 is projected at 0.2, 68%, the highest probability on the sheet. Nico Collins under 5.5 receptions at 2.15 is projected at 5.0, 54%, a four-star lean for those who want a Houston under.

Xavier Hutchinson over 15.5 receiving yards — WR, HOU — at 1.86 — Projected 37 yards against a line that asks for one decent catch. Houston's second option in a game they throw a lot. Game preview
Woody Marks under 2.5 receptions — RB, HOU — at 1.86 — Projected 1.6 catches. The lead back by default, in a game Houston cannot run. Game preview
Chris Rodriguez Jr. under 0.5 receptions — RB, JAX — at 1.62 — Projected 0.2. The second back is a runner, not a receiver. Game preview

Scorers, props and the slips

Bhayshul Tuten to score at 2.20 is a 55% model call against 45.5% implied, five stars on the props board, and he is the Jaguars' lead back, projected at 15.5 carries, even though the grid rates Jacksonville's run game a 62% Houston edge against the third-ranked Houston front. The carries line, Tuten under 16.5 at 2.10, is a four-star at 54% for anyone who wants that side instead. Parker Washington to score at 2.80 is a 39% call against 36%, three stars.

The NFL Parlays page carries two London editions. The Defensive Battle at 11.97 is Lawrence under 230.5 passing yards, Stroud under 245.5, Nico Collins under 75.5 receiving yards and Parker Washington under 59.5 receiving yards, all at 1.86, the model at 16.8% against 8.4% implied, a quarter of a point. The Primetime Parlay at 5.19 is Collins under 75.5 at 1.86, Washington over 49.5 receiving yards at 1.50 and Lawrence under 230.5 at 1.86; the model puts it at 16.9% against 19.3% implied, so it is the one slip on the page we would not play at that price. The Single Game Parlays page has four more. The Defensive Battle at 11.97 runs the same low-scoring script at slightly different lines. The Second Receiver Ceiling at 33.48 is Lawrence over 220.5 passing yards, Jakobi Meyers to score at 4.50 and Meyers over 59.5 receiving yards at 4.00, 6.0% against 3.0%, 0.15 of a point. The One Passing Game at 75 is Lawrence over 220.5, Washington to score at 2.80, Washington over 89.5 receiving yards at 3.60 and Strange over 59.5 at 4.00, 5.6% against 1.3%. The Tight End Day at 122.20 is Lawrence over 220.5, Brenton Strange to score at 4.50, Strange over 59.5 receiving yards and Strange over 5.5 receptions at 3.65, 3.8% against 0.8%. The slip is a script and the single is a line: the over slips need Lawrence to throw, and the unders do not.

Bhayshul Tuten anytime touchdown — RB, JAX — at 2.20 — The lead back, projected at 15.5 carries, against a Houston front that allows 78 yards a game. Game preview
Defensive Battle, HOU @ JAX — Lawrence u230.5 · Stroud u245.5 · Collins u75.5 rec · Washington u59.5 rec — at 11.97 — The published London edition. Four unders on one script: the total is low and the receivers share it. Game preview

The verdict

The market has this one right, and that is a verdict too. Jacksonville by a field goal is the model's number and the market's, so the sides and the total are passes and the game is about the props: the Hutchinson over, the Marks and Rodriguez receptions unders, and Tuten to score. Last week's London lean did not land: the over at 42.5 died in a 36-point game and the Eagles lost by two. This week the London game offers less on the lines and more on the props, and the staking says so.

The FanTeam London contest is £84m for six players and locks at 2:30pm UK. The optimiser captains Trevor Lawrence at £17.0m, with C.J. Stroud as vice-captain at £14.6m, then Bhayshul Tuten (£12.2m, 15.3 projected, the best value among the backs at 1.25 per £1m), Nico Collins, Parker Washington and Xavier Hutchinson at £5.5m for 7.5, 96.9 projected points for £83.1m. The FanTeam optimiser has every contest this week.

Our Best Bets: the Pro page

Our Best Bets are a Pro page: the week's star-rated singles and parlays, every pick graded in public once the game is final. The ledger stands at 62-45, 15.85 points up at a 12.8% return, and Week 5 went nine from ten. The Sunday card goes out on Friday morning.

Put it to work

Best Bets (Pro) Star-rated singles and parlays, every one graded in public: 62-45, +15.85 points, 12.8% ROI.
Texans at Jaguars The game page: model, matchups, injuries and odds, then the box score.
NFL Parlays The two London editions, with every leg and price.
FanTeam Optimiser The London six-player contest, priced against the projection.