Seahawks at Broncos Preview: Week 6 Thursday Night Picks, Odds and Projections

Published October 15, 2026 by Statz NFL.

Two 3-2 teams at Mile High, Seattle the road favourite by two and a half and the model has Denver by four. A big gap between the model and the market, a cornerback who is out, and the props, scorers and slips for Seahawks at Broncos.

Two 3-2 teams, one of them with the best defence in the league

Thursday Night Football in Denver kicks off at 1:15am UK time on Friday morning, 8:15pm Eastern, at Empower Field at Mile High, open air, on grass. Both teams are 3-2 and both had four days. Seattle lost 32-29 at home to the 49ers on Sunday, the game where San Francisco plus the points was a five-star here last week, and have lost twice in their last three. Denver beat the Chargers 23-17 on the road. The market makes Seattle a two-and-a-half-point favourite at a total of 40.5. The full picture is on the game page.

The numbers are a split decision. Seattle allow 267 yards a game, the fewest in the league, and 166.8 passing yards, second; they score 26.8 points a game, eighth. Denver score 19.4, 26th, on 4.8 yards a play, 30th, and 274.6 yards a game, 31st, but allow 22.2 points and 220 passing yards, ninth, against a run defence that gives up 145 a game, 29th. The series is Seattle 2-1 with an average total of 43.3, the last meeting a 26-20 Seahawks win in Week 1 of 2024, and the over is 2-1. Both teams rank in the top ten in the power rankings, Seattle seventh and Denver tenth. Every number for the two sides is on the Seahawks stats and Broncos stats pages.

Where the game is won

The matchup grid is more than the market says. Seattle running against that 29th-ranked Denver run defence is an 80% Seahawks edge, the biggest unit matchup on the field. Denver passing against the Seattle secondary is an 84% Seahawks edge, and Denver running into the Seattle front is 73% Seattle. The one Denver edge is Seattle throwing against the Broncos' pass defence, 59% Denver. Seattle will run it, Denver will struggle to move it, and the question is whether Seattle scoring through the air is as easy as their record says. The Seahawks rushing and Broncos receiving pages show who carries each side.

The injury sheet cuts both ways, and it is the thing to read. Pat Surtain II is out for Denver with an ankle, which is a cornerback of the class a 59% pass-defence edge leans on, along with safety Talanoa Hufanga and linebacker Jonathon Cooper; Riley Moss is questionable with ribs, and so are Reese Taylor and receiver Marvin Mims Jr. Seattle are without linebackers Chazz Surratt and Drake Thomas and cornerback Terrion Arnold, and their backfield is thin: Zach Charbonnet is on the physically-unable list, Jadarian Price is on injured reserve and Jacardia Wright is out, which leaves Emanuel Wilson, projected at 16 carries for 65 yards, and George Holani. Both depth charts are live, and the injury table updates until kick-off.

The model's number

The model has Denver 22.0, Seattle 18.1, a 40.1 total, and the Broncos winning 61 times in 100. The market has Seattle by two and a half. That is six and a half points of disagreement on a side, and at that size the first question is what the market knows that the model does not. The candidate here is Surtain: the Denver pass-defence matchup is the reason the model has Seattle scoring 18 against a season average of 26.8, and how much of that rests on him is the one thing I cannot tell you. The case is still the model's case. Both teams' records against the line are on the Seahawks ATS and Broncos ATS pages.

Denver plus two and a half at 2.02 on Kalshi is a 58.9% model call against 49.5% implied, five stars, and it is a half-point bet given the Surtain caveat. Denver on the moneyline at 2.30 on Kalshi is a 52.4% call against 43.5%, four stars, and a quarter point for those who would rather be paid for the win. The under at 40.5 at 2.02 is a 50% call, one star: the model total is 40.1 and the market has it, so there is no opinion on the total.

Broncos +2.5 v the Seahawks — Spread, SEA @ DEN, Fri 1:15am UK / Thu 8:15pm ET — at 2.02 — The model has Denver by four at home. A cornerback who is out is the reason for the smaller stake. Game preview
Broncos to win — Moneyline, SEA @ DEN — at 2.30 — A 52% shot at better than 5/4 at home against the league's best defence. Game preview

Scorers, props and the slips

The props board is where Denver's receiving corps shows up. Troy Franklin projects at 1.2 catches and 12.6 yards, and Franklin under 18.5 receiving yards at 1.86 is a 64% model call, five stars: Denver's target tree is crowded with Courtland Sutton, Jaylen Waddle and a questionable Mims. The one Denver over on the board is Lil'Jordan Humphrey over 1.5 receiving yards at 1.86, projected at 12.6, a four-star at a line that asks for a single catch.

Seattle's numbers are the unders. Sam Darnold under 220.5 passing yards at 1.86 is projected at 209, 57%, four stars; Darnold under 2.5 carries at 1.74 is projected at 2.2, 61%; Emanuel Wilson under 17.5 carries at 1.83 is projected at 16.1, 59%, and George Holani over 4.5 carries at 1.95 is projected at 5.8, 55%, which is the same view of the Seattle backfield both ways. Jaxon Smith-Njigba to score at 2.00 is a 53% call against 50%, about fair, and projects at 10.7 targets, 7.5 catches and 88 yards; he has scored in four of his last five.

The NFL Parlays page carries two Thursday editions, both a quarter of a point and both built on low scoring. The Primetime Parlay at 15.44 is J.K. Dobbins under 1.5 receptions at 1.64, Courtland Sutton under 3.5 receptions at 1.58, Jaylen Waddle under 4.5 receptions at 1.80, Bo Nix under 206.5 passing yards at 1.86 and AJ Barner over 19.5 receiving yards at 1.78, the model at 17.2% against 6.5% implied. The Defensive Battle at 11.97 is Darnold under 226.5 passing yards, Rashid Shaheed under 22.5 receiving yards, Sutton under 30.5 receiving yards and Nix under 206.5 passing yards, all at 1.86, the model at 18.5% against 8.4%. Nix projects at 192 passing yards, 1.5 touchdowns and 17 rushing yards; Dobbins at 15 carries for 61 yards.

Troy Franklin under 18.5 receiving yards — WR, DEN — at 1.86 — Projected 12.6 yards on 1.2 catches in a crowded target tree. Game preview
Sam Darnold under 220.5 passing yards — QB, SEA — at 1.86 — Projected 209. Seattle run it against the 29th-ranked run defence. Game preview
Defensive Battle, SEA @ DEN — Darnold u226.5 · Shaheed u22.5 rec · Sutton u30.5 rec · Nix u206.5 — at 11.97 — The published Thursday edition. Four unders on one script: both offences struggle. Game preview

The verdict

The model's Denver number is a bold one and it comes with an injury report that could explain why. Denver plus the points at half a point, the Franklin under and the Darnold under on the props, and a quarter on the Broncos outright. The pattern that has cost us is a model that is right on the total and wrong on a side, so the stake is small and the news to watch is Moss and Mims: if either is ruled out before the 1:15am kick-off, the spread is a bet to leave alone.

Last week's Thursday landed. Tampa Bay won 24-16 against the 8.5-point spread, and the plus points and the moneyline at 5.13 both came in.

The FanTeam Thursday contest is £86m for six players and locks at kick-off. The optimiser captains Jaxon Smith-Njigba at £19.2m for 21.0 projected points, with Bo Nix as vice-captain at £13.9m, then Sam Darnold, Emanuel Wilson, Jaylen Waddle and J.K. Dobbins for 97.4 projected points at £83.9m. Dobbins at £9.4m for 10.4 is the best value on the board. The FanTeam optimiser has the rest of the week.

Our Best Bets: the Pro page

Every week's star-rated singles and parlays live on the Best Bets page, a Pro feature, and every pick on it is graded in public once the game is final. The ledger stands at 62-45, 15.85 points up at a 12.8% return, and Week 5 went nine from ten. Thursday's pick is on the page now.

Thursday Night Best Bet — SEA @ DEN · Best Bets, Pro — The pick, its price and the model's reasoning are on the Best Bets page. Best Bets

Put it to work

Best Bets (Pro) Star-rated singles and parlays, every one graded in public: 62-45, +15.85 points, 12.8% ROI.
Seahawks at Broncos The game page: model, matchups, injuries and odds, then the live score.
NFL Parlays The two Thursday editions with every leg and price.
Injuries Moss, Mims and Taylor decide the Denver side before kick-off.