Cowboys at Packers Preview: Week 6 Sunday Night Picks, Odds and Projections

Published October 15, 2026 by Statz NFL.

Four meetings, four overs and a 40-40 tie last year, and the model has this one at 48.5 against a market at 53.5. A Green Bay side with the best-rated pass defence in the game and no running game, and the props, scorers and slips for Cowboys at Packers.

A series that has never gone under, and a total that is five points too high

Sunday night in Green Bay kicks off at 1:20am UK time on Monday morning, 8:20pm Eastern, at Lambeau Field, open air, on grass. Dallas are 2-3 and had ten days after losing 24-16 to Tampa Bay on Thursday last week. Green Bay are 3-2 and won 31-7 against Chicago on Sunday. The market has Green Bay by a point and a half at a total of 53.5, level with Bills at Raiders for the highest of the week, and the history is the reason: the teams have met four times, Green Bay lead 3-0 with the tie, every one of the four has gone over, the average total is 69.3, and last year's meeting finished 40-40.

The numbers say the series is not the game. Dallas score 27.6 points a game, seventh, with the fourth-best third-down rate at 49.2%, and allow 27.2, 25th, and 400 yards a game, 30th. Green Bay score 20.8, 24th, with the worst third-down rate in the league at 27.6%, and allow 22.4, 14th. The Packers are fifth against the pass at 199 yards a game. Neither side runs: Dallas average 81.6 rushing yards a game, 30th, and Green Bay 60.4, last. Full numbers for both sides are on the Cowboys stats and Packers stats pages, and the game page has the model.

Where the game is won

The matchup grid is close to a coin flip on the passing side and a Green Bay edge on the ground. Dallas passing against the Packers' pass defence is a 51% Green Bay edge; Green Bay passing against the Cowboys' secondary is 63% Green Bay. Dallas running into the Green Bay front is a 75% Packers edge, and the one that makes the night odd is Green Bay running against Dallas: the league's worst rushing offence meets the league's worst run defence, 168 yards a game allowed, and the grid calls it an even 50%. The Packers rushing and Cowboys passing pages show the shape of each side.

Josh Jacobs is out for Green Bay and Javon Hargrave is out on the line; Dontayvion Wicks is questionable at receiver. Dallas are without cornerbacks Josh Butler and Caelen Carson. With Jacobs out, MarShawn Lloyd is the Packers' back, projected at about ten fantasy points, and the model projects Jordan Love at 1.6 carries and 5.8 rushing yards. Both depth charts are live and the injury table updates until kick-off.

The model's number

The model has Green Bay 26.9, Dallas 21.6, a 48.5 total, and the Packers winning 66 times in 100. The market has Green Bay by a point and a half, and the total is five points above the model's. Green Bay minus one at 1.92 on BetRivers is a 57.5% call against 49.7% implied, five stars; Green Bay on the moneyline at 1.90 on Kalshi is a 59.1% call against 52.6%, also five stars, and the moneyline is the bet if you cannot get the minus one: take one or the other, not both. The under at 53.5 at 1.94 on Kalshi is a 55% call against 51.5%, four stars, and it is a bet against a series that has gone over four times out of four, so it is a half point and not a point.

The totals logic is the same on both sides of the ball. Dallas are the seventh-best scoring offence in the league against a Packers pass defence that allows 199 yards a game, fifth, and Green Bay cannot run; the model has Dak Prescott at 250 passing yards, 29 under his line, and Love at 242, 35 under his. The prop board agrees with the total: every number it likes in this game is an under.

Packers to win — Moneyline, DAL @ GB, Mon 1:20am UK / Sun 8:20pm ET — at 1.90 — The model has Green Bay by five and a half. Packers minus one at 1.92 on BetRivers is the same bet. Game preview
Under 53.5 points — Total, DAL @ GB — at 1.94 — Model total 48.5. Against a series that has gone over four times in four, so a half point. Game preview

Scorers, props and the slip

Six props on the board are five stars and they are all unders. Jordan Love under 277.5 passing yards at 1.86 is projected at 242, 62%; Love under 7.5 rushing yards at 1.86 is projected at 5.8, 64%; Love under 2.5 carries at 1.76 is projected at 1.6, 66%. Dak Prescott under 278.5 passing yards at 1.86 is projected at 250, 61%. Two receivers: Bo Melton under 16.5 receiving yards at 1.90 is projected at 13, 62%, and Jake Ferguson under 27.5 receiving yards at 1.86 is projected at 22.5, 61%. Every one is a main line.

The scorer board is a fade board. Javonte Williams at 1.45 is a 56% model call priced at 69%; MarShawn Lloyd at 1.64 is a 39% call priced at 61%; CeeDee Lamb at 2.15 is a 36% call priced at 47%. The one scorer the model rates near its price is Christian Watson at 2.20, a 45% call against 45%, and he has scored in four of his last five. The NFL Parlays Sunday-night edition is the Primetime Parlay at 4.55: Javonte Williams under 3.5 receptions at 1.64, George Pickens under 5.5 receptions at 1.68 and Christian Watson over 59.5 receiving yards at 1.65, the model at 30.9% against 22% implied, a quarter of a point: two receptions unders and the Green Bay receiver the model rates. Watson is the one over in a game of unders.

Jordan Love under 277.5 passing yards — QB, GB — at 1.86 — Projected 242. Green Bay cannot run, so Love throws; the model still has him under. Game preview
Dak Prescott under 278.5 passing yards — QB, DAL — at 1.86 — Projected 250 against a pass defence allowing 199 a game. Game preview
Jake Ferguson under 27.5 receiving yards — TE, DAL — at 1.86 — Projected 22.5. Game preview
Primetime Parlay, DAL @ GB — J. Williams u3.5 rec · Pickens u5.5 rec · Watson o59.5 rec — at 4.55 — The published Sunday-night edition. Two receptions unders and the Green Bay receiver the model rates. Game preview

The verdict

Green Bay at home, the total too high, the quarterbacks under. The model's numbers and the market agree that Green Bay are the better team and disagree by about five points on the total, and the series history is the strongest argument against us, so the under is the smaller of the two bets. The news to watch is Wicks and the Dallas secondary: if Dallas are without more in the back four than Butler and Carson, the Packers' number goes up and the under gets thinner.

The FanTeam Sunday-night contest is £95m for six players. The optimiser captains Dak Prescott at £16.9m, with CeeDee Lamb as vice-captain at £17.6m, then Javonte Williams, Christian Watson, Matthew Golden and Ryan Flournoy for 100.2 projected points at £94.9m. George Pickens at £13.2m is the best value on the board at 1.05 points per £1m. The FanTeam optimiser has the week.

Our Best Bets: the Pro page

Our Best Bets are a Pro page: the week's star-rated singles and parlays, every pick graded in public once the game is final. The ledger stands at 62-45, 15.85 points up at a 12.8% return, and Week 5 went nine from ten. The Sunday card goes out on Friday morning.

Put it to work

Best Bets (Pro) Star-rated singles and parlays, every one graded in public: 62-45, +15.85 points, 12.8% ROI.
Cowboys at Packers The game page: model, matchups, injuries and odds, then the live score.
NFL Parlays The Sunday-night Primetime Parlay, with every leg and price.
FanTeam Optimiser The Sunday-night six-player contest, priced against the projection.