When did the 49ers play the Rams in Week 1?

Thursday 10 September 2026, 8:35 PM ET, at Melbourne Cricket Ground.

What was the spread for 49ers vs Rams?

The Rams were 3.5-point favourites at the close, with a total of 47.5 points.

Who won 49ers vs Rams in Week 1?

The 49ers won 27-7 on the road.

Who covered the spread in 49ers vs Rams?

The 49ers covered as 3.5-point underdogs: 49ers 27, Rams 7.

Did 49ers vs Rams go over or under?

Under: 34 points against a total of 47.5.

Who had the most passing yards in 49ers vs Rams?

Brock Purdy (SF): 25/34, 205 yards, 3 TDs.

Who had the most rushing yards in 49ers vs Rams?

Christian McCaffrey (SF): 10 carries, 68 yards.

Who had the most receiving yards in 49ers vs Rams?

Puka Nacua (LAR): 5 receptions, 74 yards.

Who leads the 49ers vs Rams series?

The 49ers lead 11-7 over the 18 games since 2018.

What is the average score when the 49ers play the Rams?

45.8 points a game: the 49ers average 24 and the Rams 21.8 in their 18 meetings since 2018.

49ers at Rams in Melbourne Preview: Thursday Night Picks, Odds and Projections

Published September 7, 2026 by Statz NFL.

The NFL's first game in Australia is an NFC West derby under the roof at the MCG. The model has it closer than the market: the picks, scorers, props and the longshot slip for 49ers at Rams.

A divisional game at the cricket

The Rams are the home team at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Thursday 10 September, 8:35pm Eastern, which is 01:35 BST on Friday morning and a civilised Friday brunch kick-off in Australia. Roof closed, artificial surface, and the first regular-season game the league has ever played there. The novelty is real and so is the football: this is a divisional rivalry the Rams lead 4-2 since 2024, with five of the six meetings going over the total and five of the six covered by Los Angeles. Last November they hung 42 on San Francisco at Levi's; the meeting before that, the 49ers won at SoFi as eight and a half point underdogs.

On 2025 tape this is the league's best offence against the league's best third-down team. The Rams scored 30.5 a game, first in the league, on 402 yards and 6.3 a play, and finished plus 11 in turnovers with 47 sacks. The 49ers scored 25.7 (tenth) and converted 49.8% on third down, the best in football, but finished minus six in turnovers and their pass rush managed 20 sacks, last in the league by a distance. The forward power rankings have the Rams third and the 49ers sixth: two of the six best teams in the model's book, on a neutral field dressed as a home game.

Where the game is won

The matchup grid is loud. Matthew Stafford's passing game, second in the league last season at 275.6 yards a game, against a San Francisco pass defence that ranked 23rd is a 76% Rams edge, the biggest in the game. The counter is nearly as strong: Brock Purdy's passing offence (sixth) against a Rams pass defence that ranked 20th is a 68% 49ers edge. Both teams throw, both secondaries leak, and that is why the model total is up near 48 even with a roof.

The ground game tilts to the Rams. Their rush defence gets a 70% edge over a San Francisco run game that averaged only 107 yards a game (24th), and the model has Kyren Williams at 17.5 carries and 81 yards with 0.8 touchdowns, the clearest workhorse role in the game. The 49ers backfield is the story on the other side: Isaac Guerendo is on the PUP list and the model projects Christian McCaffrey at 8.6 carries and 38.7 yards with 2.9 catches. That is not the McCaffrey the market remembers, and his lines (58.5 rushing yards, 4.5 receptions) are set for the old one. The model clears the rushing line 19 times in 100 and the receptions line 12. Either that projection is wrong about his role, or those are the two best unders on the board. Check the Thursday depth chart before deciding which.

The Rams injury report has quality on it: tackle Alaric Jackson and both Myles Garrett and Kobie Turner are questionable on the defensive line. If Garrett does not travel, the 49ers passing edge grows and so does the case for the dog.

The model's number

Rams 25.0, 49ers 22.7. Los Angeles by 2.4, a 47.7 total, and the Rams winning 57 times in 100. The market has the Rams by three and a half, a 48.5 total and a home moneyline of 1.55, which implies 63.9%. The model is a full point closer on the spread and seven points lower on the win probability.

San Francisco plus three and a half at 1.98 on Kalshi is a 54.7% call against 50.5% implied, three stars, and it is the main bet. The under 48.5 at 1.94 on Polymarket is 54.4% against 51.5%, three stars as well, and I would split a unit across the pair. The 49ers moneyline at 2.90 carries a raw edge of nearly ten points (44.4% model against 34.5% implied) and zero stars. So it is a lean and a small one. If you like the dog, take the points.

49ers +3.5 v the Rams — Spread, SF @ LAR, Thu 8:35pm ET / Fri 01:35 BST — at 1.98 — Model has it a 2.4-point game. A neutral-site divisional game with a hook on the right side of three. Game preview
Under 48.5 points — Total, SF @ LAR — at 1.94 — Model total 47.7. A small edge, but the roof and a travelling week take the top off the shootout. Game preview
49ers to win — Moneyline, SF @ LAR — at 2.90 — A big gap to the market at zero stars. A quarter point, or nothing. Game preview

Scorers, props and the slip

Davante Adams is the star-rated scorer: 0.69 projected touchdowns and a model probability of 49.6% against 45.5% implied at 2.20, just under three stars. Puka Nacua projects 9.4 targets and 83.6 yards as the Rams' lead receiver and the model has him scoring 67 times in 100 at 2.05, which is a better price than the Adams one on the raw numbers but misses the star rating. Kyren Williams, at 0.8 projected touchdowns, is the shortest scorer in the game and the safest. For San Francisco, Mike Evans (44 yards, 0.4 touchdowns) and George Kittle (38 yards) split the targets with McCaffrey, and Purdy himself at 7.00 is a live rushing-score price at 33%.

On the yardage lines, Tyler Higbee over 11.5 receiving yards at 1.90 is the softest number on the board: the model projects 35.8 and clears it 80 times in 100. Stafford projects 261.8 passing yards against a 264.5 line, a genuine coin flip, and the Nacua receiving line of 87.5 sits just above his 83.6 projection, so the single prop leans under by a hair. Which brings us to the slip.

The Single Game Parlays engine has published one slip for this game: Second Receiver Ceiling, Stafford over 264.5 passing yards with Nacua to score and Nacua over 87.5 receiving yards, at 7.40. The model gives it 18.7%, because if Stafford throws for 265 the yards and the touchdown come with him; the price implies 13.5%. That is why the Nacua over lives in the slip and the Nacua under lives on the single: one is a script, the other is a line. Quarter of a point.

Davante Adams anytime TD — WR, LAR — at 2.20 — 0.69 projected touchdowns in the league's best offence against the 23rd-ranked pass defence. Game preview
Tyler Higbee over 11.5 receiving yards — TE, LAR — at 1.90 — Projected 35.8 yards on 4.2 targets. A line for a blocker on a player the model has catching three passes. Game preview
Second Receiver Ceiling slip — Stafford o264.5 pass yds + Nacua TD + Nacua o87.5 rec yds — at 7.40 — Three legs, one script. Game preview

The verdict

Rams by a field goal or less in a game that lands just under the number. Take the 49ers with the points, half a point on the under, and keep the dog moneyline to a quarter or leave it. The Garrett and Turner designations are the Thursday news to watch: two questionable pass rushers on a five-day turnaround and a 20-hour flight is exactly the kind of thing a line moves on.

Put it to work

Game page: 49ers at Rams Live lines, the model's edge table and the full prop board for Melbourne.
Single Game Parlays The published slip.
Injuries Garrett, Turner and Jackson designations as they update.