Two clubs go up from League One automatically and four more go to the play-offs. With most sides 13 or 14 games in, the top six are Huddersfield Town, Stockport County, Oxford United, Luton Town, Plymouth Argyle and Reading. On the chances each side has created and allowed, four of those six belong there and two do not.
Huddersfield and Stockport lead the division on chances as well as on points. Oxford, third, have 9.0 points more than their play deserves, by far the widest gap in League One. Sheffield Wednesday and Leicester City, ninth and tenth, have played better than Oxford and Plymouth. And at the bottom, only Bromley are in the relegation places on points and on the chances.
Expected points are what a club would have if every chance it created and allowed had been finished at an average rate, and the gap to real points shows who has had help. Every figure comes from our League One stats, xG table and standings, league games only. The full team-by-team lists are in The League One Season So Far.
After 13 or 14 games, league only. Exp is expected points; Rank is where that puts them
| Club | Pts | Exp | Gap | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield Town | 29 | 28.2 | +0.8 | 1st |
| Stockport County | 26 | 27.5 | -1.5 | 2nd |
| Oxford United | 26 | 17.0 | +9.0 | 13th |
| Luton Town | 24 | 25.2 | -1.2 | 3rd |
| Plymouth Argyle | 23 | 19.6 | +3.4 | 9th |
| Reading | 22 | 24.4 | -2.4 | 4th |
Huddersfield Town are the one club whose position and play match completely. They have 29 points from 28.2 expected, the most expected goals in League One (2.2 a game) and the fewest against (1.01, with Bradford City next on 1.04). They create 4.8 big chances a game, with Reading next on 3.5, and allow 1.1, the fewest. Their shots are the best placed in the division, with 78.4% taken from inside the box.
Joe Taylor has 10 goals from chances worth 8.1, and Derensili Sanches Fernandes has 7 goals, the division's most assists (6) and the most big chances created (10). Huddersfield have lost once in 14 games and are unbeaten in their last five. The one complaint is five draws.
Stockport County are second on the table and second on the football, a point and a half short of their expected points (26 against 27.5). They have the second-most possession (62.4%) after Leicester City, take more shots than anyone (17.1 a game) and allow the fewest (9.1). They are also the cleanest side in the division, with the fewest fouls (8.1 a game) and the fewest yellow cards (1.1).
Oliver Norwood, 35, has created 40 chances, the most in League One, and Ben Osborn has created 31. Kyle Wootton has 9 goals from chances worth 8.4 and has taken more shots than any player in the division (52). Where they differ from Huddersfield is the quality of the chances rather than the number: Stockport create 2.6 big chances a game to Huddersfield's 4.8. They have lost four of their 14.
Oxford United are third on 26 points from 13 games, with one defeat. On the chances they have created and allowed they would have 17.0, the 13th-best total in the division. The gap of 9.0 is by far the widest in League One, with Leyton Orient next on 3.9. When we looked on 12 October, in our stats review, it was 5.2.
The back line is where it comes from. Oxford have let in 11 goals from chances worth 22.2, the biggest saving in the division, while facing 15.2 shots a game, the fifth most. Their chances made and allowed (18.8 for, 22.2 against) come out behind, yet their goal difference is plus 11. A good goalkeeper and a defence that blocks shots would explain some of that, and our numbers cannot tell those apart from luck.
Chances is what the shots against were worth. Plus means fewer goals than the chances
| Club | Let in | Chances | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford United | 11 | 22.2 | +11.2 |
| Leyton Orient | 14 | 22.3 | +8.3 |
| Bradford City | 8 | 13.5 | +5.5 |
| Luton Town | 21 | 16.6 | -4.4 |
| Bromley | 33 | 27.6 | -5.4 |
Our testing points the same way. Across 1,245 fixtures, sides whose results ran more than half a goal a game ahead of their chances went on to win 3.2 percentage points less often than our model rated them. Oxford are running 1.1 goals a game ahead, more than double that line. That is a reason to be careful with them, not a forecast.
Plymouth Argyle, fifth, are 3.4 points ahead of their chances, with 21 scored and 19 conceded. Bradford City, seventh, are 2.9 ahead for a different reason. They have kept nine clean sheets in 13 games, the most in the division, but scored only 10 goals, from chances worth 16.1.
On expected points the next four behind the top two are Luton Town (25.2), Reading (24.4), Leicester City (22.4) and Sheffield Wednesday (20.7). Luton and Reading are already in the top six, on 1.2 and 2.4 fewer points than their play deserves. Luton convert 13.2% of their shots, the best rate in the division, and have won three penalties, joint most with Sheffield Wednesday. At the back they have let in 21 from chances worth 16.6 and kept two clean sheets.
Reading have the second-most big chances in the league (3.5 a game). Jack Marriott has 8 goals in nine appearances, and Lewis Wing, who has played every minute, has created 30 chances.
Leicester City have the biggest gap between points and play in the top half of the table. They are tenth on 19 points from 13 games but fifth on expected points, with the most possession in League One (66.4%) and the most passes (613.7 a game). Luke Thomas and Sammy Braybrooke have 4 assists each. Sheffield Wednesday, ninth on 20, have the third-highest expected goals a game (1.9).
A. Collins has 13 goals in 13 games, the most in League One by three, and 13 of Milton Keynes Dons' 22 league goals. The chances he has had were worth 5.55, the biggest over-performance of any player with 600 minutes or more. Milton Keynes Dons are 12th on 18 points and seventh on expected points, and have won their last three.
The next scorers are closer to their chances: Taylor and Wootton are within two goals of theirs, and Marriott is 3.6 above. The full lists are on the player stats page.
League games only
| Player | Club | Total |
|---|---|---|
| A. Collins | Milton Keynes Dons | 13 goals |
| Joe Taylor | Huddersfield Town | 10 goals |
| Kyle Wootton | Stockport County | 9 goals |
| Jack Marriott | Reading | 8 goals |
| Derensili Sanches Fernandes | Huddersfield Town | 6 assists |
| Oliver Norwood | Stockport County | 40 chances |
Bradford City commit the most fouls in League One (15.0 a game) and Notts County collect the most yellow cards (2.8). Oxford United have the most red cards (3) and win the most fouls (14.5 a game), with Siriki Dembélé fouled 35 times. Only Reggie Walsh of Wigan Athletic, 18, has been fouled more (39).
League games only
| Club | Fouls | Yellows |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford City | 15.0 | 2.1 |
| Notts County | 14.7 | 2.8 |
| Barnsley | 13.9 | 2.3 |
| Wigan Athletic | 10.6 | 2.6 |
| Stockport County | 8.1 | 1.1 |
Thomas of Leicester and Jaze Kabia of Leyton Orient have each committed 26 fouls, the most of any player, and eleven players share the most yellow cards (five each), including Paudie O'Connor of Reading and Antoni Sarcevic of Bradford City. For anyone building fouls and cards bets, that is the starting list, and the team pages show the rest: Bradford fouls, Notts County yellow cards and Oxford red cards. For the day's picks, see our bet builder tips.
The bottom four on points are Wigan Athletic, Peterborough United, Barnsley and Bromley. The lowest three on expected points are Bromley (9.1), AFC Wimbledon (12.4) and Leyton Orient (13.1). Only Bromley are on both lists.
Bromley are the weakest side in League One by the chances: the fewest expected goals created (0.9 a game), the most allowed (2.1), 34.8% of the ball and 18.0 shots against a game. They have let in 33 goals, ten more than any other club. Their 9 points match their 9.1 expected, so there is no bad luck to point to.
Pos is league position; Exp is expected points
| Club | Pos | Pts | Exp | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient | 14th | 17 | 13.1 | +3.9 |
| AFC Wimbledon | 18th | 13 | 12.4 | +0.6 |
| Wigan Athletic | 21st | 11 | 15.1 | -4.1 |
| Peterborough United | 22nd | 10 | 16.9 | -6.9 |
| Barnsley | 23rd | 9 | 15.6 | -6.6 |
| Bromley | 24th | 9 | 9.1 | -0.1 |
Peterborough and Barnsley are different. They are 6.9 and 6.6 points short of their expected points, which rank them 14th and 16th. Peterborough have scored 11 from chances worth 19.9, the biggest shortfall in League One, and Harry Leonard has 3 goals from 48 shots. Wimbledon and Orient are the reverse: 18th and 14th on points, 23rd and 22nd on expected points, with Wimbledon's 9 goals in 13 games the fewest in the division.
Three things to look for when League One returns. First, whether Oxford's results keep pace with their chances. Second, whether Stockport, with the best shot numbers in the division, close the gap to Huddersfield. Third, whether Leicester and Sheffield Wednesday climb into the places their play says they should be. The fixtures, standings and power rankings update after every game.
Huddersfield Town are the best team in League One after 14 games on the chances they create and allow: 29 points from 28.2 expected, with the most expected goals (2.2 a game) and the fewest against (1.01). Stockport County are second on expected points.
Huddersfield Town lead League One on 29 points after 14 games, three clear of Stockport County and Oxford United on 26. They have lost once, drawn five and are unbeaten in their last five, while Oxford have played one game fewer.
A. Collins of Milton Keynes Dons is the League One top scorer with 13 goals in 13 appearances. Joe Taylor of Huddersfield Town has 10, Kyle Wootton of Stockport County 9, and Derensili Sanches Fernandes leads for assists with 6.
Oxford United are the most flattered League One team, with 26 points against 17.0 expected, a gap of 9.0. Leyton Orient (+3.9) and Plymouth Argyle (+3.4) are next. Across 1,245 fixtures, flattered sides then won 3.2 percentage points less often than rated.