Twelve League One games on Saturday, and the biggest gap between chances and goals came at the King Power Stadium. Leicester City had 3.2 expected goals, 20 shots and 70 per cent of the ball against Peterborough United and lost 3-1. Peterborough scored three from 1.5 xG.
Reading won 5-1 at Milton Keynes Dons on 2.8 xG to 0.9, Cambridge United and Stevenage both won 1-0 on heavy chance counts, and Wycombe Wanderers lost 4-1 to Luton Town on a near-even 2.2 to 2.7. This review goes through what the numbers said, which clubs the table is flattering, and what Thursday and Saturday ask.
Expected goals (xG) adds up the quality of every chance a team creates, so a side with 2.0 xG got itself into scoring positions about twice over. The twelve games below are ordered by how far the scoreline sat from the chance count.
Ordered by how far the scoreline sat from the chance count
| Match | Score | xG | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester City v Peterborough United | 1-3 | 3.2-1.5 | 20-13 |
| Wycombe Wanderers v Luton Town | 1-4 | 2.2-2.7 | 18-14 |
| Milton Keynes Dons v Reading | 1-5 | 0.9-2.8 | 11-13 |
| Doncaster Rovers v Burton Albion | 1-0 | 0.7-1.1 | 15-20 |
| Stockport County v Barnsley | 3-1 | 2.1-1.3 | 16-18 |
| Bradford City v Leyton Orient | 0-0 | 1.2-0.3 | 9-9 |
| Stevenage v Wigan Athletic | 1-0 | 2.0-0.2 | 15-6 |
| Notts County v Oxford United | 1-2 | 0.8-1.1 | 10-13 |
| Huddersfield Town v Sheffield Wednesday | 2-2 | 1.4-2.1 | 10-15 |
| Plymouth Argyle v AFC Wimbledon | 2-1 | 2.3-1.6 | 18-14 |
| Cambridge United v Blackpool | 1-0 | 2.4-1.1 | 24-6 |
| Mansfield Town v Bromley | 2-1 | 2.2-1.3 | 21-9 |
Leicester City made 4 big chances to Peterborough's 1, took 20 shots to 13 and still conceded three, scoring once from 3.2 xG. They are 17th on 9 points, 3.2 short of their expected total. Peterborough United's three came from 1.5 xG, which is out of character: their seven goals in nine games have come from chances worth 13.5, a shortfall of 6.5 that is the largest in League One.
Reading won 5-1 at Milton Keynes Dons from 2.8 xG to 0.9 and 6 big chances to 2. Reading have scored 22 goals this season, the most in League One, from chances worth 18.4. MK Dons are 23rd on 6 points, 4.7 below their expected total.
Cambridge United beat Blackpool 1-0 on 2.4 xG to 1.1, with 24 shots to 6 and 73 per cent of the ball. Stevenage beat Wigan Athletic 1-0 on 2.0 to 0.2, 15 shots to 6. Wigan have 4 points from eight games against 9.8 expected, the biggest points shortfall in the division at -5.8, and 5 goals from 11.3 xG.
Oxford United are the most flattered side: 14 points from seven games against 8.8 expected, and 15 goals from chances worth 8.7, an overshoot of +6.3. They won 2-1 at Notts County on a modest 1.1 xG to 0.8. At the top, Plymouth Argyle lead on 19 points, 3.5 above expected after a 2-1 win over Wimbledon, while Huddersfield Town have created the most in the division (18.9 xG) and sit 4th on 16.
The four biggest gaps each way, over first
| Team | Pts | xPts | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford United | 14 | 8.8 | +5.2 |
| Bradford City | 17 | 13.0 | +4.0 |
| Cambridge United | 16 | 12.4 | +3.6 |
| Leyton Orient | 11 | 7.4 | +3.6 |
| Wigan Athletic | 4 | 9.8 | -5.8 |
| Milton Keynes Dons | 6 | 10.7 | -4.7 |
| Leicester City | 9 | 12.2 | -3.2 |
| Notts County | 7 | 10.1 | -3.1 |
League One is back on Thursday with Mansfield Town against Oxford United, the most flattered side in the division. Saturday's full round has the pairings that set the numbers against each other: Peterborough United, with the biggest finishing shortfall, against Burton Albion, who have scored 14 goals from chances worth 8.3 and lost 1-0 at Doncaster on Saturday despite 20 shots to 15; Plymouth Argyle, top on points, against Huddersfield Town, top on chances; and Wigan Athletic, the biggest points shortfall, against Reading, the division's top scorers. The table shows each side's gap between points and expected points going in.
Points minus expected points for each side, going in
| Match | Home gap | Away gap |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield Town v Oxford United | +1.1 | +5.2 |
| Peterborough United v Burton Albion | -3.1 | +2.1 |
| Milton Keynes Dons v Luton Town | -4.7 | -2.9 |
| Wigan Athletic v Reading | -5.8 | -2.4 |
| Leicester City v Doncaster Rovers | -3.2 | -2.7 |
| Plymouth Argyle v Huddersfield Town | +3.5 | -1.7 |
Expected-goals gaps describe what has happened, and they are a thin guide to what happens next. We have measured both halves of the idea across 1,245 fixtures. Sides running more than half a goal a game ahead of their chances went on to win 3.2 percentage points less often than our model rated them. Sides running behind by the same margin won 0.8 percentage points more often, which is within the noise. The sensible reading of the table above is caution about the flattered, and no particular reason to back the unlucky. Four separate xG angles we tested against match markets also came out negative, so none of this is a betting system, and nine or ten games is a small sample for any of it.
The full League One xG table updates after every round, alongside the team stats, player xG and the standings. For the wider picture, our League One season so far review ranks every club, and the October xG table looks at the month ahead.