Lazio go into the international break top of Serie A, unbeaten, with nine wins and two draws for 29 points. They are not the best team in the league. Inter, a point behind on 28, have played better football, and so have Roma, two behind on 27.
After eleven games, Lazio's chances are worth 16.9 expected points, the eighth best in Serie A, and our Power Rankings have them seventh. Inter are first on both lists and Roma are second. Lazio's points are 12.1 above their expected points, by far the widest gap in the division.
Expected points are what a club would have if every chance it created and allowed had been finished at an average rate. We flagged Lazio's lead in our five-league xG tables on 28 October, when they had 25 points from nine games and a gap of 10.6. Two games later it is 12.1. Figures are from our Serie A stats, xG table and player ratings, league games only; the team-by-team lists are in The Serie A Season So Far.
After 11 games, league only. Exp is expected points
Lazio have scored 25 from chances worth 17.3 and conceded 9, the fewest in Serie A, from chances worth 14.2. That is 7.7 goals more than the chances suggest and 5.2 fewer conceded. AC Milan are next on the gap, at +6.7.
The football underneath is ordinary for a leader. Lazio take 13.9 shots a game, the 10th most in the division, and convert 16.3% of them, second only to AC Milan (18.3%). Mattia Zaccagni, 31, has five assists, second in Serie A, and Gustav Isaksen has four goals from chances worth 1.57.
None of this means Lazio will fall away. We tested the idea over 1,245 fixtures: clubs whose results ran more than half a goal a game ahead of their chances went on to win 3.2 percentage points less often than our model rated them. Clubs running behind by the same margin gained 0.8, which is noise. A lean against the flattered is the only half that held.
Inter lead Serie A for shots (21.3 a game), expected goals (2.6 a game) and big chances created (4.9). They concede the fewest shots (9.8 a game) and the second-lowest expected goals against, behind only Juventus. Their 25.0 expected points are 3.4 more than anyone else's, and their 28 are only 3.0 above that, the smallest gap in the top six.
They have also hit the woodwork 10 times, more than any other side, and lost only once, with nine wins and a draw. Nicolò Barella has created nine big chances, more than any player in Serie A. Marcus Thuram has six goals from chances worth 5.7, so there is no luck in that number, and Carlos Augusto is the best-rated left-back in the league (7.55).
Roma are unbeaten too, with eight wins and three draws. They have scored the most goals in Serie A (31, or 2.8 a game), have the best goal difference (+21) and the most clean sheets (six). The chances back it: Roma are second for expected goals (25.5) and second for expected points (21.6). Their 27 points are 5.4 above that, so they have had some help, but far less than Lazio.
Donyell Malen has eight goals from chances worth 8.5, so he is finishing right on his chances, and his rate of 1.10 goals per 90 minutes is the highest in Serie A among players with 600 minutes. Paulo Dybala, 32, is the second-highest-rated player in the league (7.77) from only six appearances, and has created 25 chances, seven of them big, in them.
Roma also own the best-rated player at four of the ten positions: Dybala (striker), MatÃas Soulé (right wing), Mario Hermoso (centre-back) and Emanuele Lulli (right-back). Three of the top seven in our player ratings are theirs, with Manu Koné the third.
Our August preview projected Frosinone for 18th and relegation in 52.7% of simulations. After eleven games they have 20 points, six wins and sixth place. They are the oddest team in the division: they shoot a lot, hardly pass and concede more chances than anyone.
Per game, league games only
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 20.1 | second most |
| Passes | 337 | fewest |
| Tackles | 20.3 | most |
| Fouls | 14.5 | most |
| Expected goals against | 2.1 | most |
The attack is real, third for expected goals (20.9). The defence has had help. Frosinone have conceded 15 goals from chances worth 23.3, 8.3 fewer, the largest gap in Serie A, and their 20 points are 5.5 above expected. Our Power Rankings put them eleventh, not sixth. More on the numbers at Frosinone's expected goals page.
Then there is Giacomo Calò. The 29-year-old defensive midfielder is the highest-rated player in Serie A (7.86) and has created 47 chances, 21 more than anyone else. He has sent in 90 crosses, also the most, and scored five goals, one a penalty, from chances worth 2.76. Antonio Raimondo, 22, has eight goals for the same side, level second in Serie A.
Juventus are seventh on 18 points and third on expected points. They concede the fewest chances in the division (0.9 expected goals against a game, 0.7 big chances) and have kept five clean sheets, but they have scored 15 and only 56.1% of their shots come from inside the box, the lowest share in Serie A. Napoli are 10th and fourth on expected points, with the second-fewest big chances conceded.
After 11 games, league only. Exp is expected points
| Club | Pos | Pts | Exp | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus | 7th | 18 | 19.7 | -1.7 |
| Napoli | 10th | 15 | 18.4 | -3.4 |
| Fiorentina | 15th | 9 | 16.8 | -7.8 |
| Monza | 18th | 7 | 14.6 | -7.6 |
| Venezia | 19th | 6 | 12.8 | -6.8 |
Fiorentina are furthest below: 9 points from 16.8, with 25 conceded from chances worth 17.9 and no clean sheet. Franco Mastantuono, 19, has taken 44 shots, second only to Nico Paz of Como (46). Venezia have scored eight goals from chances worth 15.7, the biggest shortfall in the league, and convert 5.3% of their shots, the lowest rate. At Monza, Gustavo Miguel Pereira de Sousa Varela leads Serie A with nine goals from chances worth 4.5. Running behind is not a promise of recovery, and our testing found no reliable bounce for clubs in that position.
The bottom three today are Udinese (5 points), Venezia (6) and Monza (7), with Parma and Sassuolo on 8. On expected points the bottom three would be Parma (9.0), Udinese (10.8) and Cagliari (11.3).
Parma have the fewest shots (10.0 a game), the least possession (40.1%) and concede the most shots (19.5). Udinese have won once, concede the most big chances (4.1 a game) and have lost four of their last five. Sassuolo have lost five in a row and let in 29 goals, the most in the league.
Cagliari are the odd one. They are ninth on 16 points, ahead of Napoli, but their chances say 18th: 40.4% possession, 18.9 shots conceded a game (the second most) and 10 goals scored. They are 4.7 points above their expected total.
Frosinone commit the most fouls in Serie A (14.5 a game) and make the most tackles, with Lecce (13.9) and Bologna (13.1) next. Gabriele Bracaglia of Frosinone has five yellow cards, one more than anyone else, and Fiorentina collect the most as a team (2.2 a game).
Bologna are also the most fouled side (14.3 a game) and have won three penalties, the most in the league. Nicolò Cambiaghi has been fouled 35 times, 10 more than anyone else, and Lewis Ferguson has committed the most fouls (23).
For anyone building fouls and cards bets, that is the starting list, and the team pages show the rest: Frosinone fouls, Bologna fouls, Fiorentina yellow cards. For the day's picks, see our bet builder tips.
Gustavo Miguel Pereira de Sousa Varela is the top scorer, a 21-year-old with nine goals for 18th-placed Monza. Juan Miranda of Bologna is a left-back with six assists, the most in the league. Nico Paz has taken more shots than anyone (46). The full lists are on the player stats page and the player xG board.
League games only
| Player | Club | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Varela | Monza | 9 goals |
| Antonio Raimondo | Frosinone | 8 goals |
| Donyell Malen | Roma | 8 goals |
| Juan Miranda | Bologna | 6 assists |
| Giacomo Calò | Frosinone | 47 chances created |
| Nicolò Barella | Inter | 9 big chances created |
When the league returns, look for three things. First, whether Lazio's results keep running ahead of their chances. Second, whether Inter turn the best chances in the league into a lead. Third, whether Frosinone keep conceding fewer goals than the chances against them. The fixtures, standings and power rankings update after every game.
Inter are the best team in Serie A after 11 games on the chances they create and allow: 28 points from 25.0 expected, with the most shots (21.3 a game) and big chances (4.9). Roma are second on expected points (21.6).
Lazio lead Serie A on 29 points after 11 games, unbeaten with nine wins and two draws, a point clear of Inter and two clear of Roma. Their chances are worth 16.9 expected points, so they are 12.1 above, the widest gap in the league.
Gustavo Miguel Pereira de Sousa Varela of Monza is the Serie A top scorer with 9 goals in 10 appearances, one ahead of Donyell Malen of Roma and Antonio Raimondo of Frosinone on 8. Juan Miranda of Bologna leads for assists with 6 after 11 games.
Lazio are the most flattered Serie A team, 12.1 points above expected, then AC Milan (+6.7), Frosinone (+5.5) and Roma (+5.4). Fiorentina (-7.8) and Monza (-7.6) are furthest below. Our testing over 1,245 fixtures found flattered sides then won 3.2 percentage points less often than rated.