No, Vitória have taken 38 points over 32 Campeonato Brasileiro games in 2026, within 0.88 of the 37.12 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Vitória create 1.03 expected goals (xG) per game over 32 Campeonato Brasileiro games in 2026, 33.06 in all, and have scored 35 goals from those chances, 1.94 more than that xG would expect.
Vitória allow 1.44 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 32 Campeonato Brasileiro games in 2026, 46.16 in all, and have conceded 46 goals from those chances, 0.16 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Renê has the most expected goals (xG) for Vitória over 32 Campeonato Brasileiro games in 2026, 6.46 xG in 24 appearances, and has scored 10 goals; Renato Kayzer is next with 4.70 xG.
Vitória's results and their chances agree, within 0.9 points of xPts over 32 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/ | 32 | 33.06 | 35 | +1.94 | 46.16 | 46 | +0.16 | 37.12 | 38 | +0.88 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 12.54 | 13 | +0.46 | 14.74 | 13 | +1.74 | 12.90 | 12 | -0.90 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.60 | 8 | +1.40 | 6.22 | 7 | -0.78 | 7.19 | 5 | -2.19 |
| Home | 16 | 20.60 | 23 | +2.40 | 17.59 | 13 | +4.59 | 24.52 | 32 | +7.48 |
| Away | 16 | 12.46 | 12 | -0.46 | 28.57 | 33 | -4.43 | 12.60 | 6 | -6.60 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct | Campeonato Brasileiro | Athletico PR (H) | 1-1 | 1.72 | 0.57 | 2.19 | 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | Campeonato Brasileiro | Corinthians (A) | 1-1 | 0.78 | 1.99 | 0.62 | 1 | L |
| 11 Oct | Campeonato Brasileiro | São Paulo (A) | 2-1 | 1.11 | 2.14 | 0.77 | 0 | L |
| 7 Oct | Campeonato Brasileiro | Chapecoense (H) | 4-0 | 2.20 | 0.47 | 2.48 | 3 | W |
| 20 Sep | Campeonato Brasileiro | Cruzeiro (H) | 1-3 | 0.79 | 1.05 | 1.13 | 0 | L |
| 13 Sep | Campeonato Brasileiro | Mirassol (A) | 2-2 | 0.69 | 1.76 | 0.65 | 1 | L |
| 7 Sep | Campeonato Brasileiro | Grêmio (H) | 1-0 | 1.57 | 0.64 | 2.04 | 3 | W |
| 29 Aug | Campeonato Brasileiro | Atlético-MG (A) | 2-1 | 0.65 | 1.66 | 0.66 | 0 | L |
| 23 Aug | Campeonato Brasileiro | Bahia (H) | 0-2 | 0.67 | 3.39 | 0.20 | 0 | L |
| 16 Aug | Campeonato Brasileiro | Botafogo (H) | 1-0 | 2.36 | 1.07 | 2.16 | 3 | W |
| 9 Aug | Campeonato Brasileiro | Flamengo (A) | 2-0 | 0.21 | 1.37 | 0.44 | 0 | L |
| 30 Jul | Campeonato Brasileiro | Palmeiras (H) | 0-4 | 0.52 | 1.57 | 0.61 | 0 | L |
| 26 Jul | Campeonato Brasileiro | Remo (A) | 2-0 | 1.18 | 0.71 | 1.71 | 0 | W |
| 23 Jul | Campeonato Brasileiro | Botafogo (A) | 0-0 | 0.37 | 1.33 | 0.60 | 1 | L |
| 16 Jul | Campeonato Brasileiro | Vasco (H) | 1-0 | 0.79 | 0.78 | 1.33 | 3 | D |
| 30 May | Campeonato Brasileiro | Santos (A) | 3-1 | 1.18 | 0.57 | 1.84 | 0 | W |
| 23 May | Campeonato Brasileiro | Internacional (H) | 2-0 | 0.67 | 2.39 | 0.42 | 3 | L |
| 17 May | Campeonato Brasileiro | Bragantino (A) | 2-0 | 0.73 | 3.11 | 0.28 | 0 | L |
| 9 May | Campeonato Brasileiro | Fluminense (A) | 2-2 | 1.59 | 1.02 | 1.77 | 1 | W |
| 2 May | Campeonato Brasileiro | Coritiba (H) | 4-1 | 1.85 | 0.53 | 2.29 | 3 | W |
| 26 Apr | Campeonato Brasileiro | Athletico PR (A) | 3-1 | 0.60 | 4.02 | 0.12 | 0 | L |
| 18 Apr | Campeonato Brasileiro | Corinthians (H) | 0-0 | 0.82 | 0.23 | 1.86 | 1 | W |
| 11 Apr | Campeonato Brasileiro | São Paulo (H) | 2-0 | 0.97 | 0.94 | 1.36 | 3 | W |
| 5 Apr | Campeonato Brasileiro | Chapecoense (A) | 1-1 | 1.72 | 2.05 | 1.20 | 1 | L |
| 1 Apr | Campeonato Brasileiro | Cruzeiro (A) | 3-0 | 0.12 | 1.70 | 0.26 | 0 | L |
| 22 Mar | Campeonato Brasileiro | Mirassol (H) | 1-0 | 0.86 | 0.90 | 1.30 | 3 | L |
| 19 Mar | Campeonato Brasileiro | Grêmio (A) | 2-0 | 0.44 | 1.14 | 0.76 | 0 | L |
| 14 Mar | Campeonato Brasileiro | Atlético-MG (H) | 2-0 | 0.57 | 1.22 | 0.82 | 3 | L |
| 11 Mar | Campeonato Brasileiro | Bahia (A) | 1-1 | 0.46 | 1.92 | 0.43 | 1 | L |
| 11 Feb | Campeonato Brasileiro | Flamengo (H) | 1-2 | 1.52 | 0.38 | 2.24 | 0 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renê | attacker | 24 | 1681 | 6.46 | 10 | +3.54 | 0.35 |
| Erick | attacker | 30 | 2177 | 3.33 | 5 | +1.67 | 0.14 |
| Ramon | defender | 20 | 1708 | 0.68 | 2 | +1.32 | 0.04 |
| Matheuzinho | midfielder | 29 | 1868 | 3.82 | 5 | +1.18 | 0.18 |
| Dudu Rodrigues | midfielder | 3 | 167 | 0.14 | 1 | +0.86 | 0.08 |
| Baralhas | midfielder | 18 | 1537 | 1.45 | 2 | +0.55 | 0.08 |
| Emmanuel Martínez | midfielder | 26 | 1997 | 0.50 | 1 | +0.50 | 0.02 |
| Cacá | defender | 23 | 1973 | 0.69 | 1 | +0.31 | 0.03 |
| Renato Kayzer | attacker | 23 | 917 | 4.70 | 5 | +0.30 | 0.46 |
| Fabrício do Rosário dos Santos | attacker | 13 | 228 | 0.84 | 1 | +0.16 | 0.33 |
| Zé Vitor | midfielder | 21 | 1341 | 0.95 | 1 | +0.05 | 0.06 |
| Diego Tarzia | attacker | 26 | 1189 | 1.97 | 2 | +0.03 | 0.15 |
| Lucas Rodrigues | attacker | 9 | 171 | 0.55 | 0 | -0.55 | 0.29 |
| Marinho | attacker | 14 | 375 | 0.88 | 0 | -0.88 | 0.21 |
| Mateusinho | defender | 12 | 735 | 1.00 | 0 | -1.00 | 0.12 |
| Luan Cândido | defender | 24 | 1985 | 1.21 | 0 | -1.21 | 0.05 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 32 | 46.4 | 56 | 31.9 | 22 | 51.9 | 69 | +17.1 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 31 | 53.7 | 61 | 31.6 | 25 | 55.9 | 67 | +11.1 |
| 3 | Athletico PR | 32 | 42.8 | 50 | 37.9 | 38 | 46.9 | 54 | +7.1 |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 32 | 46.4 | 51 | 41.8 | 46 | 48 | 54 | +6 |
| 5 | Coritiba | 31 | 33.1 | 38 | 49.1 | 49 | 33.5 | 39 | +5.5 |
| 6 | Fluminense | 32 | 43.6 | 50 | 40.5 | 41 | 45.9 | 51 | +5.1 |
| 7 | Atlético Mineiro | 31 | 42.7 | 42 | 39.1 | 35 | 44.9 | 50 | +5.1 |
| 8 | Bahia | 32 | 50.1 | 45 | 44.5 | 40 | 48.1 | 50 | +1.9 |
| 9 | Vitória | 32 | 33 | 35 | 46.2 | 46 | 37.1 | 38 | +0.9 |
| 10 | Santos | 32 | 42.8 | 49 | 39.6 | 47 | 45.7 | 46 | +0.3 |
| 11 | Grêmio | 31 | 32.5 | 34 | 51.4 | 44 | 31.9 | 31 | -0.9 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 32 | 40 | 44 | 45.3 | 51 | 41.3 | 39 | -2.3 |
| 13 | Mirassol | 32 | 43 | 37 | 49.3 | 45 | 40.5 | 37 | -3.5 |
| 14 | São Paulo | 32 | 47.3 | 37 | 39.3 | 36 | 47.6 | 43 | -4.6 |
| 15 | Bragantino | 32 | 46.9 | 39 | 45 | 38 | 46.2 | 41 | -5.2 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 32 | 31.4 | 34 | 36.2 | 42 | 40.7 | 33 | -7.7 |
| 17 | Remo | 32 | 35.5 | 34 | 46.9 | 50 | 35.8 | 26 | -9.8 |
| 18 | Chapecoense | 31 | 34.3 | 32 | 54.1 | 63 | 32.1 | 21 | -11.1 |
| 19 | Internacional | 32 | 43.9 | 36 | 39.5 | 40 | 46.4 | 35 | -11.4 |
| 20 | Vasco da Gama | 31 | 54.1 | 39 | 34.3 | 45 | 52.2 | 38 | -14.2 |