Atlético Mineiro xG 2026

Atlético-MG xG Questions

Are Atlético-MG overperforming their xG this season?

Yes, Atlético-MG have taken 50 points over 31 Campeonato Brasileiro games in 2026, 5.30 more than the 44.70 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.

What is Atlético-MG's xG per game this season?

Atlético-MG create 1.36 expected goals (xG) per game over 31 Campeonato Brasileiro games in 2026, 42.13 in all, and have scored 42 goals from those chances, 0.13 fewer than that xG would expect.

What is Atlético-MG's xGA per game this season?

Atlético-MG allow 1.26 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 31 Campeonato Brasileiro games in 2026, 38.94 in all, and have conceded 35 goals from those chances, 3.94 fewer than that xGA would expect.

Who has the most xG for Atlético-MG this season?

Tomás Cuello has the most expected goals (xG) for Atlético-MG over 31 Campeonato Brasileiro games in 2026, 5.24 xG in 26 appearances, and has scored 6 goals; Mateo Cassierra is next with 5.10 xG.

Atlético-MG expected goals 2026: 2026

Games: 31
Expected goals (xG): 42.13
Goals scored: 42
Goals minus xG: -0.13
Expected goals against (xGA): 38.94
Goals conceded: 35
xGA minus goals conceded: +3.94
Expected points (xPts): 44.70
Points: 50
Points minus xPts: +5.30
Verdict: Running a little hot

Are Atlético-MG overperforming their expected goals?

Atlético-MG have taken 5.3 points more than their chances warranted over 31 games: -0.1 goals against their xG, and +3.9 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.

Atlético-MG results against expected goals by form window and venue

Window	Games	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xGA	Conceded	xGA minus conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
26/	31	42.13	42	-0.13	38.94	35	+3.94	44.70	50	+5.30
Last 10	10	14.79	15	+0.21	11.67	8	+3.67	15.81	21	+5.19
Last 5	5	7.40	7	-0.40	6.60	4	+2.60	7.38	11	+3.62
Home	16	25.22	27	+1.78	18.14	17	+1.14	26.54	35	+8.46
Away	15	16.91	15	-1.91	20.80	18	+2.80	18.16	15	-3.16

Atlético-MG expected goals match by match, 2026

Date	Competition	Opponent	Score	xG	xGA	xPts	Points	Deserved result
17 Oct	Campeonato Brasileiro	Coritiba (H)	1-0	1.49	0.69	1.96	3	W
11 Oct	Campeonato Brasileiro	Santos (H)	2-1	1.66	0.86	1.93	3	W
8 Oct	Campeonato Brasileiro	Athletico PR (A)	2-2	1.20	2.26	0.77	1	L
3 Oct	Campeonato Brasileiro	Bragantino (H)	1-0	0.52	1.30	0.74	3	L
19 Sep	Campeonato Brasileiro	Chapecoense (H)	1-1	2.53	1.49	1.98	1	W
12 Sep	Campeonato Brasileiro	Fluminense (H)	3-1	1.72	0.41	2.31	3	W
5 Sep	Campeonato Brasileiro	São Paulo (A)	2-0	0.64	2.04	0.51	0	L
29 Aug	Campeonato Brasileiro	Vitória (H)	2-1	1.66	0.65	2.10	3	W
22 Aug	Campeonato Brasileiro	Internacional (A)	0-0	0.90	1.47	0.95	1	L
16 Aug	Campeonato Brasileiro	Grêmio (H)	3-0	2.47	0.50	2.56	3	W
8 Aug	Campeonato Brasileiro	Remo (A)	2-2	1.28	0.69	1.81	1	W
26 Jul	Campeonato Brasileiro	Palmeiras (A)	1-2	1.13	2.11	0.80	3	L
21 Jul	Campeonato Brasileiro	Bahia (H)	1-1	1.43	1.39	1.40	1	W
31 May	Campeonato Brasileiro	Vasco (A)	0-1	0.58	1.48	0.70	3	L
24 May	Campeonato Brasileiro	Corinthians (A)	1-0	1.49	0.71	1.94	0	W
16 May	Campeonato Brasileiro	Mirassol (H)	3-1	2.24	1.30	1.95	3	W
10 May	Campeonato Brasileiro	Botafogo (H)	1-1	1.15	1.31	1.25	1	L
3 May	Campeonato Brasileiro	Cruzeiro (A)	1-3	1.52	1.30	1.53	3	W
26 Apr	Campeonato Brasileiro	Flamengo (H)	0-4	1.37	2.39	0.82	0	L
19 Apr	Campeonato Brasileiro	Coritiba (A)	2-0	1.09	0.84	1.54	0	W
11 Apr	Campeonato Brasileiro	Santos (A)	1-0	0.83	1.39	0.95	0	L
5 Apr	Campeonato Brasileiro	Athletico PR (H)	2-1	1.45	0.54	2.05	3	W
2 Apr	Campeonato Brasileiro	Chapecoense (A)	0-4	2.39	2.98	1.12	3	L
21 Mar	Campeonato Brasileiro	Fluminense (A)	1-0	1.63	0.73	2.02	0	W
18 Mar	Campeonato Brasileiro	São Paulo (H)	1-0	1.07	0.56	1.76	3	W
14 Mar	Campeonato Brasileiro	Vitória (A)	2-0	1.22	0.57	1.87	0	W
11 Mar	Campeonato Brasileiro	Internacional (H)	1-0	1.02	1.71	0.92	3	L
26 Feb	Campeonato Brasileiro	Grêmio (A)	2-1	0.39	0.94	0.82	0	L
11 Feb	Campeonato Brasileiro	Remo (H)	3-3	2.81	1.63	2.03	1	W
4 Feb	Campeonato Brasileiro	Bragantino (A)	1-0	0.62	1.29	0.83	0	L

Atlético-MG players: goals against expected goals, 2026

Player	Position	Apps	Minutes	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xG per 90
Vitor Hugo	defender	17	1111	1.36	3	+1.64	0.11
Igor Gomes	midfielder	13	519	0.66	2	+1.34	0.11
Thiago Borbas	attacker	6	306	0.88	2	+1.12	0.26
Bernard	attacker	25	1417	3.21	4	+0.79	0.20
Lyanco	defender	11	814	0.23	1	+0.77	0.03
Tomás Cuello	attacker	26	1871	5.24	6	+0.76	0.25
Victor Hugo	midfielder	24	1693	3.26	4	+0.74	0.17
Ruan	defender	20	1753	1.44	2	+0.56	0.07
Vitão	defender	6	540	0.52	1	+0.48	0.09
Reinier	midfielder	22	1089	3.56	4	+0.44	0.29
Dudu	attacker	18	419	1.56	2	+0.44	0.34
Iván Román	defender	6	443	0.70	1	+0.30	0.14
Mamady Cissé	midfielder	19	795	0.78	1	+0.22	0.09
Maycon	midfielder	19	1348	1.84	2	+0.16	0.12
Gustavo Scarpa	midfielder	13	378	0.84	1	+0.16	0.20
Alexsander	midfielder	11	495	0.54	0	-0.54	0.10
Alan Minda	attacker	18	785	2.58	2	-0.58	0.30
Fred	midfielder	6	396	0.61	0	-0.61	0.14
Alan Franco	midfielder	21	1690	0.64	0	-0.64	0.03
Natanael	defender	22	1844	0.68	0	-0.68	0.03
Hulk	attacker	12	912	1.75	1	-0.75	0.17
Renan Lodi	defender	26	2180	1.90	0	-1.90	0.08
Mateo Cassierra	attacker	22	1085	5.10	3	-2.10	0.42

Campeonato Brasileiro 2026: every team's points against expected points

#	Team	MP	xG	Goals	xGA	Conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
1	Palmeiras	31	43.1	54	31.4	22	49.6	66	+16.4
2	Flamengo	31	53.7	61	31.6	25	55.9	67	+11.1
3	Athletico PR	31	42.3	49	36.9	37	45.8	53	+7.2
4	Fluminense	31	42.3	49	40	39	44	51	+7
5	Atlético Mineiro	31	42.1	42	38.9	35	44.7	50	+5.3
6	Coritiba	31	32.9	38	48.5	49	33.7	39	+5.3
7	Cruzeiro	31	45.2	50	41.3	46	46.1	51	+4.9
8	Bahia	31	48.7	44	42.7	39	46.9	49	+2.1
9	Vitória	30	30.5	33	43.6	44	34.3	36	+1.7
10	Santos	31	41.1	48	38.2	46	44.2	45	+0.8
11	Grêmio	31	32.4	34	51.2	44	32.1	31	-1.1
12	Botafogo	31	39.2	44	42.8	48	40.8	39	-1.8
13	Mirassol	31	41.2	36	47.8	44	38.9	36	-2.9
14	São Paulo	31	45.8	36	37.5	35	46.4	42	-4.4
15	Bragantino	31	46.3	39	41.1	36	46	41	-5
16	Corinthians	30	28	31	33.3	38	37.6	32	-5.6
17	Remo	31	35.1	34	45.9	49	35	26	-9
18	Internacional	31	41.5	33	38.8	40	44.1	32	-12.1
19	Chapecoense	30	33.7	30	52.8	62	31.4	18	-13.4
20	Vasco da Gama	30	52	36	32.9	43	50.4	35	-15.4

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