No, Mirassol have taken 37 points over 32 Campeonato Brasileiro games in 2026, within 3.51 of the 40.51 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Mirassol create 1.34 expected goals (xG) per game over 32 Campeonato Brasileiro games in 2026, 43.03 in all, and have scored 37 goals from those chances, 6.03 fewer than that xG would expect.
Mirassol allow 1.54 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 32 Campeonato Brasileiro games in 2026, 49.31 in all, and have conceded 45 goals from those chances, 4.31 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Eduardo has the most expected goals (xG) for Mirassol over 32 Campeonato Brasileiro games in 2026, 4.65 xG in 24 appearances, and has scored 7 goals; Bruno Santos is next with 4.23 xG.
Mirassol's results and their chances agree, within 3.5 points of xPts over 32 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/ | 32 | 43.03 | 37 | -6.03 | 49.31 | 45 | +4.31 | 40.51 | 37 | -3.51 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 14.36 | 12 | -2.36 | 17.85 | 10 | +7.85 | 11.58 | 14 | +2.42 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 9.38 | 6 | -3.38 | 9.36 | 3 | +6.36 | 6.79 | 8 | +1.21 |
| Home | 17 | 25.24 | 24 | -1.24 | 22.19 | 22 | +0.19 | 25.19 | 27 | +1.81 |
| Away | 15 | 17.79 | 13 | -4.79 | 27.12 | 23 | +4.12 | 15.32 | 10 | -5.32 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct | Campeonato Brasileiro | São Paulo (H) | 1-1 | 1.81 | 1.51 | 1.57 | 1 | W |
| 16 Oct | Campeonato Brasileiro | Internacional (H) | 2-0 | 3.43 | 0.75 | 2.66 | 3 | W |
| 11 Oct | Campeonato Brasileiro | Bahia (A) | 1-0 | 1.66 | 2.81 | 0.81 | 0 | L |
| 7 Oct | Campeonato Brasileiro | Bragantino (A) | 1-1 | 1.31 | 2.67 | 0.67 | 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | Campeonato Brasileiro | Botafogo (H) | 2-0 | 1.17 | 1.62 | 1.08 | 3 | L |
| 13 Sep | Campeonato Brasileiro | Vitória (H) | 2-2 | 1.76 | 0.69 | 2.12 | 1 | W |
| 6 Sep | Campeonato Brasileiro | Coritiba (A) | 1-2 | 1.59 | 2.20 | 1.04 | 3 | L |
| 2 Sep | Campeonato Brasileiro | Flamengo (A) | 2-0 | 0.52 | 2.07 | 0.42 | 0 | L |
| 30 Aug | Campeonato Brasileiro | Palmeiras (H) | 1-1 | 0.84 | 1.42 | 0.94 | 1 | L |
| 23 Aug | Campeonato Brasileiro | Santos (A) | 1-1 | 0.27 | 2.11 | 0.27 | 1 | L |
| 16 Aug | Campeonato Brasileiro | Flamengo (H) | 1-5 | 1.34 | 3.16 | 0.52 | 0 | L |
| 9 Aug | Campeonato Brasileiro | Cruzeiro (A) | 3-1 | 1.62 | 1.00 | 1.81 | 0 | W |
| 29 Jul | Campeonato Brasileiro | Remo (H) | 2-1 | 1.45 | 1.43 | 1.39 | 3 | W |
| 25 Jul | Campeonato Brasileiro | Vasco (A) | 1-1 | 1.61 | 2.51 | 0.91 | 1 | L |
| 17 Jul | Campeonato Brasileiro | Grêmio (H) | 2-1 | 1.62 | 0.83 | 1.93 | 3 | W |
| 30 May | Campeonato Brasileiro | Athletico PR (A) | 1-0 | 0.57 | 1.10 | 0.90 | 0 | L |
| 23 May | Campeonato Brasileiro | Fluminense (H) | 1-0 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 1.32 | 3 | D |
| 16 May | Campeonato Brasileiro | Atlético-MG (A) | 3-1 | 1.30 | 2.24 | 0.84 | 0 | L |
| 10 May | Campeonato Brasileiro | Chapecoense (H) | 1-1 | 1.56 | 0.84 | 1.88 | 1 | W |
| 3 May | Campeonato Brasileiro | Corinthians (H) | 2-1 | 1.10 | 0.47 | 1.87 | 3 | W |
| 26 Apr | Campeonato Brasileiro | São Paulo (A) | 1-0 | 1.34 | 1.50 | 1.27 | 0 | L |
| 19 Apr | Campeonato Brasileiro | Internacional (A) | 1-2 | 1.38 | 1.45 | 1.33 | 3 | L |
| 11 Apr | Campeonato Brasileiro | Bahia (H) | 1-2 | 1.67 | 1.65 | 1.40 | 0 | W |
| 5 Apr | Campeonato Brasileiro | Bragantino (H) | 0-1 | 0.90 | 1.66 | 0.86 | 0 | L |
| 1 Apr | Campeonato Brasileiro | Botafogo (A) | 3-2 | 1.09 | 2.37 | 0.66 | 0 | L |
| 22 Mar | Campeonato Brasileiro | Vitória (A) | 1-0 | 0.90 | 0.86 | 1.37 | 0 | W |
| 18 Mar | Campeonato Brasileiro | Coritiba (H) | 0-1 | 1.75 | 1.16 | 1.77 | 0 | W |
| 15 Mar | Campeonato Brasileiro | Palmeiras (A) | 1-0 | 0.87 | 0.64 | 1.52 | 0 | W |
| 11 Mar | Campeonato Brasileiro | Santos (H) | 2-2 | 1.36 | 1.74 | 1.13 | 1 | L |
| 11 Feb | Campeonato Brasileiro | Cruzeiro (H) | 2-2 | 2.22 | 1.80 | 1.64 | 1 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo | midfielder | 24 | 1406 | 4.65 | 7 | +2.35 | 0.30 |
| Negueba | attacker | 9 | 782 | 0.85 | 2 | +1.15 | 0.10 |
| Igor Formiga | defender | 29 | 2357 | 2.96 | 4 | +1.04 | 0.11 |
| André Luis | attacker | 19 | 667 | 2.17 | 3 | +0.83 | 0.29 |
| Denilson | midfielder | 23 | 1491 | 0.41 | 1 | +0.59 | 0.02 |
| Antonio Galeano | attacker | 11 | 285 | 0.45 | 1 | +0.55 | 0.14 |
| Lucas Oliveira | defender | 12 | 706 | 0.47 | 1 | +0.53 | 0.06 |
| Edson Carioca | attacker | 22 | 1121 | 2.50 | 3 | +0.50 | 0.20 |
| Willian Machado | defender | 27 | 2363 | 0.62 | 1 | +0.38 | 0.02 |
| Shaylon | midfielder | 24 | 1182 | 0.69 | 1 | +0.31 | 0.05 |
| João Victor | defender | 30 | 2638 | 2.04 | 2 | -0.04 | 0.07 |
| Gustavo Silva | attacker | 7 | 367 | 1.19 | 1 | -0.19 | 0.29 |
| José Aldo | midfielder | 17 | 1208 | 0.56 | 0 | -0.56 | 0.04 |
| Japa | midfielder | 6 | 316 | 0.58 | 0 | -0.58 | 0.17 |
| Neto Moura | midfielder | 20 | 1304 | 0.59 | 0 | -0.59 | 0.04 |
| Everton Galdino | attacker | 8 | 232 | 0.67 | 0 | -0.67 | 0.26 |
| Gabriel Pires | midfielder | 7 | 250 | 0.68 | 0 | -0.68 | 0.25 |
| Carlos Eduardo | attacker | 19 | 702 | 1.76 | 1 | -0.76 | 0.23 |
| Nathan Fogaça | attacker | 10 | 386 | 3.10 | 2 | -1.10 | 0.72 |
| Bruno Santos | attacker | 15 | 1089 | 4.23 | 3 | -1.23 | 0.35 |
| Tiquinho Soares | attacker | 7 | 371 | 2.79 | 0 | -2.79 | 0.68 |
| Reinaldo | defender | 29 | 2501 | 4.09 | 1 | -3.09 | 0.15 |
| Alesson | attacker | 28 | 1800 | 3.35 | 0 | -3.35 | 0.17 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 32 | 46.4 | 56 | 31.9 | 22 | 51.9 | 69 | +17.1 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 31 | 53.7 | 61 | 31.6 | 25 | 55.9 | 67 | +11.1 |
| 3 | Athletico PR | 32 | 42.8 | 50 | 37.9 | 38 | 46.9 | 54 | +7.1 |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 32 | 46.4 | 51 | 41.8 | 46 | 48 | 54 | +6 |
| 5 | Coritiba | 31 | 33.1 | 38 | 49.1 | 49 | 33.5 | 39 | +5.5 |
| 6 | Fluminense | 32 | 43.6 | 50 | 40.5 | 41 | 45.9 | 51 | +5.1 |
| 7 | Atlético Mineiro | 31 | 42.7 | 42 | 39.1 | 35 | 44.9 | 50 | +5.1 |
| 8 | Bahia | 32 | 50.1 | 45 | 44.5 | 40 | 48.1 | 50 | +1.9 |
| 9 | Vitória | 32 | 33 | 35 | 46.2 | 46 | 37.1 | 38 | +0.9 |
| 10 | Santos | 32 | 42.8 | 49 | 39.6 | 47 | 45.7 | 46 | +0.3 |
| 11 | Grêmio | 31 | 32.5 | 34 | 51.4 | 44 | 31.9 | 31 | -0.9 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 32 | 40 | 44 | 45.3 | 51 | 41.3 | 39 | -2.3 |
| 13 | Mirassol | 32 | 43 | 37 | 49.3 | 45 | 40.5 | 37 | -3.5 |
| 14 | São Paulo | 32 | 47.3 | 37 | 39.3 | 36 | 47.6 | 43 | -4.6 |
| 15 | Bragantino | 32 | 46.9 | 39 | 45 | 38 | 46.2 | 41 | -5.2 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 32 | 31.4 | 34 | 36.2 | 42 | 40.7 | 33 | -7.7 |
| 17 | Remo | 32 | 35.5 | 34 | 46.9 | 50 | 35.8 | 26 | -9.8 |
| 18 | Chapecoense | 31 | 34.3 | 32 | 54.1 | 63 | 32.1 | 21 | -11.1 |
| 19 | Internacional | 32 | 43.9 | 36 | 39.5 | 40 | 46.4 | 35 | -11.4 |
| 20 | Vasco da Gama | 31 | 54.1 | 39 | 34.3 | 45 | 52.2 | 38 | -14.2 |