No, Grêmio have taken 31 points over 31 Campeonato Brasileiro games in 2026, within 1.05 of the 32.05 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Grêmio create 1.04 expected goals (xG) per game over 31 Campeonato Brasileiro games in 2026, 32.37 in all, and have scored 34 goals from those chances, 1.63 more than that xG would expect.
Grêmio allow 1.65 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 31 Campeonato Brasileiro games in 2026, 51.14 in all, and have conceded 44 goals from those chances, 7.14 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Carlos Vinícius has the most expected goals (xG) for Grêmio over 31 Campeonato Brasileiro games in 2026, 8.56 xG in 30 appearances, and has scored 11 goals; Gustavo Martins is next with 2.55 xG.
Grêmio's results and their chances agree, within 1.1 points of xPts over 31 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/ | 31 | 32.37 | 34 | +1.63 | 51.14 | 44 | +7.14 | 32.05 | 31 | -1.05 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 10.67 | 10 | -0.67 | 19.92 | 17 | +2.92 | 8.74 | 6 | -2.74 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.90 | 6 | -0.90 | 8.11 | 9 | -0.89 | 6.21 | 3 | -3.21 |
| Home | 16 | 20.86 | 25 | +4.14 | 25.27 | 21 | +4.27 | 20.03 | 26 | +5.97 |
| Away | 15 | 11.51 | 9 | -2.51 | 25.87 | 23 | +2.87 | 12.02 | 5 | -7.02 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Campeonato Brasileiro | Cruzeiro (H) | 2-4 | 2.17 | 1.33 | 1.90 | 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | Campeonato Brasileiro | Internacional (H) | 1-1 | 1.33 | 1.12 | 1.51 | 1 | W |
| 7 Oct | Campeonato Brasileiro | Remo (A) | 1-1 | 1.84 | 1.87 | 1.37 | 1 | L |
| 20 Sep | Campeonato Brasileiro | Palmeiras (H) | 0-0 | 0.92 | 2.75 | 0.44 | 1 | L |
| 16 Sep | Campeonato Brasileiro | Botafogo (A) | 3-2 | 0.64 | 1.04 | 0.99 | 0 | L |
| 12 Sep | Campeonato Brasileiro | Vasco (H) | 1-2 | 1.32 | 2.21 | 0.87 | 0 | L |
| 7 Sep | Campeonato Brasileiro | Vitória (A) | 1-0 | 0.64 | 1.57 | 0.71 | 0 | L |
| 30 Aug | Campeonato Brasileiro | Chapecoense (H) | 3-1 | 0.64 | 3.27 | 0.21 | 3 | L |
| 23 Aug | Campeonato Brasileiro | Bragantino (A) | 1-0 | 0.67 | 2.29 | 0.44 | 0 | L |
| 16 Aug | Campeonato Brasileiro | Atlético-MG (A) | 3-0 | 0.50 | 2.47 | 0.30 | 0 | L |
| 8 Aug | Campeonato Brasileiro | São Paulo (H) | 2-1 | 1.35 | 1.98 | 1.00 | 3 | L |
| 26 Jul | Campeonato Brasileiro | Fluminense (H) | 1-1 | 0.92 | 1.14 | 1.18 | 1 | L |
| 17 Jul | Campeonato Brasileiro | Mirassol (A) | 2-1 | 0.83 | 1.62 | 0.83 | 0 | L |
| 30 May | Campeonato Brasileiro | Corinthians (H) | 1-3 | 1.58 | 1.79 | 1.26 | 0 | L |
| 23 May | Campeonato Brasileiro | Santos (H) | 3-2 | 1.20 | 1.16 | 1.39 | 3 | W |
| 17 May | Campeonato Brasileiro | Bahia (A) | 1-1 | 0.17 | 1.63 | 0.32 | 1 | L |
| 10 May | Campeonato Brasileiro | Flamengo (H) | 0-1 | 0.39 | 2.27 | 0.30 | 0 | L |
| 2 May | Campeonato Brasileiro | Athletico PR (A) | 0-0 | 1.01 | 1.07 | 1.30 | 1 | L |
| 26 Apr | Campeonato Brasileiro | Coritiba (H) | 1-0 | 1.46 | 0.76 | 1.88 | 3 | W |
| 18 Apr | Campeonato Brasileiro | Cruzeiro (A) | 2-0 | 0.72 | 2.00 | 0.58 | 0 | L |
| 11 Apr | Campeonato Brasileiro | Internacional (A) | 0-0 | 0.23 | 0.74 | 0.76 | 1 | L |
| 5 Apr | Campeonato Brasileiro | Remo (H) | 0-0 | 0.93 | 1.92 | 0.75 | 1 | L |
| 3 Apr | Campeonato Brasileiro | Palmeiras (A) | 2-1 | 0.62 | 0.87 | 1.09 | 0 | L |
| 22 Mar | Campeonato Brasileiro | Vasco (A) | 2-1 | 0.75 | 1.47 | 0.84 | 0 | L |
| 19 Mar | Campeonato Brasileiro | Vitória (H) | 2-0 | 1.14 | 0.44 | 1.92 | 3 | W |
| 16 Mar | Campeonato Brasileiro | Chapecoense (A) | 1-1 | 0.68 | 1.24 | 0.91 | 1 | L |
| 13 Mar | Campeonato Brasileiro | Bragantino (H) | 1-1 | 1.25 | 1.60 | 1.14 | 1 | L |
| 26 Feb | Campeonato Brasileiro | Atlético-MG (H) | 2-1 | 0.94 | 0.39 | 1.81 | 3 | W |
| 12 Feb | Campeonato Brasileiro | São Paulo (A) | 2-0 | 0.43 | 4.43 | 0.06 | 0 | L |
| 5 Feb | Campeonato Brasileiro | Botafogo (H) | 5-3 | 3.32 | 1.14 | 2.47 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Vinícius | attacker | 30 | 2348 | 8.56 | 11 | +2.44 | 0.33 |
| Cristian Pavón | attacker | 28 | 2128 | 0.99 | 3 | +2.01 | 0.04 |
| Marlon | defender | 12 | 1009 | 0.22 | 1 | +0.78 | 0.02 |
| Viery | defender | 13 | 1169 | 0.22 | 1 | +0.78 | 0.02 |
| Wallace | defender | 10 | 900 | 1.23 | 2 | +0.77 | 0.12 |
| Jovane Cabral | attacker | 6 | 225 | 0.37 | 1 | +0.63 | 0.15 |
| Walter Kannemann | defender | 8 | 564 | 0.42 | 1 | +0.58 | 0.07 |
| Diego Caito | defender | 9 | 713 | 0.47 | 1 | +0.53 | 0.06 |
| Gustavo Martins | defender | 21 | 1662 | 2.55 | 3 | +0.45 | 0.14 |
| Edenilson | midfielder | 3 | 152 | 0.56 | 1 | +0.44 | 0.33 |
| Erick Noriega | midfielder | 22 | 1625 | 0.56 | 1 | +0.44 | 0.03 |
| Gabriel Mec | midfielder | 16 | 713 | 1.82 | 2 | +0.18 | 0.23 |
| Mathías Villasanti | midfielder | 12 | 1015 | 1.09 | 1 | -0.09 | 0.10 |
| Tetê | attacker | 25 | 1109 | 2.35 | 2 | -0.35 | 0.19 |
| Juan Nardoni | midfielder | 18 | 1090 | 1.55 | 1 | -0.55 | 0.13 |
| Filip Krovinovic | midfielder | 8 | 596 | 0.68 | 0 | -0.68 | 0.10 |
| Willian | attacker | 9 | 372 | 0.69 | 0 | -0.69 | 0.17 |
| Martin Braithwaite | attacker | 22 | 686 | 0.69 | 0 | -0.69 | 0.09 |
| André Henrique | attacker | 5 | 103 | 1.45 | 0 | -1.45 | 1.27 |
| José Enamorado | attacker | 26 | 1084 | 1.50 | 0 | -1.50 | 0.12 |
| Francis Amuzu | attacker | 26 | 1733 | 2.52 | 1 | -1.52 | 0.13 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 31 | 43.1 | 54 | 31.4 | 22 | 49.6 | 66 | +16.4 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 31 | 53.7 | 61 | 31.6 | 25 | 55.9 | 67 | +11.1 |
| 3 | Athletico PR | 31 | 42.3 | 49 | 36.9 | 37 | 45.8 | 53 | +7.2 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 31 | 42.3 | 49 | 40 | 39 | 44 | 51 | +7 |
| 5 | Atlético Mineiro | 31 | 42.1 | 42 | 38.9 | 35 | 44.7 | 50 | +5.3 |
| 6 | Coritiba | 31 | 32.9 | 38 | 48.5 | 49 | 33.7 | 39 | +5.3 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro | 31 | 45.2 | 50 | 41.3 | 46 | 46.1 | 51 | +4.9 |
| 8 | Bahia | 31 | 48.7 | 44 | 42.7 | 39 | 46.9 | 49 | +2.1 |
| 9 | Vitória | 30 | 30.5 | 33 | 43.6 | 44 | 34.3 | 36 | +1.7 |
| 10 | Santos | 31 | 41.1 | 48 | 38.2 | 46 | 44.2 | 45 | +0.8 |
| 11 | Grêmio | 31 | 32.4 | 34 | 51.2 | 44 | 32.1 | 31 | -1.1 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 31 | 39.2 | 44 | 42.8 | 48 | 40.8 | 39 | -1.8 |
| 13 | Mirassol | 31 | 41.2 | 36 | 47.8 | 44 | 38.9 | 36 | -2.9 |
| 14 | São Paulo | 31 | 45.8 | 36 | 37.5 | 35 | 46.4 | 42 | -4.4 |
| 15 | Bragantino | 31 | 46.3 | 39 | 41.1 | 36 | 46 | 41 | -5 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 28 | 31 | 33.3 | 38 | 37.6 | 32 | -5.6 |
| 17 | Remo | 31 | 35.1 | 34 | 45.9 | 49 | 35 | 26 | -9 |
| 18 | Internacional | 31 | 41.5 | 33 | 38.8 | 40 | 44.1 | 32 | -12.1 |
| 19 | Chapecoense | 30 | 33.7 | 30 | 52.8 | 62 | 31.4 | 18 | -13.4 |
| 20 | Vasco da Gama | 30 | 52 | 36 | 32.9 | 43 | 50.4 | 35 | -15.4 |